UK player stat projections for next year

[JonathanW2]

First off, THANK YOU for taking the time to present your projections. You have spurred interesting discussion during this slow, drought period.

Yes, I agree with you, other than the probably rare occasions where Moreno and Kepnang might play together as DUAL BIGS in certain situations, I do not see either of them "fitting" as PF. My thinking is ... Garrison played 16.3 mpg last year, Moreno (although a Freshman and playing 22.6 mpg last year) tended to disappear in more than a few games, we have lost Dioubate's physicality, Kepnang played 22.9 mpg last year and has averaged 17.3 mpg for his six (6) previous season, Kepnang has more physical and mental maturity at his age, fatigue and foul trouble, etc ... I just think Kepnang's productivity and presence will command more than 12 mpg, as he has only played less than that his Freshman season at Oregon with 8.6 mpg.

A comparison of PER 40 splits from last year:
Moreno: 13.8 / 11.2 / 2.6
Kepnang: 10.8 / 11.0 / 3.6

I agree that Moreno should start and play more, but I can see something like at 24 / 16 split, at least, assuming Moreno has greatly IMPROVED !!
I certainly believe Moreno has far more potential, but I'm not sure he's there yet ... he'll have to show me ... and hopefully, he will.

Franck Kepnang College Stats | College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com

Franck Kepnang - Stats, Game Logs, Splits, and much more

www.sports-reference.com

Malachi Moreno College Stats | College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com

Malachi Moreno - Stats, Game Logs, Splits, and much more

www.sports-reference.com

All valid points you made.

My thinking is:
1) Moreno was a FR, and the biggest jump of improvement is often seen the Soph year, so I am expecting (and so is Pope if the $3M NIL # is accurate) Moreno to take a big step up and be at the 1st or 2nd team all-SEC level
2) Kepnang is 25-26 going into his 7th year, he has reached his ceiling (he is what he is, not likely to improve)

But yeah, I expect it to be in the 24/16 to 28/12 range split. And I wouldn't be shocked (maybe surprised though) if Potter, via his shooting, nudged out up to 4-5mpg, but as you can see I put him at only 1.

But there are no RIGHT or WRONG answers at this point. It is all educated guesses at best.

 

[BBNSZN914]

Wilkins- 18ppg
Moreno - 15ppg
Diallo - 12ppg
Kam - 10ppg
Hawthorne - 9ppg
Starting PF- 8ppg
Bench PF- 7ppg
Bench - 8ppg

87 ppg

tamped it down a few from my original guess

 

[HipTer]

Totally agree. Hawthorne is our Nate Ament & Pope likes him so he & Potter will get the chance to prove themselves.
Pope will play at least 10 players every game for 12 minutes or more .

I don’t know about the Ament comparison. But any UK fan of a certain age can’t help but visually draw comparisons between Tayshaun Prince and B. Hawthorne. However, if you remember, Prince was far from a world beater as a freshman despite playing a lot. But he was pretty good as a sophomore and outstanding as a junior.

I think Hawthorne can outperform Prince’s freshman year, and if he produces similar to Prince’s sophomore year then UK is in a good spot. If Hawthorne were to get near Prince’s junior year next season – way too much to ask – the sky’s the limit for this team in my opinion.

 

[megablue]

All valid points you made.

My thinking is:
1) Moreno was a FR, and the biggest jump of improvement is often seen the Soph year, so I am expecting (and so is Pope if the $3M NIL # is accurate) Moreno to take a big step up and be at the 1st or 2nd team all-SEC level
2) Kepnang is 25-26 going into his 7th year, he has reached his ceiling (he is what he is, not likely to improve)

But yeah, I expect it to be in the 24/16 to 28/12 range split. And I wouldn't be shocked (maybe surprised though) if Potter, via his shooting, nudged out up to 4-5mpg, but as you can see I put him at only 1.

But there are no RIGHT or WRONG answers at this point. It is all educated guesses at best.

You are right ... Potter has a legit stroke and may get more playing time than most here anticipate. Nothing would please me more than for him to stretch the floor at his height

 

[Buckwheat Otay Is Dead]

Totally agree. No where close. We will struggle to score. There will be a lot games where the score is 20 to 8 at the 10 minute mark in the first half.

Total idiot take.

 

[JonathanW2]

Total idiot take.

Although I would be happy with 20-8 (UK in the lead) at 10min mark 1H.

 

[JASUN74]

My personal estimates, assuming we don't add anyone else (which we need to add 1 more scorer).

26-27				Ave
		Yr	Pos	Min	c-min	pf-min	sf-min	2g-min	pg-min	Pts	Reb	Ast	Blk
Moreno (7'0)		2	C	27	27					13	8	2	2
O.N'Diaye (6'11)		1	PF/C	24		24				12	6	1	2
K.Williams (6'8)		3	F	24		2	22			10	4	1	1
Wilkins (6'5)		2	G	30				24	6	13	4	4
Diallo (6'4)		3	PG	30					30	14	4	5
Kepnang (6'11)		4+	C	12	12					4	5	0	1
Potter (7'0)		3*	C	1	1					0	0
McBride (6'7)		4	PF	14		14				5	3	1
B.Hawthorne (6'9)		1*	F	12			12			5	2
Noah (6'6)		3	F	6			6			3	1
J.Morton (6'4)		4	G	15				15		6	2	2
D.Williams (6'2)		1	PG	4					4	1	0	1
Z.Hawthorne (6'1)		1	G	1			1			0	0
				200​	40​	40​	40​	40​	40​	86​	39​	17​	6​

Looks like a Morehead St team to me.