UVA is probably gonna be in the preseason top 15 and a top 3 team in the ACC. We'd be an underdog against them if it were the first game of the season.
The best things about preseason expectations is they are meaningless. UVA returns all available players that didn't graduate, but they didn't add anyone worthwhile through the portal or recruiting class. So they'll have experience, but their overall talent level isn't as good as UK. And like you said, if it was the first game they'd be favored bc of the experience factor. But a game in December could go either way.
As for their ACC finish, the unbalanced ACC schedule will dramatically affect that. They have to play the dookies twice. Their only games against UNC, Miami, and Clemson are road games. And the team they don't play at all this year is Wake Forest (so they are robbed of that surefire win.) So among the top 6 projected ACC teams they have probably the least favorable schedule.