The economy
- Thread starter Rastafarian
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didn't you think it would get this high prior to this - given what's going on in Iran? I did.
And, if the blockade continues, I'd expect it to get even higher. It wouldn't surprise me if some states decide to put a moratorium on state gas taxes.
In another ~10 days Iran runs out of places to store their oil. They can’t cap the wells without permanently harming them. It will be interesting to see the price of oil if / when that happens.
The market has been resilient with oil this high, but it won’t last. Either oil comes down or stock prices are going to come down.
My guess is a deal of some type is made and oil gradually comes back down into midterms. But that is far from certain
We’ve lost manufacturing jobs during Trump’s tenure thanks to his rollback of the CHIPS act. This is just sentiment and it is still very low
I would not be surprised at all to see $6 gas in a decent number of states by the summer
The AI bubble is actively popping. OpenAI is missing revenue and user targets. There is no earthly way they make the revenue they need to to keep their thing going. Oracle is overleveraged on debt. Everyone is raising the cost to users to try to turn a profit.
Oil/commodities traders are freaking out. The last shipments from the Middle East have reached their destinations. I don’t think people quite realize how bad this could potentially get
Oil/commodities traders are freaking out. The last shipments from the Middle East have reached their destinations. I don’t think people quite realize how bad this could potentially get
I would take that bet.
If i had to put money on it, the price of gas will be lower by mid-terms. Late summer at the latest.
I don’t know enough about commodities to take that bet lol. A lot of it depends on demand destruction and how much happens
It certainly COULD happen, just don't think it's most likely. I think Trump likes to win and if he wants to win mid terms he has to get the price of oil down. If you are correct and gas averages $6 a gallon through summer, Democrats will moonwalk into both the senate and house during mid-terms.
I can almost guarantee there will be some kind of deal, and de escalation before midterms. I would be astonished if not, hence why i would take that bet.
Yes they can. It will be an environmental disaster, but you are correct they could. It may be their best option too, idk. Not our problem.
Lutnick said we'd get a 1Q GDP of 5%. Turns out it was 2%
The bank trading desks tied to the federal reserve cabal are running the show with uncertainty & FOMO. Throw in sovereign wealth funds with passive investing from payroll deductions.
When wealthy people with large gains from markets propped up by the treasury & the non government federal reserve bank cabal increasing the fiat currency money supply complain about paying taxes, you rarely hear anything about the government benefits they derive from this.
When wealthy people with large gains from markets propped up by the treasury & the non government federal reserve bank cabal increasing the fiat currency money supply complain about paying taxes, you rarely hear anything about the government benefits they derive from this.
Major U.S. bank trading desks are experiencing a massive revenue surge in early 2026, with top institutions poised for a record-breaking $40 billion+ first quarter driven by high market volatility, geopolitical tensions, and increased client activity. Key players like JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley reported record or near-record Q1 2026 trading revenue,, with equities and fixed-income desks acting as major profit engines.
you have to admit, spending money to build the ballroom will add to the GDP, and help employment....
For some of these people, only if Biden built the ballroom would it add to GDP.
Groovy, I asked Claude and it told me:
U.S. GDP is roughly $29–30 trillion annually. Even taking the high-end $400 million figure, that's about 0.0013% of GDP— essentially a rounding error. Construction spending does count toward GDP, but the effect is negligible at this scale.
So if tearing down parts of historical government buildings without authorization doesn't matter because it helps GDP, then we'll tear it down(without asking) when we re-take office and turn it into an Obama museum that we will use for Pride month in June. That will be even better for GDP since we can charge admission. Deal?
works for me. I'm pretty sure that although I've been in white house many times, at this point of my life, I seriously doubt I'll be there in the future.
My point, which you missed, was that since folks on the left want to highlight slower than expected GDP, they shouldn't overlook how every little bit on the growth side might help alleviate the shortfall. Of course, those on the right are all in on the ballroom no matter if it added or detracted from GDP.
I’m on the opposite side.
I’m operating on the assumption Iran war is wrapped up for midterms.
All the mega caps are investing record amounts into research and development. I think those investments will pay off in short time.
Market trading 21x fwd earnings which is historically a little elevated but has room to expand.
Lots of risk. There will be sell offs, but 6mo to 1 year from now I think we will be higher
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So we need to curb our use of fossil fuels in America while this is going on? Why don’t we start with the low hanging fruit.
. What do - the most educated people - think we do about this?
Why? What are we replacing oil with? Wind? No other energy source is even close to making sense from a productivity or efficiency standpoint aside from nuclear. And we know how all the - educated people - feel about that.
Two weeks ago there was a poll showing the “upper middle class” was the largest and wealthiest in American history. Which one is it?
Liberal states with ridiculous taxes for sure. That’s their own fault. Californians were paying $7/gallon and right across the border in AZ it is $4/gallon. You don’t factor that in?
The AI data centers collectivity ran 8-10% yesterday on Wall St on that “bad news”. Btw the big players all exceeded their targets, goog, aapl, amzn, msft, meta. Semiconductor stocks are absolutely parabolic. I bought AMD in September for $161, it closed at $354 yesterday. Nvda all time high. Vertiv crushing. Wtf are you talking about? You have no clue. Lol.
He qualified it with "potentially". In that respect he is correct. If oil doesn't come down, i'll agree with him that things could get bad fast.
But Trump seemingly has the pressure release valve. If the pressure gets too high, he has room to give on Iran and can release the pressure and theoretically lower the price of oil.
Oil is half the equation and the other half is AI.
IMO AI is on track and most companies like META, AMZN, and MSFT reported earnings yesterday and they were all strong. Some traded lower because they were criticized for investing too much in r&d. I think that is a good thing and used it as a buying opportunity. I like META low $60X's, bought a bunch. Like MSFT low $40x's.
Oil is the wild card. If oil comes back down, it feels like the rest of the market is primed at the pump for Q2 and midterms.
Yes, I factor that in. I’m talking national average. I drive ~40 miles a week so I couldn’t care less about high gas taxes. They should be even higher
Good article on Oil market mechanics. How long can the world go without creating demand destruction? JP morgan suggests September at the latest, but June as the earliest.
"Illusion Of Plenty": JPMorgan Explains Why Hormuz Will Reopen By September... One Way Or Another | ZeroHedge
"Illusion Of Plenty": JPMorgan Explains Why Hormuz Will Reopen By September... One Way Or Another | ZeroHedge
Ah typical response from you. “Dumb libtard who doesn’t know what he’s talking about”
What “AI data centers” ran 8-10%? Yeah Google was up big. But Amazon, MSFT, and Meta (big in their case) were all down. Nvidia was down as well. Also, the stock market famously is perfectly rational and an excellent indicator of how well the economy is doing. That’s why the market hit an ATH in October 2007
Solar has gotten way cheaper
So why are you crying if you don’t care. I fill my car up 2-3 times a week. You don’t care about the high taxes that are 50% of the cost in places like California? But your post is a warning that gas will be $6. I show you it’s well above that now bc taxes and your response is, it should be higher???? What are you even saying? Are you just a troll man?
Iren cifr clsk hive keel crwv nbis. How many more you want? What????? Meta msft amzn goog all beat. Nvda just hit an ATH. You sir, are clueless.