Friday Update: RPI, SEC and Cheering Guide

[615dawg]

We got no help last night. Florida State scored 3 in the bottom of the 9th to tie Miami and then won in extra innings. Ole Miss blew a lead to Alabama, and USC beat Oregon in 11 innings.

Here is where we stand in the RPI Ladder

Rank	Team	RPI vs. State	Opponent	Win	Loss	Sweep (3-0)	Series Win (2-1)	Series Loss (1-2)	Swept (0-3)
6	Florida State	96	Miami	15	-45	30	-30	-90	X
7	Alabama	96	Ole Miss	14	-42	28	-28	-84	X
8	USC	74	Oregon	29	-16	58	13	-32	X
9	Southern Miss	21	Georgia Southern	-19	-77	-38	-96	-154	X
10	Mississippi State	0	Texas A&M	32	-11	64	21	-22	X
11	Florida	-23	LSU	12	-32	24	-20	-64	X
12	Nebraska	-33	Minnesota	16	-28	32	-12	-56	X
13	Ole Miss	-48	Alabama	34	-14	X	68	20	-28

A win tonight and we definitely move to No. 9, as Southern Miss loses points even with a win. We can't quite catch anyone else tonight, but we can get close. For example, we are 96 points behind Alabama, who I think is our main competition for a top 8 seed. If we win and Alabama loses to Ole Miss. We earn 32 points for the victory and Alabama loses 42 points (Total of 74). It puts us within 22 points of Alabama headed into the series finales, and very close to where a win over A&M would pass Bama even if they were to win the last one.

Now a look at the race for a top 4 seed. Here are the single and double byes in the SEC Tournament as of right now.

Rank	Team	Record	Games Behind	Magic Number for Double Bye	Notes
1	Georgia	22-6	-	0	clinched SEC title
2	Texas	17-10	4.5	1
3	Alabama	17-11	5	2
4	Texas A&M	16-11	5.5	2
5	Florida	16-12	6		wins tiebreaker vs. AUB, MSU (record vs. common opponents
6	Auburn	16-12	6		wins tiebreaker vs. MSU (head to head)
7	Mississippi State	16-12	6
8	Arkansas	15-13	7

We do not fair well in tiebreakers, so we need to get to the top four. A win tonight and we pass Texas A&M. But we lose tiebreakers to Alabama, Florida and Auburn, so we need them to lose.

Cheering Guide

1. Mississippi State over Texas A&M (obviously most important)
2. Ole Miss over Alabama (Its tough, but we need it for RPI and SEC)
3. LSU over Florida
4. Georgia over Auburn

If these four happen, we are the No. 4 seed (with a chance for No. 3) going into the final day. I don't think Mizzou will beat Texas twice, but the No. 2 seed is still mathematically in play for MSU.


Non Conference:
5. Miami over Florida State (FSU will lock up national seed with win, leaving only one spot)
6. Oregon over USC

 

[patdog]

Screw other teams. If we sweep we’ll be a top 8 seed. If we don’t we won’t. Not sure playing at home helps this team anyway.

 

[HailStout]

It kind of feels like the national seed has sailed minus a sweep and a lot of help.

 

[ZombieKissinger]

Almost all the games were looking good for us early then it flipped and we got no help. Playing at a&m is helping quite a bit for RPI vs home. I still like our chances to jump 3 spots if we win the next two and get no help from others

 

[She Mate Me]

Kansas was in the mix last week so I wondered what happened. Didn't realize they got swept at home by WV after losing to Creighton in the midweek.

 

[615dawg]

Kansas was in the mix last week so I wondered what happened. Didn't realize they got swept at home by WV after losing to Creighton in the midweek.

Yep. West Virginia is probably a host now. Kansas went from a shot at a national seed to out of the hosting picture within a week. I think 13 hosts are locked in, with Texas A&M, Ole Miss, Oregon State, Wake Forest, West Virginia, Kansas and Oregon trying to get the last three spots.

Top 8 Seed Locks (6)

UCLA, Georgia Tech, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Auburn

Top 8 Seed One Win Away from Lock (1)

Florida State

Battling for Top 8 Seed but Hosting Lock (4)

Mississippi State, Alabama, USC, Florida

Hosting Lock (3)

Nebraska, Southern Miss

Three Spots Remain - I think they are in three groups with one coming out of each group. (Bold is who I think has them right now)

Texas A&M, Ole Miss (Ole Miss + MSU win tonight switches these)
Oregon State, Oregon (if Oregon wins series vs. USC and OSU drops one to AF, it could switch)
West Virginia, Wake Forest, Kansas (WVU is one win from clinching last spot)

 

[MagnoliaHunter]

We got no help last night. Florida State scored 3 in the bottom of the 9th to tie Miami and then won in extra innings. Ole Miss blew a lead to Alabama, and USC beat Oregon in 11 innings.

Here is where we stand in the RPI Ladder

Rank	Team	RPI vs. State	Opponent	Win	Loss	Sweep (3-0)	Series Win (2-1)	Series Loss (1-2)	Swept (0-3)
6	Florida State	96	Miami	15	-45	30	-30	-90	X
7	Alabama	96	Ole Miss	14	-42	28	-28	-84	X
8	USC	74	Oregon	29	-16	58	13	-32	X
9	Southern Miss	21	Georgia Southern	-19	-77	-38	-96	-154	X
10	Mississippi State	0	Texas A&M	32	-11	64	21	-22	X
11	Florida	-23	LSU	12	-32	24	-20	-64	X
12	Nebraska	-33	Minnesota	16	-28	32	-12	-56	X
13	Ole Miss	-48	Alabama	34	-14	X	68	20	-28

A win tonight and we definitely move to No. 9, as Southern Miss loses points even with a win. We can't quite catch anyone else tonight, but we can get close. For example, we are 96 points behind Alabama, who I think is our main competition for a top 8 seed. If we win and Alabama loses to Ole Miss. We earn 32 points for the victory and Alabama loses 42 points (Total of 74). It puts us within 22 points of Alabama headed into the series finales, and very close to where a win over A&M would pass Bama even if they were to win the last one.

Now a look at the race for a top 4 seed. Here are the single and double byes in the SEC Tournament as of right now.

Rank	Team	Record	Games Behind	Magic Number for Double Bye	Notes
1	Georgia	22-6	-	0	clinched SEC title
2	Texas	17-10	4.5	1
3	Alabama	17-11	5	2
4	Texas A&M	16-11	5.5	2
5	Florida	16-12	6		wins tiebreaker vs. AUB, MSU (record vs. common opponents
6	Auburn	16-12	6		wins tiebreaker vs. MSU (head to head)
7	Mississippi State	16-12	6
8	Arkansas	15-13	7

We do not fair well in tiebreakers, so we need to get to the top four. A win tonight and we pass Texas A&M. But we lose tiebreakers to Alabama, Florida and Auburn, so we need them to lose.

Cheering Guide

1. Mississippi State over Texas A&M (obviously most important)
2. Ole Miss over Alabama (Its tough, but we need it for RPI and SEC)
3. LSU over Florida
4. Georgia over Auburn

If these four happen, we are the No. 4 seed (with a chance for No. 3) going into the final day. I don't think Mizzou will beat Texas twice, but the No. 2 seed is still mathematically in play for MSU.


Non Conference:
5. Miami over Florida State (FSU will lock up national seed with win, leaving only one spot)
6. Oregon over USC

what a surprise. You can't count on umiss to do anything right.

 

[57stratdawg]

It kind of feels like the national seed has sailed minus a sweep and a lot of help.

Yeah. I feel like we’re headed for a #9 - #11 seed. Paired with FSU or USC.

Which is fine. I’d rather go to one of them than Georgia or Texas.

 

[Seinfeld]

It kind of feels like the national seed has sailed minus a sweep and a lot of help.

Yeah, and if we’re being honest, there hasn’t been much that this team has shown all year that screams national seed. They’re good to very good in a lot of areas, but not particularly great anywhere.

Hell, after going off for 18 runs last night, it wouldn’t surprise me at all to only post 4 tonight against the remnants of A&M’s pitching staff. This team is so dang inconsistent

 

[Perd Hapley]

Personally, I think we’re better off as a #9~#11 paired against a non-SEC Top 8, as opposed to a national seed that’s paired against another SEC host. RPI be damned, I’d prefer to not go through another SEC team in the super regional round. Anyone else besides UCLA, and I’m good with it.

 

[HailStout]

Personally, I think we’re better off as a #9~#11 paired against a non-SEC Top 8, as opposed to a national seed that’s paired against another SEC host. RPI be damned, I’d prefer to not go through another SEC team in the super regional round. Anyone else besides UCLA, and I’m good with it.

This is probably the right answer

 

[Msuirondawgs]

We do not want either of these 2 options(12/13):

 

[615dawg]

At this point, the most likely spot that the simulations have us is the 10 seed paired with a 7 seeded Alabama.

 

[HailStout]

At this point, the most likely spot that the simulations have us is the 10 seed paired with a 7 seeded Alabama.

I would take that. Can send a lot of fans east on 82

 

[theoriginalSALTYdog]

Yeah. I feel like we’re headed for a #9 - #11 seed. Paired with FSU or USC.

Which is fine. I’d rather go to one of them than Georgia or Texas.

You can bet your *** that they'll do all they can to match up SEC teams in the supers to get a little more diversity. Happens every year.

 

[GloryDawg]

Ole miss is good on Fridays but that's about it and they loss last night.

 

[Deltaduckhunter]

There is always the situation where we are not a national seed, the team we are paired against loses their regional, and the super ends up in Starkville anyway....

 

[GloryDawg]

A&M went through some pitchers last night. Let's hope that bold well for us tonight and Saturday.

 

[Dawgbite]

A&M went through some pitchers last night. Let's hope that bold well for us tonight and Saturday.

Bodes well. The entire English department at Mississippi State University needs to be shut down and that money spent on Offensive Linemen!

 

[patdog]

You can bet your *** that they'll do all they can to match up SEC teams in the supers to get a little more diversity. Happens every year.

Last year both SEC #9-16 seeds were matched up with an SEC #1-8 seed. 24 the only SEC #9-16 seed was matched with FSU. In 23, 2 were matched with SEC teams & 2 with ACC teams. I don’t think it’s much intentional bias as it is if you’ve got so many #1 seeds it’s going to happen.

 

[dickiedawg]

Personally, I think we’re better off as a #9~#11 paired against a non-SEC Top 8, as opposed to a national seed that’s paired against another SEC host. RPI be damned, I’d prefer to not go through another SEC team in the super regional round. Anyone else besides UCLA, and I’m good with it.

I always feel better about being paired with a non-SEC team, but give me Alabama at home vs going on the road to FSU.

 

[DAWGSANDSAINTS]

We need a win tonight in a really bad way!
We need ole miss to nut up and beat bama.
We need Oregon to do the same vs USC

 

[OG Goat Holder]

We're a host team, not a national seed. Which is good for OC's first year. Better than last year.

Next year and onward I expect us to have the 'look' of a national seed all the time, even if we don't always get one. We're missing that this year, especially on the mound. Which I why I don't expect us to get far. We will likely win a regional and lose the super.

 

[GloryDawg]

Bodes well. The entire English department at Mississippi State University needs to be shut down and that money spent on Offensive Linemen!

I didn't major in English but ole miss did offer me spelling scholarship.

 

[CochiseCowbell]

I always feel better about being paired with a non-SEC team, but give me Alabama at home vs going on the road to FSU.

We are FSU's kryptonite in postseason baseball. I'd take Tallahassee any day.

We would definitely turn Tuscaloosa maroon for a Super though.

 

[MSU Fan.sixpack]

Personally, I think we’re better off as a #9~#11 paired against a non-SEC Top 8, as opposed to a national seed that’s paired against another SEC host. RPI be damned, I’d prefer to not go through another SEC team in the super regional round. Anyone else besides UCLA, and I’m good with it.

I've been thinking the same and further I wouldn't want to be in the 4, 5, or 8 slot (and the corresponding 9, 12, 13, and 16 spots) to avoid being in UCLA's bracket in the CWS. So 10-11 is a good sweet spot if not a national seed. I know this is thinking way too far ahead but UCLA is far and away the best team this season.

 

[MSUDC11-2.0]

It’s essentially 6 teams for 2 spots at the back end of the Top 8.

State vs A&M will eliminate whoever loses this series. And then also competing with Bama, Florida, Florida State, and USM.

 

[She Mate Me]

Yeah. I feel like we’re headed for a #9 - #11 seed. Paired with FSU or USC.

Which is fine. I’d rather go to one of them than Georgia or Texas.

Yeah, even if we don't get a Top 8, being a high seed definitely helps with that Super matchup.

And if Tomas and Ryan can get their groove back we become an opponent nobody really wants to see coming to their place.

 

[DT4248]

Us 7 seed with USM 10 seed having OM 2 seed in their regional. The super would be insanity. Win out and this is a real possibility

 

[DAWGSANDSAINTS]

I’d don’t want to see UA in a Super in Tuscaloosa.
Much rather be matched up against USM, USC or FL St if we don’t get a Top 8 seed.

 

[Called3rdstrikedawg]

Bodes well. The entire English department at Mississippi State University needs to be shut down and that money spent on Offensive Linemen!

This! ^^^

 

[Perd Hapley]

Last year both SEC #9-16 seeds were matched up with an SEC #1-8 seed. 24 the only SEC #9-16 seed was matched with FSU. In 23, 2 were matched with SEC teams & 2 with ACC teams. I don’t think it’s much intentional bias as it is if you’ve got so many #1 seeds it’s going to happen.

We’ll see. There will be at least 6 and possibly 7 SEC hosts….UGA, Texas, Auburn, Alabama, MSU, Florida are guaranteed. 1 of 2 between A&M and Ole Miss are also possible, but likely not both.

If there are 6, I don’t see them all being paired against each other. At least 2 will be paired up for sure. More than likely, 4 of them would be paired up. I doubt they’d do all 6. We’d want to be one of the 2-4 that wasn’t paired with an SEC national seed. But, if it has to happen, would prefer it to be Bama or UF over any others.

 

[MSUDC11-2.0]

USC is not going to be a Top 8 seed. They may not even host. Don’t look at their RPI and assume that will carry them. If they host, it will be toward the back end.

 

[615dawg]

USC is not going to be a Top 8 seed. They may not even host. Don’t look at their RPI and assume that will carry them. If they host, it will be toward the back end.

I agreed with you two weeks ago. But they are a lock to host right now. There's not 16 others. But they should get penalized for their atrocious Quad 1 record (1-9 after getting their first win last night).

Florida State probably wraps up the seventh Top 8 seed tonight, and then an SEC team (us, Florida, Alabama) gets the last one.

 

[She Mate Me]

FWIW, the Warren Nolan prediction from 2+ weeks ago that had us finishing Top 8 RPI by losing 2 of 3 to Texas and Auburn and sweeping TAMU is still in play.

Seemed silly, but it's still possible.

 

[Dawgbite]

I didn't major in English but ole miss did offer me spelling scholarship.

Don’t you mean Basket Weaving?

 

[MSUDC11-2.0]

I agreed with you two weeks ago. But they are a lock to host right now. There's not 16 others. But they should get penalized for their atrocious Quad 1 record (1-9 after getting their first win last night).

Florida State probably wraps up the seventh Top 8 seed tonight, and then an SEC team (us, Florida, Alabama) gets the last one.

I see it more as the winner of the USC-Oregon series is probably hosting. I don’t think the one win for USC last night is enough, they need to take the series at a minimum. There are four good Big 10 teams this year, and USC is currently 1-6 against the other three. If they go 1-8, I don’t see how they have any business hosting. They don’t rate as highly in DSR and KPI as they do RPI, and supposedly all three will be weighed this year.

My only qualm with Florida State as a Top 8 is they went 0-3 against Florida who is also in the mix for a Top 8. Which you can also ding Florida for going 0-3 against Bama, but it’s possible they just give UF and Bama both Top 8’s.

My gut right now is telling me that we are on a track to be paired with either Bama or Florida for a Super. I don’t know if that’s with us hosting or traveling. But I really feel like we are about to fall somewhere in that 7 to 10 range (if we win one more this weekend)

 

[GloryDawg]

Don’t you mean Basket Weaving?

That was Memphis.

 

[She Mate Me]

FWIW, the Warren Nolan prediction from 2+ weeks ago that had us finishing Top 8 RPI by losing 2 of 3 to Texas and Auburn and sweeping TAMU is still in play.

Seemed silly, but it's still possible.

Annnnddddd, it's gone...