SIAP, Massey Ratings Iowa FB win probability

[rchawk]

100% Northern Illinois 9/5
100% Northern Iowa 9/19
91% Purdue 11/14
83% Wisconsin 10/31
80% Nebraska 11/27
75% at Northwestern 11/7
74% at Minnesota 10/24
68% Iowa State 9/12
57% at Illinois 11/21
41% at Washington 10/10
35% at Michigan 9/26
17% Ohio State 10/3

That's 9-3, seems about right. Could be better! Hawks winning their last six games would not be surprising considering KF teams.

 

[DuddyB]

100% Northern Illinois 9/5
100% Northern Iowa 9/19
91% Purdue 11/14
83% Wisconsin 10/31
80% Nebraska 11/27
75% at Northwestern 11/7
74% at Minnesota 10/24
68% Iowa State 9/12
57% at Illinois 11/21
41% at Washington 10/10
35% at Michigan 9/26
17% Ohio State 10/3

That's 9-3, seems about right. Could be better! Hawks winning their last six games would not be surprising considering KF teams.

Those all feel about right with the exception of the Iowa St game. I can’t see them being much of a threat. I’d put it more along 80%.

 

[rchawk]

Those all feel about right with the exception of the Iowa St game. I can’t see them being much of a threat. I’d put it more along 80%.

I agree, highly doubt ISU will be as good as Nebraska in 2026. Of course Iowa is often rolling in November.

 

[r_desihawk]

ignore

 

[eyesofhawk]

0-0

 

[oldxbbc]

Hope the first three comments of this thread are correct.

 

[Burgers]

100% Northern Illinois 9/5
100% Northern Iowa 9/19
91% Purdue 11/14
83% Wisconsin 10/31
80% Nebraska 11/27
75% at Northwestern 11/7
74% at Minnesota 10/24
68% Iowa State 9/12
57% at Illinois 11/21
41% at Washington 10/10
35% at Michigan 9/26
17% Ohio State 10/3

That's 9-3, seems about right. Could be better! Hawks winning their last six games would not be surprising considering KF teams.

Those win probabilities add up to 8.21 expected wins. So more likely to have 8 wins than 9.

 

[BringBackBradBanks]

If we only have a 68% chance of beating ISU it’s going to be a long year!

 

[JerseyCityHawk]

100% Northern Illinois 9/5
100% Northern Iowa 9/19
91% Purdue 11/14
83% Wisconsin 10/31
80% Nebraska 11/27
75% at Northwestern 11/7
74% at Minnesota 10/24
68% Iowa State 9/12
57% at Illinois 11/21
41% at Washington 10/10
35% at Michigan 9/26
17% Ohio State 10/3

That's 9-3, seems about right. Could be better! Hawks winning their last six games would not be surprising considering KF teams.

12-0 Natty

 

[10001110101]

Those win probabilities add up to 8.21 expected wins. So more likely to have 8 wins than 9.

You might be right, but I’m marking this as incorrect because you didn’t show your math.

 

[Jonesy5960]

I agree, highly doubt ISU will be as good as Nebraska in 2026. Of course Iowa is often rolling in November.

Nebraska sucks.

That is all.

 

[rchawk]

Nebraska sucks.

That is all.

I should have worded that better.

It is likely that Nebraska will be less than good this year.

I expect Iowa State to be even less less than good than Nebraska.

Hope that is helpful.

 

[Iron Doc]

Is State going to field a team this Fall?

 

[WeBeHerkin]

Can't say why for sure yet, but I expect Minnesota to be a tougher out this year.