Who Do We Lose
- Thread starter tmatheny
- Start date
Decaro, lynch, Gavin, Owen, Schaff, Hynek are all the definite guys gone. Would think Paulson, Cooper, and Macon will be back.
I would guess all of DeCaro, Lynch, Gallaher, Schaffner, and Hull are gone to the draft and there’s at least some draft risk with Winslow, Paulsen, and Nicholson - I’ve also seen incoming FR C Joseph Lawson listed on a draft board.
Other contributors that will graduate are Hynek, French, Maginnis, Kellis, Padgett, and Chmielewski. There will of course be some transfers out too.
Incoming transfer CF CJ Egrie (Holy Cross) was the Patriot League Player of the Year. SS Davis Baker (Penn) was two time 2nd Team All-Ivy. MIF Kole Fenton (Walters State) hit almost .400 this year with 10 homers. I think Joey Ruller (Queens) and Tim Tyler (Walters State) have a chance to contribute as pitchers. Still plenty more to be added through the portal I’m sure.
I’m no good at projecting how incoming FRs will turn out but Britt and Tarkenton are highly regarded arms and two-way Harrison Ailshie is about as decorated of a player to come out of Rowan County as there has been in recent memory (and there’s been quite a few).
Other contributors that will graduate are Hynek, French, Maginnis, Kellis, Padgett, and Chmielewski. There will of course be some transfers out too.
Incoming transfer CF CJ Egrie (Holy Cross) was the Patriot League Player of the Year. SS Davis Baker (Penn) was two time 2nd Team All-Ivy. MIF Kole Fenton (Walters State) hit almost .400 this year with 10 homers. I think Joey Ruller (Queens) and Tim Tyler (Walters State) have a chance to contribute as pitchers. Still plenty more to be added through the portal I’m sure.
I’m no good at projecting how incoming FRs will turn out but Britt and Tarkenton are highly regarded arms and two-way Harrison Ailshie is about as decorated of a player to come out of Rowan County as there has been in recent memory (and there’s been quite a few).
Until the NCAA decides on the 5 for 5 rule, I won't make any draft predictions. If the draft-eligible juniors get 2 more years of eligibility, they can come back and still have bargaining power next year. While DeCaro has been here 3 years, age-wise he is still just a soph. Nobody knows how much his recent struggles have impacted his draft status for this year. OTOH, if Lynch has another big game this weekend, he's probably gone.
If we can keep our coaching staff I’ll be happy
I’ve had the same thought with DeCaro and 5-in-5, but my guess is that he’ll go in the first 5 rounds and the risk associated with returning will ultimately be too great.
Lynch is the interesting one for me. Most guys who are draft-eligible leave once eligible because they are juniors. The reason is seniors CAN'T return to school. Juniors arw often drafted higher because they have the option of returning to school if they don't like their draft position (which is related to money). Lynch is a sophomore and could return to re-enter the draft as a junior if he thinks he could improve his stock. While I'm not expecting that to happen, it is plausible.
Sure, all that is true. And while draft positions have a slot value.. teams don’t have to pay that amount it can be +\- that value. But I’d bet if he’s drafted in the first 8 rounds he’s gone downing on value. There’s not a ton of guys his size and stature that can do the things he does on the mound. He was holding 98 in the 7th at 105 pitches. I wouldn’t get my hopes up on a return.
Hopes aren't up, but he's the type who could bypass a 7th-8th round draft pick and parlay that into a 2nd-3th round pick if he's an all-America /ACC pitcher of the year type player. He has that type of arm.
I agree he's probably gone...he just has a unique opportunity that most players don't have.
Gotta be honest... Thought he was going to make that jump THIS year. Just hope the rest of his postseason is long and as successful as his first start last week. Despite how he pitched this year, we are exactly in the best spot we all thought preseason going into this weekend. If he gets 3 more wins this season, I'm pretty sure we'll be national champions...
I was hoping for a little more, as well. To be fair, this is his first full season starting, though.
Sidebar...I'm not sure what Gaines and Co are doing, but everyone's velocity is up this year. They said Jackson Rose threw in the upper 80s in high school. Lynch, Duff, even Flannery and Padgett are up.
Whatever our staff is doing, almost everyone else is doing too. Velo is up EVERYWHERE. Weird to see every team we've played (even the bottom of the ACC and midweek schools with multiple guys throwing over 95. It's crazy! And still feel like hitters are ahead in the battle right now...
On paper, I think we are in a better place next year than we were entering this season. But we crushed the portal this year. If we come close to that again, we will be in the national seed conversation again.
Why do people think Macon Winslow is coming back? Just last month Prep Baseball Report had him going around the 3rd-to-5th round.
Even with the 5-for-5 rule, we see draft eligible sophomores opt to leave for the draft every year. It’ll be great for juniors who don’t go in the Top 10 rounds to have another year of leverage but I’m fairly certain Winslow will be taken by the 10th round.
Last year, 576 of the 615 players drafted sign with their MLB teams.
For the first 10 rounds, 309 of 311 draftees signed (99.4%).
I think the fair expectation is that only Howe and Nicholson will return to the everyday lineup.
Even with the 5-for-5 rule, we see draft eligible sophomores opt to leave for the draft every year. It’ll be great for juniors who don’t go in the Top 10 rounds to have another year of leverage but I’m fairly certain Winslow will be taken by the 10th round.
Last year, 576 of the 615 players drafted sign with their MLB teams.
For the first 10 rounds, 309 of 311 draftees signed (99.4%).
I think the fair expectation is that only Howe and Nicholson will return to the everyday lineup.
Thanks for sharing. I hadn’t seen Winslow listed that high but I believe it. It’d be great to hang onto 2 of the 3 of Winslow, Paulsen, and Nicholson. Hopefully one of the 2 incoming FR Catchers can have something like the Freshman season Stevenson had - they’ve got the same rating he had from Perfect Game for whatever that’s worth. Devin Russell gives some experience and what seems to be pretty serious power in the room too.
The MLB teams do their due diligence, and typically only draft players they know will sign. If approved, the 5 for 5 rule is a potential game changer for juniors, because they don't risk losing their bargaining power if they return.
Using the Baseball America draft rankings, DeCaro is #90. Last year, the 90th pick signed for $649k, when the slot value was $865k. Signing for $200k under slot value is a function of knowing if they return for their senior year, they might get just 1/10th of their current offer.
Don’t get me wrong, I’d love for Winslow to return. I’m genuinely surprised that so many on the board think he’s coming back. I thought it was pretty straightforward that he’d only spend one season in Chapel Hill.
We’ll have to see how the rest of the portal and draft go but I’d think that Devin Russell is likely the first choice catcher heading into the fall. His average isn’t great but neither was Colin Hynek’s — career .228 hitter at Georgia State — but as we’ve seen they’ve done a really nice job with Hynek. This staff will be more concerned with OPS which Russell’s was .976 this season, which is higher than Winslow’s (.930). Of course, in fewer games played.
Yeah, I acknowledged the impact for juniors in my original post. I still think based on the percentages of players signing since the draft shrunk to 20 rounds that we’ll still see the vast majority of draft eligible sophomores and juniors opt to sign instead of returning to college.
But the added negotiating power with the potential 5-for-5 rule combined with the increase in scholarships, revenue sharing and NIL will likely yield players who previously would’ve been no doubters to sign to return for another season if the price isn’t right. I just don’t think it’s going to shift the percentages of drafted players signing that much.
True, but it could impact who actually gets drafted. I think juniors will be less likely to accept offers that are many thousands less than slot value. Last year, 20 players drafted in the 3rd round signed for under their slot value. Granted, some were just a few thousand less, but about half signed for at least $150k under their slot value, because they knew the bonus money would be significantly less the next year.
I'm expecting Nicholson and Paulsen back. I wasn't expecting Winslow back but that'd be great. I think there's almost zero chance we get any of Gallaher/Schaffner/Hull/DeCaro/Lynch back.
Winslow's draft helium has been quieter than that of Schaffner and Hull, but it's definitely there. He's not on MLB's top 200, but they called him a sleeper to watch ahead of the Chapel Hill Regional (https://www.mlb.com/news/pipeline-inbox-top-sleeper-draft-prospects-in-ncaa-regionals), and D1B's pro scout has said a few times that he's probably a fifth-ish round pick.
Indeed. And I still have hope for guys like Hargett, Black and Sowers despite them not showing much this year. Love our returning position player core if we can keep Paulsen, Coop, Winslow and Howe. Obviously still need to supplement them with studs since we are losing our 3 best hitters for sure.
Not always actually happens but I heard Macon say that he had another year to play for us recently. He sure was positive sounding.
I agree with 76, who mentioned DeCaro but I think he has shown some concerns despite his record & ERA. Gets behind on a lot of hitters & gives up a lot of contact on swings, whether fair or foul, driving his pitch count up early & early exits although we have been ahead at the time.
I think he could improve a whole lot so another year might be best assuming he does.
I agree with 76, who mentioned DeCaro but I think he has shown some concerns despite his record & ERA. Gets behind on a lot of hitters & gives up a lot of contact on swings, whether fair or foul, driving his pitch count up early & early exits although we have been ahead at the time.
I think he could improve a whole lot so another year might be best assuming he does.