What constitutes success for MSU football in 2026?

[Anon201138]

I see some negativity regarding Lebby, recruiting etc. I’m usually a natural skeptic. But I am cautiously optimistic in Lebby, Kamario, and the team.

With 9 conference games now 6-6 means 3 conference wins.

To me this season goes one of 3 ways:
1.) Bad, Lebby fired
2.) Decent/good season, very hopeful for ‘27 and beyond with Lebby/Kamario
3.) Great season that exceeds expectations, Lebby gets an extension/raise

For me personally, the threshold for scenario #1 is 5-7 or worse, for scenario #2 is 6-7 wins, and for scenario #3 is 8+ wins.

In your opinion, how many wins constitutes success this season?

 

[dawgstudent]

7+ wins however you get there. 6 he probably keeps his job.

 

[champdawg.sixpack]

7 wins.

 

[greenbean.sixpack]

7+ wins however you get there. 6 he probably keeps his job.

^^^^100%

 

[Jeffreauxdawg]

A. Lebby getting fired.
B. Not getting relegated to the Sun Belt after the season.
C. Boobie Dixon selling his fracking company for $18 billion and committing literal billions to the program in NIL funding.
D. All of the above

There's a less and less likely Fourplay here that I am not taking the time to create.

 

[Anon201138]

7+ wins however you get there. 6 he probably keeps his job.

I think the most important game on the schedule is actually not a conference game but Minnesota. Lose that one and you have to get 4 conference wins to go .500. Not to mention the momentum swing up, or down if we lose. GOT to win that ballgame.

 

[615dawg]

Its not going to happen. Without a servicable offensive line, we are looking at a 2-10 season. Got to get rid of High School Lebby and make a good hire. That will be success.

 

[Shmuley]

I don't mind putting it in writing that the worst case scenario is 5 or 6 wins, especially 6. I don't trust the pork palace brain trust to do the right thing unless it is forced on them. He either gets all the way to 7 in the regular season or he needs to flame out spectacularly and get sh!+canned during the season.

 

[Pak Drescott]

7 wins = success. 8 wins would require a winning record in SEC games, something we've only done once this century (2014)

 

[Anon201138]

I don't mind putting it in writing that the worst case scenario is 5 or 6 wins, especially 6. I don't trust the pork palace brain trust to do the right thing unless it is forced on them. He either gets all the way to 7 in the regular season or he needs to flame out spectacularly and get sh!+canned during the season.

We won’t keep him at 5-7. 6-6 we will, and he probably deserves to stay at 6-6 with a nine conference game schedule. 6-6 would mean we not only beat Minnesota on the road but also (probably) 3/4 from South Carolina, Vandy, Auburn and Mizzou. He stays with that

 

[Anon201138]

7 wins = success. 8 wins would require a winning record in SEC games, something we've only done once this century (2014)

To make a run in the playoff eventually, which I think is doable in the next 3-5 years, we will have to be better than the 2014 team. Probably substantially better.

No one wants to admit it, and we all want to beat our chest and say we were ranked #1 for a month, but the 2014 team did not beat a single SEC team with a winning conference record. Beat one team that finished ranked—#22 Auburn. Just facts.

 

[OG Goat Holder]

Next year or just in general?

I used to say bowl games but that is essentially meaningless now. But, it's still a decent benchmark. So 6-6 with a chance at a playoff every 5 years, balanced out by a down year.

I don't mind putting it in writing that the worst case scenario is 5 or 6 wins, especially 6. I don't trust the pork palace brain trust to do the right thing unless it is forced on them. He either gets all the way to 7 in the regular season or he needs to flame out spectacularly and get sh!+canned during the season.

You know he won't make it that easy. Even Croom made it difficult. I'm sure Heavy will find a way to get 5 or 6 wins, and we won't fire him at 5-7.

 

[Anon201138]

Next year or just in general?

I used to say bowl games but that is essentially meaningless now. But, it's still a decent benchmark. So 6-6 with a chance at a playoff every 5 years, balanced out by a down year.


You know he won't make it that easy. Even Croom made it difficult. I'm sure Heavy will find a way to get 5 or 6 wins, and we won't fire him at 5-7.

We should fire him at 5-7. If he was just an incredible recruiter, I would say MAYBE keep him 5-7. But he’s not. Our portal class this year was ranked 35th, 15th in the SEC

 

[thekimmer]

Winning every game and a the playoffs would constitute success.

 

[OG Goat Holder]

We should fire him at 5-7. If he was just an incredible recruiter, I would say MAYBE keep him 5-7. But he’s not. Our portal class this year was ranked 35th, 15th in the SEC

We should have fired him last year, and went and gotten Willie Fritz (who we should have hired in 2024). Fritz probably won't coach another 10 years but he'd have stabilized the program for 2-3.

If we do fire him Selmon gonna go out and get more the same. They don't learn and have no idea what would work at MSU.

 

[Anon201138]

We should have fired him last year, and went and gotten Willie Fritz (who we should have hired in 2024). Fritz probably won't coach another 10 years but he'd have stabilized the program for 2-3.

If we do fire him Selmon gonna go out and get more the same. They don't learn and have no idea what would work at MSU.

I don’t think we should have fired him last year. Look he came into a mess you had to give him a chance. We’ve got to give him a chance this year as well and support him, skepticism aside

 

[LandArchDawg]

6-6 and not looking clueless.

 

[OG Goat Holder]

I don’t think we should have fired him last year. Look he came into a mess you had to give him a chance. We’ve got to give him a chance this year as well and support him, skepticism aside

Heavy Lebby is a bum

 

[L4Dawg]

6 wins, but I'm not sure I even see 3.

 

[L4Dawg]

If we do fire him Selmon gonna go out and get more the same. They don't learn and have no idea what would work at MSU.

And neither do you. Or me, or anyone else.

 

[johnson86-1]

To me, the floor for a successful season is (1) 6 wins, (2) Kamario looks like something special that recruits will want to come and play with, and (3) we keep Kamario without blowing our budget for the next year. If we stumble to 6-6 with a bunch of ugly football, then that is just purgatory.

If we get to 7 wins, then the other stuff doesn't matter. If we go 5-7, time to fire Lebby regardless. Our schedule could end up being harder than it looks and 5 wins be pretty decent, but Lebby had a much easier schedule than anticipated last year and didn't cash in on it. Don't get to fail to cash in on the unexpectedly easier schedule and then also claim an unexpectedly harder schedule as an excuse.

 

[40 acres and a mule]

6-6 and not looking clueless.

Not doing stupid crap like he did last year would certainly help. Anyone optimistic? I am not.

 

[The Cooterpoot]

6+ wins a win over OM Lose to OM and it's 7 wins or hit the road

 

[Anon201138]

To me, the floor for a successful season is (1) 6 wins, (2) Kamario looks like something special that recruits will want to come and play with, and (3) we keep Kamario without blowing our budget for the next year. If we stumble to 6-6 with a bunch of ugly football, then that is just purgatory.

If we get to 7 wins, then the other stuff doesn't matter. If we go 5-7, time to fire Lebby regardless. Our schedule could end up being harder than it looks and 5 wins be pretty decent, but Lebby had a much easier schedule than anticipated last year and didn't cash in on it. Don't get to fail to cash in on the unexpectedly easier schedule and then also claim an unexpectedly harder schedule as an excuse.

You’re right about our schedule:

2025 Resume SEC College Football Power Index - ESPN

View the 2025 SEC conference Resume College Football power index on ESPN. The FPI is the best predictor of a team's performance of the season.

www.espn.com

We all thought it was one of the toughest in the nation, but according to ESPN our end of year SOS rankings was 13th out of 16th in the SEC.

Which makes me wonder. We were certainly better than 2024, which by the way was the #2 SOS end of year in SEC, but how much better? It’s hard to say. Let’s just hope for 7 wins.

 

[DoggieDaddy13]

To make a run in the playoff eventually, which I think is doable in the next 3-5 years, we will have to be better than the 2014 team. Probably substantially better.

No one wants to admit it, and we all want to beat our chest and say we were ranked #1 for a month, but the 2014 team did not beat a single SEC team with a winning conference record. Beat one team that finished ranked—#22 Auburn. Just facts.

Thank you!

As much fun as that season was - FOR THREE WEEKS ONLY - it was fool's gold. And while I don't think our teams was better than Bama or OM on paper, I will never forgive Dick Mullet for quitting on the season after we got to Number 1.

We barely beat UK and Arky and looked like the Keystone Cops for the first three quarters against BAMA.

And Hugh Freeze and his coked-up/hookered-up team beat the hell out of us.

And the Orange Bowl was an embarrassment.

We were damnlucky to have Dak as our team leader that year. He was absolutely the difference.

 

[patdog]

2 wins. Lebby fired. **.

seriously , 6 wins.

 

[DAWGSANDSAINTS]

Success technically would be winning 6 games and making a bowl.
But that’s a bad place to be just hoping to win 6 games.
7 wins would be outstanding and tell me that maybe we have a chance to get something going in our football program.
5 wins tells me it’s time to explore other options.
I have no expectations whatsoever of us winning 8 games. I don’t even think it’s reasonably possible and that’s pathetic.

 

[Seinfeld]

For me, the big question for Lebby is can he find a way to get out of his own way this season?

Between ASU, UF, Tex, Tenn, and Ark, that’s 5 games that were riddled with self inflicted wounds even though we won two of them. Hell, you can honestly put Missouri in there too. Last season really wasn't, or maybe I should say SHOULD’NT have been that bad, but man did we have a knack for finding ways to beat ourselves. Stop doing that, and 7-9 wins isn’t a pipe dream. I just haven’t seen anything from Lebby that gives me confidence that it’ll get fixed, though

 

[Bulldog45]

Whether achievable or not with the roster and opponents we have, a winning record in year 3 should be the definition of success.

 

[dog99walker]

Wins; lots of wins!

 

[Dawgbite]

A new coach, actually a lot of new coaches.

 

[Anon201138]

Thank you!

As much fun as that season was - FOR THREE WEEKS ONLY - it was fool's gold. And while I don't think our teams was better than Bama or OM on paper, I will never forgive Dick Mullet for quitting on the season after we got to Number 1.

We barely beat UK and Arky and looked like the Keystone Cops for the first three quarters against BAMA.

And Hugh Freeze and his coked-up/hookered-up team beat the hell out of us.

And the Orange Bowl was an embarrassment.

We were damnlucky to have Dak as our team leader that year. He was absolutely the difference.

It was still our best season in a long time, but yeah it’s where you finish. The only 3 actually good teams we played, we lost to—our best win was over an 8-5 Auburn lol. Still fun times though, better than now.

We can get much better and top that with the right guy though.

 

[Anon201138]

A new coach, actually a lot of new coaches.

If that’s what you want I understand. But I don’t think we should root for the team to lose.

 

[Dawgbite]

If that’s what you want I understand. But I don’t think we should root for the team to lose.

Rooting for and facing reality based on a “lot” of past experiences are two entirely different things. Also I’m a firm believer in the reverse jinx.

 

[patdog]

If that’s what you want I understand. But I don’t think we should root for the team to lose.

Agree. I hope we win 8 & I get ridiculed for being wrong. I really do. But if we’re not going to win 6, I hope we don’t win more than 3 or 4. I’m afraid Selmon would keep
Him at 5 wins.

 

[The Peeper]

The only 3 actually good teams we played, we lost to—our best win was over an 8-5 Auburn lol.

I would think a win over eventual 8-5 LSU in Death Valley would rank higher in "best wins" than a win at home over eventual 8-5 Auburn

 

[Anon201138]

I would think a win over eventual 8-5 LSU in Death Valley would rank higher in "best wins" than a win at home over eventual 8-5 Auburn

That’s fine. Either way, the best school we beat had 5 losses and was either unranked or ranked #23 at the end. Still our best year in forever, but the truth is we weren’t nearly as good as most of our fanbase thinks we were.

 

[Lucifer Morningstar]

Thank you!

As much fun as that season was - FOR THREE WEEKS ONLY - it was fool's gold. And while I don't think our teams was better than Bama or OM on paper, I will never forgive Dick Mullet for quitting on the season after we got to Number 1.

We barely beat UK and Arky and looked like the Keystone Cops for the first three quarters against BAMA.

And Hugh Freeze and his coked-up/hookered-up team beat the hell out of us.

And the Orange Bowl was an embarrassment.

We were damnlucky to have Dak as our team leader that year. He was absolutely the difference.

Actually, when I first came to this board, I made the comment that we were never really the number one that year, as evidenced by getting blown out down the stretch several times (OM, Bama, GT). I took some heat for that, but I remember leaving the Orange Bowl knowing it was true after the 17ing dive back for GT ran for 250 yards and 3 td's on us.

 

[OG Goat Holder]

That’s fine. Either way, the best school we beat had 5 losses and was either unranked or ranked #23 at the end. Still our best year in forever, but the truth is we weren’t nearly as good as most of our fanbase thinks we were.

Our only true national championship caliber team of my lifetime was the 2000 team. They had the talent and experience to get it done. Hell with the record. 2018 had Mullen stayed, might have been in that territory.

That's why I don't assign a number of wins as being successful. Was 5-7 this year the same as Mullen's first year?

But this brings me to a different point.....what's the similarity with those two teams and really 2-3 year 'era'? DEFENSE.

 

[Villagedawg]

A. Lebby getting fired.
B. Not getting relegated to the Sun Belt after the season.
C. Boobie Dixon selling his fracking company for $18 billion and committing literal billions to the program in NIL funding.
D. All of the above

There's a less and less likely Fourplay here that I am not taking the time to create.

I choose B as the measure of success for 2026 football. Just keep it afloat.