OT: Stock and Investment Thread
- Thread starter RU05
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I think the best answer is your advisor knows more about your personal circumstances (other holdings, time horizon, etc) so listen to them.
But as far as the funds go, it’s a leveraged bet on NVIDIA and war. Surprised the aerospace fund doesn’t have RKLB or ASTS, but overall both funds are relatively trendy right now.
What does your advisor charge you per year as a %? Just curious, as I don't have one, but like to get an idea in case I ever go that direction.
I personally don't tilt too much away from S&P or Total Stock market index. The companies in the aerospace or semi fund are also in the S&P, obviously at lesser weights. It's possible those funds outperform over the next two years, it's also possible they don't. I"m investing for the very long term and not for the next two years.
I would be careful with USD at this time (which is a 2x leveraged ETF on semiconductors). Going with SMH or SOXX is a better/safer idea and it will bring plenty of performance if the sub-sector continues to rally.
Walk me through this : "which is a 2x leveraged ETF on semiconductors" please. I'm not as well versed in finance as I would like to be.
USD is. 25% is NVIDIA, 25% is a handful of other stocks. The other 50% is in money makets or cash fund used to apply for the leverage. Long story short, NVIDIA goes down 10%, its holding in this fund goes down 20. It goes up 10, it goes up 20
PPA has been a very solid performer for a decade outperforming the S&P by a good margin. The Nasdaq has it beat, and the Nasdaq 100 even moreso. So the question would be why defense over tech? Diversification perhaps. Or maybe the thought that the current geopolitical situation makes defense a good bet? It does look like if you buy it here, you are buying a dip, down 10% from it's early March highs. Basically flat ytd.
USD is an aggressive recommendation. You get twice the upside if semiconductors outperform, but conversely twice the downside. With AI continuing to ramp up, there is the thought that semi's have a lot more to run, but one does wonder how much is already in the price. USD is up 300% over the last 12 months. It's up 1000% in 3 years. Hell, it's up 70% in the last month. If you willing to take on more risk(if this were to drop 70% it wouldn't be the first time), hoping for a potential grand slam, this looks like a good place to lay down that bet.
I assume you own other stuff?
This would be just a small piece of my holdings.
My real goal here is to find out if this FA is legit as this is the first time he recommended specific ETFs.
I've never dealt with a FA, but recommending a leveraged ETF just sounds like something that doesn't happen often. Maybe I'm wrong.
Not that it's bad, I own a few and have done well, definitely better then some of the crappy single stocks I've owned, and like I've said the performance is off the charts(think I might buy some myself), but still risky and volatile.
The defense ETF sounds very inline for what would be recommended by a FA.
The only one I own individually is VRT. Three that have to do with storage in the top 5. So many of these on the list supply data centers.
I own it.
Still very cheap. And it provides exposure to Anthropic, which I assume is a significant driver of late.
I own VRT as well.
I did own LYB for awhile but sold near the peak.
I picked up DOW mid rally, and sold high there as well.
Very possible I regret those sales in a year. DOW just put in a reverse head and shoulder. LYB looks pretty similar, but watch for the double top on both.
Definitely worth the time. Great insights, especially on earnings.
Credit to him especially for his patience during turbulence but none of those are hidden finds. Looks to me like he probably tracked retail trader order flows and jumped onboard riding the hedge fund wave as they piled in.
From what I’m reading it’s a bit of the other way around. He had a thesis, made his bets, was right and benefited from retail and hedge funds piling in. At the prices he got in, he clearly wasn’t following retail
That’s not how I interpret the timing/data, especially based on his three largest positions. The inside game these days is tracking retail trader order flows > which then prompt the hedge funds and pro traders to pile in. The biggest challenge is knowing when to hold/sell which is where I think this guy absolutely nailed it. I probably would have sold everyone of those positions and taken profits only to blow it on the incredible upside. Which is why I’m not a money manager. Although much easier to make decisions when it’s not your personal money.
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Not sure where you’re coming up with that theoery. He bought Bloom Q1 2025 in the $20’s. It was down to flat until Q3. Same with Intel, bought in the 20’s in Q1 and it didn’t move until Q4. It’s the same for all of his holdings. Not only didn’t he take profit but he added as his thesis was confirmed.
I understand the deal flow narrative but it really doesn’t seem to apply here. The whole point is he wrote this 150 page AI game theory essay and nailed it. He followed that plan and it paid off.
Yes. But small position for a lottery ticket opportunity!
Good call, exactly what I was thinking.Yes. But small position for a lottery ticket opportunity!
Funny because I’ve held JOBY for over a year…rode it up and down from $18…just bought more last week and this morning. So your question is timely. I’m bullish on the company and problem it solves, especially now with oil center stage. Balance sheet could be a problem but someone will nail eVTOL and make a fortune so JOBY is who I picked to be a winner. But it definitely falls in lottery ticket bucket.
Josh Brown mentioned it on his podcast last week saying essentially what you guys are saying; it's a lottery ticket, no one will know for ten years. I think they are signing contracts with rideshare services to make the whole "taxi" service more seamless. I could be mistaken, but besides New York, they are also making a big push in Abu Dhabi. It's hard to say what will happen if they do get this up and running and one of them has an accident at some point.
I've been in for over a year as well. Took some profit when it got up close to $20, and have added back during the recent fall back to just below $10. I'm bullish as well. Right now their planned ops in UAE are on hold until the Iran problem gets resolved, but once it does and JOBY starts ops I expect a good bump up. Add in continued progress to FAA cert (which is the elephant in the room hurdle) and it'll go higher.
They talked about the essay on CNBC but his top 3 holdings are Bloom, Coreweave, and Intel - they make up almost 45% of his portfolio. He added at strategic points in time which I argue directly correlated to the big run ups in those stocks (driven by retail traders with the hedge fund piggy back). But I haven’t spent a ton of time on it so I’m not pretending to be right and doesn’t matter anyway because he made a fortune.
Retail traders order flows are the worst kept secret by Big Money. That data is basically legal insider trading and prop trading desks are feasting on it
