I don't know about you, but all this winning is amazing!
We can now help directly fund Iran's future nuclear weapons program thank's to Trump's "excursion."
Jonathan V. Last
Jun 23, 2026
Iran Wins
Donald Trump and JD Vance’s slow-motion surrender continues in Switzerland. Yesterday the United States showed its full-spectrum dominance and strength by . . . giving the Islamic Republic a license to sell crude oil and petroleum products on the open market.
This is a surrender of the sanctions regime which has been built up over decades. And the best part?
Trump has agreed to let Iran sell oil to America.
Here’s Bloomberg:
(1) Cui bono? At first blush it seems like only Iran benefits from this concession. Their tankers become unsanctioned. They get to move millions of barrels of oil. They get to sell their oil at market price instead of having to take a gray-market haircut. They get access to hard currency, routed through normal banking channels.
But Trump is getting something, too. He needs Iranian oil in the marketplace as much—or possibly even more—than the Iranians need cash. Bloomberg again:
Oops.
(2) We are not going back. It’s funny that the license Trump and Vance granted Iran is only for sixty days. That makes it seem like it’s just a trial period and America could decide to cancel it, or not renew.
The problem is, once Iranian oil is in the international supply line, they have
Trump over a barrel.1 For Trump to restrict their supply again would mean pushing oil prices up again. I promise you: There will be strong market incentives for Trump to maintain the new status quo.
And then there’s foreign pressure. Having Iranian oil flowing, in the open, will be immensely helpful to China, India, Japan, and the rest of Asia. China has leverage over Trump in many areas. India and Japan are, supposedly, keystone allies. If it looks like Trump is going to pull the Iranian license and return to sanctions, a lot of countries will have an interest in pressuring America not to do so.
The status quo will be powerful; Trump is only pretending that he might return to sanctions. This is the new normal.
What did America get in return? The Iranians agreed to keep talking to us about other things we can give them in the hopes that, maybe, eventually, they’ll also agree to talk to us about making some promises about their future pursuit of nuclear materials.
(3) Incentives. America and Iran are at odds. But Trump’s and Iran’s incentives are aligned.
First, Trump needs oil supply to help his political position; the Iranians want cash. So the mullahs can give Trump what he needs and get what they want in return.
Second, Trump / MAGA / America First don’t want to enforce international law and be responsible for the freedom of navigation which undergirds the global economic order. And the mullahs want to annex control of the Strait of Hormuz—again, they’re aligned.
Third, while it is important for Trump that Iran not test a nuclear weapon while he is in office, he does not care—at all—what comes after that. He’s 80. What does it matter to him if the Iranians are a nuclear power in 2035 or 2040? And the Iranians will be happy to quietly move toward nukes while giving Trump the plausible deniability he needs to pretend that he got an amazing deal. Their nuclear program is safer than ever, because as soon as Trump signs on the line that is dotted, Iran can announce that if anyone attacks them again for any reason, they’ll close the strait again.
Pete Hegseth’s Defense Department says that one of the accomplishments of the Iran war was to “reestablish deterrence.” They must mean Iran’s deterrence. Against us.
I hope America likes losing. Because paying for the privilege of buying Iranian gasoline is just the start.
www.thebulwark.com
We can now help directly fund Iran's future nuclear weapons program thank's to Trump's "excursion."
Thanks to Trump You Can Now Fill Your Car with Iranian Gasoline!
Jonathan V. Last
Jun 23, 2026
Iran Wins
Donald Trump and JD Vance’s slow-motion surrender continues in Switzerland. Yesterday the United States showed its full-spectrum dominance and strength by . . . giving the Islamic Republic a license to sell crude oil and petroleum products on the open market.This is a surrender of the sanctions regime which has been built up over decades. And the best part?
Trump has agreed to let Iran sell oil to America.
Here’s Bloomberg:
However bad this looks, the reality is worse. Let’s talk about who holds the cards, shall we? Hint: It’s not the American president.
(1) Cui bono? At first blush it seems like only Iran benefits from this concession. Their tankers become unsanctioned. They get to move millions of barrels of oil. They get to sell their oil at market price instead of having to take a gray-market haircut. They get access to hard currency, routed through normal banking channels.
But Trump is getting something, too. He needs Iranian oil in the marketplace as much—or possibly even more—than the Iranians need cash. Bloomberg again:
Trump is so desperate to get gas prices down that he’s maximizing the flow of oil globally and he doesn’t care who makes money off of it. Which means that even here, it’s the Iranians who have leverage over Trump. Trump needs their oil in the global supply market more than they need cash.
Oops.
(2) We are not going back. It’s funny that the license Trump and Vance granted Iran is only for sixty days. That makes it seem like it’s just a trial period and America could decide to cancel it, or not renew.
The problem is, once Iranian oil is in the international supply line, they have
Trump over a barrel.1 For Trump to restrict their supply again would mean pushing oil prices up again. I promise you: There will be strong market incentives for Trump to maintain the new status quo.
And then there’s foreign pressure. Having Iranian oil flowing, in the open, will be immensely helpful to China, India, Japan, and the rest of Asia. China has leverage over Trump in many areas. India and Japan are, supposedly, keystone allies. If it looks like Trump is going to pull the Iranian license and return to sanctions, a lot of countries will have an interest in pressuring America not to do so.
The status quo will be powerful; Trump is only pretending that he might return to sanctions. This is the new normal.
What did America get in return? The Iranians agreed to keep talking to us about other things we can give them in the hopes that, maybe, eventually, they’ll also agree to talk to us about making some promises about their future pursuit of nuclear materials.
(3) Incentives. America and Iran are at odds. But Trump’s and Iran’s incentives are aligned.
First, Trump needs oil supply to help his political position; the Iranians want cash. So the mullahs can give Trump what he needs and get what they want in return.
Second, Trump / MAGA / America First don’t want to enforce international law and be responsible for the freedom of navigation which undergirds the global economic order. And the mullahs want to annex control of the Strait of Hormuz—again, they’re aligned.
Third, while it is important for Trump that Iran not test a nuclear weapon while he is in office, he does not care—at all—what comes after that. He’s 80. What does it matter to him if the Iranians are a nuclear power in 2035 or 2040? And the Iranians will be happy to quietly move toward nukes while giving Trump the plausible deniability he needs to pretend that he got an amazing deal. Their nuclear program is safer than ever, because as soon as Trump signs on the line that is dotted, Iran can announce that if anyone attacks them again for any reason, they’ll close the strait again.
Pete Hegseth’s Defense Department says that one of the accomplishments of the Iran war was to “reestablish deterrence.” They must mean Iran’s deterrence. Against us.
I hope America likes losing. Because paying for the privilege of buying Iranian gasoline is just the start.
Thanks to Trump You Can Now Fill Your Car with Iranian Gasoline!
Hope you’re not sick and tired of all the losing—because Trump is just getting started.
www.thebulwark.com
