In response to previous link with very flawed ratings for the strength of the regionals based on average rankings of the 4 teams, I went full nerd and made a revised ranking in a way that makes more sense….just comparing the difficulty for each of the host teams. Same methodology could be done for 2-seeds, 3-seeds, or 4-seeds, but since we’re a host, I wasn’t super concerned about that.
For this, I used RPI as the base metric. You could also use ELO, DSR, or whatever instead. The most glaring observation - there is a HUGE variation in the quality of the 4-seeds. The best RPI for a 4-seed was 82, the worst was 239. This shows some 1-seeds essentially have an auto-win, where others very well may be in for a battle.
Conclusion - cannot just apply a floor to the 4-seed metric in the calculation. But, you also can’t give it equal weight to the 2-3 seed metrics. I decided to do a weighted average, in which the Mid-seed average rank comprises 80% and the 4-seed rank comprises 20%. If I were to try and compare 2-seeds or 3-seeds, I’d probably weigh the 4-seed rank a little more heavily, like 30-35% or something. As an aside, there were also some alarmingly bad RPI’s for some 3-seeds. Some were in 60’s and 70’s.
The results are below, ranked from easiest regional for the host, to most difficult. The +/- values in parenthesis show where the difficulty rank falls relative to the host’s overall seed. Example - MSU is +4, meaning we have the 10th easiest regional even though we’re the 14 seed (favorable draw).
Hosts that got lucky: Alabama, Nebraska
Hosts that kinda got screwed: UNC, USM
The Rankings (Easiest to Hardest):
#1 Auburn (+3)
Mid-seed average 43.5
4-seed 238
Composite 82.4
#2 Tuscaloosa (+5)
Mid-seed average 56.5
4-seed 177
Composite 80.6
#3 Austin (+3)
Mid-seed average 47
4-seed 201
Composite 77.8
#4 Los Angeles (-3)
Mid-seed average 57.5
4-seed 140
Composite 74
#5 Lincoln (+8)
Mid-seed average 30
4-seed 239
Composite 71.8
#6 Atlanta (-4)
Mid-seed average 32.5
4-seed 227
Composite 71.4
#7 Eugene (+4)
Mid-seed average 50.5
4-seed 144
Composite 69.2
#8 Athens (-5)
Mid-seed average 33
4-seed 199
Composite 66.2
#9 Tallahassee (+1)
Mid-seed average 52.5
4-seed 102
Composite 62.4
#10 Starkville (+4)
Mid-seed average 27.5
4-seed 155
Composite 53
#11 Gainesville (-3)
Mid-seed average 32.5
4-seed 119
Composite 49.8
#12 Morgantown (+4)
Mid-seed average 28.5
4-seed 118
Composite 46.4
#13 Chapel Hill (-8)
Mid-seed average 35.5
4-seed 82
Composite 44.8
#14 College Station (-2)
Mid-seed average 26
4-seed 90
Composite 38.8
#15 Hattiesburg (-6)
Mid-seed average 25.5
4-seed 89
Composite 38.2
#16 Lawrence (-1)
Mid-seed average 22
4-seed 88
Composite 35.2
For this, I used RPI as the base metric. You could also use ELO, DSR, or whatever instead. The most glaring observation - there is a HUGE variation in the quality of the 4-seeds. The best RPI for a 4-seed was 82, the worst was 239. This shows some 1-seeds essentially have an auto-win, where others very well may be in for a battle.
Conclusion - cannot just apply a floor to the 4-seed metric in the calculation. But, you also can’t give it equal weight to the 2-3 seed metrics. I decided to do a weighted average, in which the Mid-seed average rank comprises 80% and the 4-seed rank comprises 20%. If I were to try and compare 2-seeds or 3-seeds, I’d probably weigh the 4-seed rank a little more heavily, like 30-35% or something. As an aside, there were also some alarmingly bad RPI’s for some 3-seeds. Some were in 60’s and 70’s.
The results are below, ranked from easiest regional for the host, to most difficult. The +/- values in parenthesis show where the difficulty rank falls relative to the host’s overall seed. Example - MSU is +4, meaning we have the 10th easiest regional even though we’re the 14 seed (favorable draw).
Hosts that got lucky: Alabama, Nebraska
Hosts that kinda got screwed: UNC, USM
The Rankings (Easiest to Hardest):
#1 Auburn (+3)
Mid-seed average 43.5
4-seed 238
Composite 82.4
#2 Tuscaloosa (+5)
Mid-seed average 56.5
4-seed 177
Composite 80.6
#3 Austin (+3)
Mid-seed average 47
4-seed 201
Composite 77.8
#4 Los Angeles (-3)
Mid-seed average 57.5
4-seed 140
Composite 74
#5 Lincoln (+8)
Mid-seed average 30
4-seed 239
Composite 71.8
#6 Atlanta (-4)
Mid-seed average 32.5
4-seed 227
Composite 71.4
#7 Eugene (+4)
Mid-seed average 50.5
4-seed 144
Composite 69.2
#8 Athens (-5)
Mid-seed average 33
4-seed 199
Composite 66.2
#9 Tallahassee (+1)
Mid-seed average 52.5
4-seed 102
Composite 62.4
#10 Starkville (+4)
Mid-seed average 27.5
4-seed 155
Composite 53
#11 Gainesville (-3)
Mid-seed average 32.5
4-seed 119
Composite 49.8
#12 Morgantown (+4)
Mid-seed average 28.5
4-seed 118
Composite 46.4
#13 Chapel Hill (-8)
Mid-seed average 35.5
4-seed 82
Composite 44.8
#14 College Station (-2)
Mid-seed average 26
4-seed 90
Composite 38.8
#15 Hattiesburg (-6)
Mid-seed average 25.5
4-seed 89
Composite 38.2
#16 Lawrence (-1)
Mid-seed average 22
4-seed 88
Composite 35.2
