It feels as though only a matter of time. We are only a year or two away from 100 million a year rosters being the norm in football.
Who will be the first P4 program to shutter or end athletics?
- Thread starter mc140
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DePaul,Providence,Rutgers, Baylor, Creighton,Arizona state, Dayton,Memphis
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They deserve it. They let this happen and wokeness caused average people to despise universities policies. People can act like it doesn’t exist, but more and more young people want trades now which is a great thing. They have so many useless degrees it’s ridiculous. I’m sure more than a few will. Taxpayers need to make sure they don’t end up paying for their nonsense.
UNC? I wasn't aware they had any legitimate academic programs to begin with. I thought it was just a diploma mill created for athletics.
When for decades the financial cost of a diploma ceaselessly rises as the value of a diploma steadily declines there’s logically gonna eventually be a breaking point when the public stops seeing universities as a wise investment.
It appears that breaking point may have arrived.
It appears that breaking point may have arrived.
You don't need college to have a successful career now. The decades-long mindset of "if you don't have a degree at a four year university, you're a failure" doesn't exist anymore. It has nothing to do with 'wokeness' and average people do not "despise" universities' policies.
Log off Facebook occasionally and stop blaming a buzzword for everything, which you've done in the past. The only folks who talk about 'woke' in 2026 are old people who've latched onto a word and use it as a crutch for anything they've been told by cable tv to dislike now.
The Paddock and Rafters had been bad about that. Don't like something? WOKE ITS WOKE WOKE BROKE. You sound like a robot lol.
Dismissing 'woke' as just a Facebook boomer buzzword is peak cope from someone still stuck in 2015-era denial.
Average people do despise university policies. Look at the enrollment cliffs, the donor revolts, the skyrocketing admin bloat funding DEI offices instead of academics, and the endless parade of antisemitism scandals, speech codes, and grievance studies degrees that turned campuses into ideological echo chambers. That's not cable TV, that's parents watching their kids rack up six figures in debt for pronouns and safe spaces while learning to hate their own country.
The 'you don't need college' shift happened because the product got poisoned by this ideology, not despite it. Trades are booming precisely as universities became expensive daycares for activists. Blaming it all on 'log off social media' is just the classic deflection. Pretend the cultural capture never happened, call the people noticing it 'old robots,' and hope no one remembers the last decade of corporate pride flags, sports takeovers, and Hollywood flops that all tanked when they went full woke.
Reality isn't a buzzword. It's the balance sheet and it's red for a reason.
Per ChatGPT.
In the United States, college enrollment has already declined significantly from its peak, and most forecasts project additional pressure or declines ahead—especially for traditional undergraduate programs.
Here’s the big picture:
Undergraduate enrollment peaked around 2010.
Between 2010 and the early 2020s, undergraduate enrollment fell by roughly 15%.
The pandemic accelerated the decline, especially at community colleges and smaller private institutions.
Some recent years have shown modest rebounds in total enrollment, particularly at community colleges and certificate programs.
However, most experts still expect a long-term “enrollment cliff” beginning around 2025–2026 because there are simply fewer college-age students due to declining birth rates after the 2008 recession.
This projected decline is often called the “demographic cliff.”
A few key drivers:
Fewer 18-year-olds
Birth rates dropped sharply after the 2008 financial crisis, and those smaller age cohorts are now reaching college age.
Rising skepticism about college value
Higher tuition, student debt concerns, and stronger trade/certificate alternatives have reduced demand for four-year degrees in some groups.
Uneven effects across institutions
Elite universities are generally expected to remain stable because demand exceeds supply. Smaller regional colleges, rural schools, and less selective institutions are considered much more vulnerable.
Geographic differences
The Northeast and Midwest are expected to be hit hardest because their youth populations are shrinking faster, while parts of the South may fare better due to population growth.
One important nuance: “college enrollment” is not falling equally everywhere.
Recent data show:
Community colleges have recently grown again.
Certificate and workforce-oriented programs are gaining popularity.
Adult learners and online education may partially offset losses in traditional 18–22-year-old students.
So the most accurate summary is:
Traditional college enrollment—especially among 18-year-old undergraduates—is broadly projected to decline over the next decade, even though some sectors of higher education may continue growing.
In the United States, college enrollment has already declined significantly from its peak, and most forecasts project additional pressure or declines ahead—especially for traditional undergraduate programs.
Here’s the big picture:
Undergraduate enrollment peaked around 2010.
Between 2010 and the early 2020s, undergraduate enrollment fell by roughly 15%.
The pandemic accelerated the decline, especially at community colleges and smaller private institutions.
Some recent years have shown modest rebounds in total enrollment, particularly at community colleges and certificate programs.
However, most experts still expect a long-term “enrollment cliff” beginning around 2025–2026 because there are simply fewer college-age students due to declining birth rates after the 2008 recession.
This projected decline is often called the “demographic cliff.”
A few key drivers:
Fewer 18-year-olds
Birth rates dropped sharply after the 2008 financial crisis, and those smaller age cohorts are now reaching college age.
Rising skepticism about college value
Higher tuition, student debt concerns, and stronger trade/certificate alternatives have reduced demand for four-year degrees in some groups.
Uneven effects across institutions
Elite universities are generally expected to remain stable because demand exceeds supply. Smaller regional colleges, rural schools, and less selective institutions are considered much more vulnerable.
Geographic differences
The Northeast and Midwest are expected to be hit hardest because their youth populations are shrinking faster, while parts of the South may fare better due to population growth.
One important nuance: “college enrollment” is not falling equally everywhere.
Recent data show:
Community colleges have recently grown again.
Certificate and workforce-oriented programs are gaining popularity.
Adult learners and online education may partially offset losses in traditional 18–22-year-old students.
So the most accurate summary is:
Traditional college enrollment—especially among 18-year-old undergraduates—is broadly projected to decline over the next decade, even though some sectors of higher education may continue growing.
You're just jealous you couldn't get in college. Quit hating.
Couple of things here…this new generation isn’t being tricked into the false tale that you have to have a degree to be successful in life like a lot of us were. Good for them.
Second, all of these schools overcharge for nothing. They realized kids will just get student loans and they can charge whatever they want. That’s predatory behavior. I’m generally a person that says you take the loan then you pay it back but I believe these universities are responsible for a lot of this debt.
Third, why do we need undergraduate courses for a degree that has nothing to do with our major? It’s a scam by universities to make more money. Always has been. This is why trade schools are booming.
Second, all of these schools overcharge for nothing. They realized kids will just get student loans and they can charge whatever they want. That’s predatory behavior. I’m generally a person that says you take the loan then you pay it back but I believe these universities are responsible for a lot of this debt.
Third, why do we need undergraduate courses for a degree that has nothing to do with our major? It’s a scam by universities to make more money. Always has been. This is why trade schools are booming.
As much as I hate UNCheat, UNC is actually a very good academic school (for a liberal arts degree), but also has a good medical program, good statistics program, and other non-liberal-arts areas of study.
This is hard for the boomer mind to comprehend but not everything is about politics..
I'm aware. But I guess you aren't able to comprehend that sometimes it is.
"Hall Monitor" enjoys a long, condescending history on the Paddock.
He staked a claim to the moral high ground long ago. The rest of us can only hope to be so virtuous.
The difference between us old boomers and this younger generation has a lot to do with being "woke".
What exactly does being woke mean? That is where the colleges and media have injected ideology into facts.
But for this "old boomer" who fell into that trap of must have a college degree and wanted thousands of dollars on that education only to build a successful maintenance company that had zero to do with my book education, this is what the difference between us old boomers and the woke generation.
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I wouldn't look so much at enrollments and the number of courses or majors available to determine the fate of athletics. Athletics function on TV contracts, sponsorships, and alumni donations. Those streams of money have little to do with the academic side of things.
Here's what I came up with
The universities most at risk of drastically guting their non-revenue "Olympic" sports (swimming, tennis, track, gymnastics, soccer) share a specific financial profile: they have low overall athletic revenues, a heavy reliance on university/student subsidies, and are locked into lower-tier TV payout deals. [1, 2, 3]
The five universities facing the highest risk of losing the majority of their non-football and non-basketball programs include:
1. University of Houston
2. University of Cincinnati
3. University of Central Florida (UCF)
4. Rutgers University
5. Washington State University / Oregon State University
The Mathematical Reality Facing These Schools
To put this in perspective, look at how an athletic department's budget is forced to shift:
The universities most at risk of drastically guting their non-revenue "Olympic" sports (swimming, tennis, track, gymnastics, soccer) share a specific financial profile: they have low overall athletic revenues, a heavy reliance on university/student subsidies, and are locked into lower-tier TV payout deals. [1, 2, 3]
The five universities facing the highest risk of losing the majority of their non-football and non-basketball programs include:
1. University of Houston
- The Vulnerability: Houston has one of the starkest funding crises in the Power 4. Out of its roughly $99 million athletic budget, nearly $48 million comes from university subsidies and student fees.
- The Danger: Because Houston is already heavily taxing its general student body to stay afloat, it cannot easily extract another $20+ million from the university to pay football and basketball players. To clear cap space, the athletic department will be forced to aggressively trim or eliminate its 15 sports outside of football and basketball.
2. University of Cincinnati
- The Vulnerability: Much like Houston, Cincinnati operates on a razor-thin margin with around $90 million in revenue, requiring over $40 million in institutional support to break even.
- The Danger: As a newer member of the Big 12, Cincinnati is caught in a cash squeeze. They do not have the massive donor base of a blue-blood school to offset the new payroll requirements, putting sports like track and field, tennis, and golf on the chopping block to preserve the football program's budget. [1, 2, 3]
3. University of Central Florida (UCF)
- The Vulnerability: UCF has a massive student enrollment but an athletic department that generates just $93 million annually—relying on $30+ million in student fees and institutional help.
- The Danger: UCF heavily funds its explosive athletic growth via student athletic fees. However, state political climates and university boards are increasingly pushing back against raising student tuition to fund multi-million dollar athlete payrolls. Without that subsidized cushion, UCF’s non-revenue programs will face immediate budget reallocations. [1]
4. Rutgers University
- The Vulnerability: Despite being in the wealthy Big Ten conference, Rutgers’ athletic department has historically operated at a massive deficit, frequently reporting net operating losses approaching $70 million to $100 million that must be bailed out by the university’s main academic fund.
- The Danger: Because Rutgers already drains vast amounts of cash from the university's academic side just to compete in Big Ten football, the institution cannot absorb a new $20.5 million player payroll without facing a severe academic backlash. Sacrificing non-revenue programs will be the primary mechanism to balance the books. [1, 2, 3]
5. Washington State University / Oregon State University
- The Vulnerability: These two "Pac-2" programs were entirely left behind by the Power conference realignment. Stripped of their lucrative Power 5 TV contract, their media revenue collapsed from roughly $30+ million down to the small-market Mountain West tier.
- The Danger: While WSU and OSU are desperately trying to rebuild a conference or find a way back to a major league, they are operating with a fraction of the budget they once had. They are in the most volatile position in college sports; they simply do not have the money to fund a baseline competitive football roster and maintain a full suite of Olympic sports, making devastating cuts almost inevitable. [1]
The Mathematical Reality Facing These Schools
To put this in perspective, look at how an athletic department's budget is forced to shift:
| School Type [1] | Total Revenue | New Athlete Payroll | Impact on Olympic Sports |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elite Program (e.g., Texas) | $240+ Million | $20.5 Million | None. Can absorb the cost easily using surplus football revenue. |
| Vulnerable Program (e.g., Cincinnati) | $90 Million | $20.5 Million | Severe. Represents over 20% of their total budget. Requires cutting Olympic sports to fund football. |
You mean 'Here's what Chat GPT gave me'.
Disusing woke is not about politics. It is a discussion about how you are impacted by laws and policies. Tax law. Criminal law. Civil law. And much more. Oh....but guess what, that is politics. Framing everything around one generation (Boomers) and acting like it is some kind of alien period that ruined the planet, is just ignorant and lazy. It is also called an ad hominin attack (i.e., you can't critically think about the issue so you attack the character of your opponent) I can only roll my eyes when I hear people use that word. It is literally the equivalent of bitching about the weather.
This was inevitable.
Nothing to do with price of athletics.
Declining birth rates. Pretty easy math to do there.
Insurmountable debt. When doctors and other high earners struggle to pay off loans…something has gone awry.
Good money to make just getting to work as soon as you’re legally able to have a full time job. Might not start out great but making something is better than racking up debt.
Athletics will be fine. It’ll change. Might start to see separation from “college” and a transition to more professional structures. Like all the different leagues and clubs over seas.
Nothing to do with price of athletics.
Declining birth rates. Pretty easy math to do there.
Insurmountable debt. When doctors and other high earners struggle to pay off loans…something has gone awry.
Good money to make just getting to work as soon as you’re legally able to have a full time job. Might not start out great but making something is better than racking up debt.
Athletics will be fine. It’ll change. Might start to see separation from “college” and a transition to more professional structures. Like all the different leagues and clubs over seas.
If you want to find out who all the miserable people on this message board are; see the people injecting politics into everything. I can’t imagine being that unhappy with my situation in life that I have to blame other peoples beliefs for my unhappiness. It constantly amazes me how a person can have so little self worth that they need constant affirmation about their political beliefs. That goes for either side.
“Boomer” and “woke” have both become such annoyingly overused buzzwords. Young people mindlessly try to scapegoat things by just saying boomer, and old people mindlessly try to scapegoat things by just saying woke. And neither side are truly doing their own thinking.
FOR THE LOVE OF DOG, STOP POSTING AI SLOP, DELETE CHATGPT AND THINK FOR YOURSELVES.
AI is eroding what limited critical thinking skills Americans had left.
End rant.
AI is eroding what limited critical thinking skills Americans had left.
End rant.
Universities were like kid in the cookie jar, seeing how much they could get out of there before getting caught. Once the federal government got involved in handing NON-BANKRUPTABLE loans to teenager for 7% and universities weren’t being vetted for said loans the tuition hikes and ridiculous classes offered exploded. They also became to attached to politics as the government was basically supplying them the customers. After decades of this abuse and predatory behavior hopefully this is the sign that the breaking point has been reached and universities will have to adjust accordingly.
If you think enrollment is down at universities because "woke" and not because college is too expensive and doesn't seem to offer the return on value it used to then you are absolutely looking at the subject through your own political lens
Your response may have held a tiny bit of truth if not for the election. There are 10,000 political adds a day using Woke as their main criticism of someone.
Woke is now used as Socialist, as well as liberal. It’s far from dead.
It's an oxymoron to say " is actually a very good academic school (for a liberal arts degree)".
I an see how an outsider might include UC on this list but you couldn't be more wrong. The University of Cincinnati is experiencing tremendous growth right now and the campus is being transformed into the modern era. The enrollment has been through the roof to the point mutliple years freshmen students have been living in local hotels on campus as their dorm.
There are plenty of big donors at UC and all the new buildings and restoration on campus speaks volumes. UC is all in on athletics and while it is taking them some time to get caught up in the Big12 I don't forsee UC cancelling any sports. In fact I think we are going to see UC add new sports such as Mens Lacrosse, Mens Volleyball, Mens Tennis, and Womens Softball. I would make a bet that Women's Softball and Men's Lacrosse are added within 3 to 5 years.
People who have to inject politics into every conversation are usually angry self righteous people. It's probably means their life revolves around political beliefs so strongly that most everyday decisions are based on political beliefs. It's on both sides, the Left and the Right.
These people also seem to think they're never wrong and if you disagree then they'll immediately start insulting you. Conversations can't be had with this type of individual. Truly sad.
Someone told me UL has a $2 million budget shortfall and was asking staff to take voluntary pay cuts.
On UL radio the other morning they were justifying paying basketball players big salaries because UL is the rare basketball program that makes money. Google told me that UL’s basketball income is no more than $25 million. How much are they paying on a roster?
It’s a zoo.
On UL radio the other morning they were justifying paying basketball players big salaries because UL is the rare basketball program that makes money. Google told me that UL’s basketball income is no more than $25 million. How much are they paying on a roster?
It’s a zoo.
And no where did I even come close to saying that enrollment was down due to wokeness. Nor would I even, because I do not flipping care. College was very good to me but it ain't for everyone, especially if your getting a soft degree for $100K. I have no idea why enrollment is down. Nor do I care, but wokeness isn't the rock I'd turn over. I find it almost funny it is down given the arms race at major universities.
I was discussing the assertion that wokeness isn't relevant and only a political issue that morons (Boomers) discuss. The implications of wokeness are real and so yes....therefore political. If the implications weren't real no one would give a damn. So if that is your definition of "looking through the political lens" then guilty as charged. I wish I could follow your lead and become more transcendent. You inspire us.