On what terms and in what fashion? IMHO, this situation is pretty fluid and there are a variety of possibilities. I think we cannot simply declare victory and leave, not with the Strait of Hormuz essentially still in the control of the Iranians. We need some kind of treaty in place before we withdraw.
Unless we are going to invest a whole lot more time and money in bombing Iran and destroying Iranian infrastructure, we are not likely going to succeed in getting Iran to settle on the kind of terms Trump wants. As the Fall elections draw closer, I think Trump will be under significant,. and increasing, pressure to get out of Iran and get some kind of deal that helps stabilize world crude oil and LNG prices. He should just try to get the best deal he can, and work toward that as quickly as possible.
It seems obvious that we HAVE to have the Strait of Hormuz opened with no (or very minimal) Iranian tolls, if only to stabilize the supply, and price, of crude oil, LNG, fertilizer, etc. The economic pressure that a closed Strait of Hormuz puts on Trump is certainly more leverage than promises from Iran about its future nuclear weapons development, which promises are essentially meaningless without some viable method of verifying things on (and under) the ground in Iran. So I think that Trump (if he has any sense or gets any decent advice from his subordinates), decides to make do with some vague and largely meaningless representations from Iran as to its agreement "never to pursue nuclear weapons."
I also hope that the U.S. does not have to invest much money in rebuilding Iranian infrastructure, whether we destroyed it or not. If we do end up committing significant resources to this, Trump will open himself up to charges that he is giving up a lot more than the "pallet of cash" (i.e., frozen Iranian assets) Obama ended up giving back to Iran when THAT treaty was signed.
How/when do you see the U.S. getting out of Iran?
Unless we are going to invest a whole lot more time and money in bombing Iran and destroying Iranian infrastructure, we are not likely going to succeed in getting Iran to settle on the kind of terms Trump wants. As the Fall elections draw closer, I think Trump will be under significant,. and increasing, pressure to get out of Iran and get some kind of deal that helps stabilize world crude oil and LNG prices. He should just try to get the best deal he can, and work toward that as quickly as possible.
It seems obvious that we HAVE to have the Strait of Hormuz opened with no (or very minimal) Iranian tolls, if only to stabilize the supply, and price, of crude oil, LNG, fertilizer, etc. The economic pressure that a closed Strait of Hormuz puts on Trump is certainly more leverage than promises from Iran about its future nuclear weapons development, which promises are essentially meaningless without some viable method of verifying things on (and under) the ground in Iran. So I think that Trump (if he has any sense or gets any decent advice from his subordinates), decides to make do with some vague and largely meaningless representations from Iran as to its agreement "never to pursue nuclear weapons."
I also hope that the U.S. does not have to invest much money in rebuilding Iranian infrastructure, whether we destroyed it or not. If we do end up committing significant resources to this, Trump will open himself up to charges that he is giving up a lot more than the "pallet of cash" (i.e., frozen Iranian assets) Obama ended up giving back to Iran when THAT treaty was signed.
How/when do you see the U.S. getting out of Iran?
