(which I don't understand) the NCAA tournament is expanding to 76 teams.
I love it, but I like sports.
I love it, but I like sports.
Bad news for those of you who don't want more sports
- Thread starter greenbean.sixpack
- Start date
Just go to 96. Regular season & conference tournament champs get an auto bid. 17-24 seeds play Wed-Thur, then 2nd round Fri-Sat, and 3rd Sun-Mon to get to 16.
Guess we won’t be making the Field of 76 either. Not if this past years play continues into ‘26-27.
I love sports and love the NCAA Tournament but damn is it like tee ball where you play and you get a participation trophy - trophy in the ncaa being an invite to the tournament?
At some point you need to earn your way in.
Really no way now that the 15 and 16 seeds and the play in teams have a shot at winning the whole thing anyway.
That’s 12 teams, now you’re going to add 8 more teams with no shot at winning it?
I love sports and love the NCAA Tournament but damn is it like tee ball where you play and you get a participation trophy - trophy in the ncaa being an invite to the tournament?
At some point you need to earn your way in.
Really no way now that the 15 and 16 seeds and the play in teams have a shot at winning the whole thing anyway.
That’s 12 teams, now you’re going to add 8 more teams with no shot at winning it?
There’s never more than about 16-20 teams that have any chance of winning it. I’d love to see it go back to 48. But that’ll never happen. So 64, 68, 76, 96, 128, what does it matter?Guess we won’t be making the Field of 76 either. Not if this past years play continues into ‘26-27.
I love sports and love the NCAA Tournament but damn is it like tee ball where you play and you get a participation trophy - trophy in the ncaa being an invite to the tournament?
At some point you need to earn your way in.
Really no way now that the 15 and 16 seeds and the play in teams have a shot at winning the whole thing anyway.
That’s 12 teams, now you’re going to add 8 more teams with no shot at winning it?
You can add as many play in games as you want- the real tournament starts in the round of 64.Guess we won’t be making the Field of 76 either. Not if this past years play continues into ‘26-27.
I love sports and love the NCAA Tournament but damn is it like tee ball where you play and you get a participation trophy - trophy in the ncaa being an invite to the tournament?
At some point you need to earn your way in.
Really no way now that the 15 and 16 seeds and the play in teams have a shot at winning the whole thing anyway.
That’s 12 teams, now you’re going to add 8 more teams with no shot at winning it?
I don’t know why 64 was a bad number.
48 was good, seems like it changed in the early-mid 80’s ?
Well I do know, and its $$$
Tough call between 48 and 64. If you go 48 there will be some good teams with 20+ wins who get left out. I can’t see a reason to go beyond 64 other than enhanced revenue.
March Madness is about many things.Guess we won’t be making the Field of 76 either. Not if this past years play continues into ‘26-27.
I love sports and love the NCAA Tournament but damn is it like tee ball where you play and you get a participation trophy - trophy in the ncaa being an invite to the tournament?
At some point you need to earn your way in.
Really no way now that the 15 and 16 seeds and the play in teams have a shot at winning the whole thing anyway.
That’s 12 teams, now you’re going to add 8 more teams with no shot at winning it?
One of those things is the potential for upsets. It is what makes the tournament so damn fun to watch and it is why brackets are filled out in offices across the country every year.
More games = more upsets.
Sure, the same 12 or so teams have basically the same chance of winning it all.
But before then, there will be some upsets and it's what helps make the tournament fun.
I had ChatGPT break down the tournament since 85 when it went to 64
Translation:
Even though upsets get the headlines, the deeper you go, the more the bracket favors top seeds.
There’s no single “official” average published by the NCAA, but combining historical data:
In practical terms:
Here are the deepest Cinderella runs:
Key takeaway:
11-seed is the true Cinderella ceiling in this era.
Important:
After that:
If you’re thinking like a bracket builder:
Big Picture: How “chalky” is the tournament?
- Since 1985, No. 1 seeds dominate:
- 26 of ~40 championships won by 1-seeds
- They also make the Final Four a lot:
- About 40% of all Final Four spots are 1-seeds
- That’s roughly 1.6 No. 1 seeds per Final Four
Translation:Even though upsets get the headlines, the deeper you go, the more the bracket favors top seeds.
Average Seeds in the Final Four
There’s no single “official” average published by the NCAA, but combining historical data:Typical Final Four profile (since 1985)
- Average seed per team: ~3 to 4
- Most common mix looks like:
- 1, 2, 3, 4
- or 1, 1, 2, 3
In practical terms:- You usually get 2 top-2 seeds
- 1–2 teams from the 3–5 range
- Occasionally one Cinderella (7–11 range)
Extreme examples
- Most chalk ever:2008, 2025
- All four teams were No. 1 seeds
- Most chaos:2011
- Seeds: 3, 4, 8, 11
Highest (Worst) Seeds to Reach the Final Four
Here are the deepest Cinderella runs:Final Four appearances
- No. 11 seed (lowest ever)
- LSU Tigers men's basketball
- George Mason Patriots men's basketball
- VCU Rams men's basketball
- Loyola Chicago Ramblers men's basketball
- UCLA Bruins men's basketball
Key takeaway:11-seed is the true Cinderella ceiling in this era.
Highest Seeds to Reach the National Championship Game
Lowest seeds to play for the title:
- No. 8 seed (lowest ever)
- Villanova Wildcats men's basketball (won it all)
- North Carolina Tar Heels men's basketball (runner-up)
- Kentucky Wildcats men's basketball (runner-up)
Important:- No team seeded 9–16 has ever reached the title game
Highest Seeds to Win the Championship
- No. 8 seed (lowest ever champion)
- Villanova Wildcats men's basketball
- Next notable:
- No. 7 seed: UConn Huskies men's basketball
After that:- Almost every champion is seeded 1–3
What This Means (Simple Heuristics)
If you’re thinking like a bracket builder:Final Four expectations
- Expect:
- 1–2 No. 1 seeds
- 1–2 teams seeded 2–4
- Maybe 1 Cinderella (7–11)
Championship expectations
- Almost always:
- 1, 2, or 3 seed wins it
- Rare exceptions:
- 7 seed (2014)
- 8 seed (1985)
Bottom line
- Average Final Four seed ≈ 3–4
- Most common champion = No. 1 seed
- Cinderella ceiling:
- Final Four → 11 seed
- Title game → 8 seed
- Champion → 8 seed (rare), realistically 1–3
Interesting from NCAA website. All time records by seeds. Looking at this 1-7 seeds are truly competitive. 8-9 seeds are marginally competitive. After that it’s fluff playing essentially exhibition games for money. With a 48 team field you might leave out 4 marginally competitive teams, accounting for auto bids. So the NCAA really jumped the shark on this in 1994.
https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketbal...ball-tournament-seed-records-all-time-history
Don’t forget about the dreaded 12-5 seed games
12 seeds have a 35% upset rate and have reached the sweet sixteen 21 times since 2000
That’s still about a 20% win rate overall, and 25% in the 1st round (not 31%). Not very competitive.
This isn’t nearly as bad as adding bowl games, because these games actually matter (marginally, but they do affect the national championship in some way).
Did you not watch the opening weekend? There were some great games, why would you want less?
I think a lot of you really aren’t sports fans, you watch sports because you’re expected to but you want to watch as little as possible.
How is adding more bowls bad? Just don't watch the ones you don't like.
I think what you're missing is the 'system' part of it. Many people, like me, used to enjoy the yearly, expected, and anticipated 'events' of college sports. It's never been perfect, but you could always count on certain things. National Signing Day, the bowl season with all games mattering, relatively repeatable scheduling, figuring out what metrics needed to make it into tournaments, selection shows, rivalries, etc. We all debated, and we all had a good idea what was going on. With things just constantly changing for no other reason than the almighty dollar, it really just waters things down and makes it less enjoyable from a 'fanboy' perspective.
Now sure, I can sit in my recliner and watch all the games I want. But I have much less desire to actually go to a game, follow crootin, be involved, etc. What I expected and anticipated for 40 years, is no longer there anymore. And I don't think the games have gotten better. I think people are just sitting around watching TV with little excitement and thus those numbers are going up. I do wonder if there is a plateau.
There's really never more than 7 or 8 teams that realistically have a shot at winning it. Yeah an outlier can make a run occasionally but the bluebloods are usually a lock for the elite 8
I am obviously in the minority but I haven't watched any March madness games over the past two or maybe three years. It just seems like another episode of The Wives from some city or state. Just artificial setup drama disguised as reality.
I'm the same. I have to assume it's just our ages. Nothing is as interesting when you've seen it dozens of times. It seems to be as popular as ever with younger crowds??
A few minutes after I posted this I turned on the Dan Patrick show and they were talking about the expansion. The Real Housewives came up in their conversation on the topic. They must follow SPS.
I don't know how anyone would know what to think about major issues without getting this board's input.
Same here. First weekend (especially first round) is pretty meaningless really. It’s just overkill. But I don’t care if they expand it. It’s all about more games & more money.
Sure. But that money rolls in because the tournament is so popular. And the tournament is so popular because, in part, upsets can happen.
Davids can take down Goliaths.
This may only happen rarely. And this may not happen much beyond the first few rounds, but it happens often enough for it to help fuel a ton of interest.
And that interest = money.
Didn't watch a single game this year, and won't when it expands unless we are in it. Weird because I used to watch every second of every game they televised in my area.
Same here but it's been more than two or three seasons for me
At this point just make everyone eligible for the tournament and start it at the beginning of the season. It’s now a quintuple elimination tournament. Lose 5 you’re out. Any games played after losing 5 are consolation games.