MS one of eight states to see double digit losses in K-12 enrollment

[615dawg]

I'm on a roll with education topics lately, so let me add one more.

This is the expected increase (or decrease) in K-12 enrollment by 2031. We are going to see some mass layoffs of K-12 administrators and teachers next decade. And our legislature has to start taking a hard look at consolidating some community colleges and possibly closing some 4-year schools. Enrollment is going to be an issue from kindergarten through college.

 

[jethreauxdawg]

I'm on a roll with education topics lately, so let me add one more.

This is the expected increase (or decrease) in K-12 enrollment by 2031. We are going to see some mass layoffs of K-12 administrators and teachers next decade. And our legislature has to start taking a hard look at consolidating some community colleges and possibly closing some 4-year schools. Enrollment is going to be an issue from kindergarten through college.

Whoa, I bet Idaho house pricing is skyrocketing

 

[615dawg]

Whoa, I bet Idaho house pricing is skyrocketing

Yep. Conversely, there are schools in Illinois that they are refusing to close that have such low enrollment they are effectively spending $50,000 per student to keep open.

 

[jethreauxdawg]

Yep. Conversely, there are schools in Illinois that they are refusing to close that have such low enrollment they are effectively spending $50,000 per student to keep open.

Yes, Illinois is jacked up.

 

[saltybulldog]

I'm on a roll with education topics lately, so let me add one more.

This is the expected increase (or decrease) in K-12 enrollment by 2031. We are going to see some mass layoffs of K-12 administrators and teachers next decade. And our legislature has to start taking a hard look at consolidating some community colleges and possibly closing some 4-year schools. Enrollment is going to be an issue from kindergarten through college.

This is where real leadership (or the lack of) at the state level will show up in the next decade or so. If we can’t create policy/incentives to keep and bring in young families, the school enrollment issue will be small potatoes.
Of course, this trend is going to start hitting all states soon enough.

 

[OG Goat Holder]

So what does that mean, exactly? You've got some high growth states like TX, GA and NC that are in the negative, albeit a small amount.

I guess the more significant number is the double digit losses, like CA, NY and unfortunately MS. Problem is, CA/NY can weather the losses. MS can't.

Is this just public school enrollment? If so, that makes a lot more sense.

 

[POTUS]

The disparity between AR, OK, TX, LA, MS, AL & TN is interesting to me. At first glance I don't see why neighboring states would have such different outcomes.

 

[615dawg]

So what does that mean, exactly? You've got some high growth states like TX, GA and NC that are in the negative, albeit a small amount.

I guess the more significant number is the double digit losses, like CA, NY and unfortunately MS. Problem is, CA/NY can weather the losses. MS can't.

Is this just public school enrollment? If so, that makes a lot more sense.

Its all K-12 enrollment, public and private. The enrollment cliff is real. The early numbers said the South would be okay, but its not all the South. MS and LA are in for a world of hurt if changes aren't made.

And you can start to see it if you look. Nursery and children's church at my church used to be full every Sunday. Now there may be 1-2 babies and a half dozen in children's church (3-4 year olds) despite the church doubling in size the last decade.

The disparity between AR, OK, TX, LA, MS, AL & TN is interesting to me. At first glance I don't see why neighboring states would have such different outcomes.

I don't want to keep piling on but we have a brain drain issue in the state. Our best and brightest are leaving the state at a high clip. A lot of them end up in Tennessee and Alabama, who are seeing slight increases in enrollment. The ones that are staying behind aren't having children at a high rate.

Just looking at births in Mississippi the last five years that are available

2019: 36,634
2020: 35,480
2021: 35,166
2022: 34,678
2023: 34,354

Declining every year. 6.2% decrease from 2019 to 2023. In 2006, we had over 46,000 births. This year's high school seniors - we had 44,893 births in 2008. 28,994 graduated high school last year in the state. That's a big number of families who have left the state.

Meanwhile in Alabama:

2019: 58,615
2020: 57,643
2021: 58,040
2022: 58,162
2023: 58,858

A slight drop in 2020, but increasing every year since, and a 0.4% increase from 2019 to 2023.

Tennessee follows the same pattern, but has seen a 2.6% increase from '19-'23:

2019: 80,854
2020: 79,854
2021: 81,717
2022: 80,061
2023: 83,021

 

[STATEgrad04]

Would it be fair for me to assume that for a state like MS the decline is due to people leaving the state, while a state like NC it would be more indicative of people choosing to do homeschool?

 

[615dawg]

Would it be fair for me to assume that for a state like MS the decline is due to people leaving the state, while a state like NC it would be more indicative of people choosing to do homeschool?

Homeschool is certainly a factor - I'm not sure how much yet.

The issue in Mississippi is the people staying here aren't having babies.

 

[HomeBoyDawg]

It's starting!

 

[dudehead]

Would it be fair for me to assume that for a state like MS the decline is due to people leaving the state, while a state like NC it would be more indicative of people choosing to do homeschool?

My mid-30s son says the MS "acts" like it doesn't want young people to stay/live there. Just put roots down in NC.

 

[615dawg]

My mid-30s son says the MS "acts" like it doesn't want young people to stay/live there. Just put roots down in NC.

My oldest daughter has Charleston on her mind.

 

[aTotal360]

My oldest daughter has Charleston on her mind.

Tallahatchie County is wild...

 

[BTCMoonBoy]

Is this due to illegals leaving?

 

[mstateglfr]

Is this due to illegals leaving?

Yep, the enrollment cliff exists because illegals are leaving.
Nailed it.**

 

[TroyMcClure2025]

Homeschool is certainly a factor - I'm not sure how much yet.

The issue in Mississippi is the people staying here aren't having babies.

 

[BoDawg.sixpack]

Utah is the only state in the country that is experiencing fertility rates above replacement levels. Them Mormons don't believe in contraceptives.

 

[greenbean.sixpack]

Community Colleges certainly need to be revamped. Holmes has a campus in Ridgeland and Hinds has a campus 20 miles away in Purl. Makes zero sense for these to be so close and serve the same population. Having so many CCs wasting money on football (in the poorest state in the nation) is moronic.

 

[OG Goat Holder]

Community Colleges certainly need to be revamped. Holmes has a campus in Ridgeland and Hinds has a campus 20 miles away in Purl. Makes zero sense for these to be so close and serve the same population. Having so many CCs wasting money on football (in the poorest state in the nation) is moronic.

Why? If people are enrolled in both, what’s the issue?

 

[40 acres and a mule]

Utah is the only state in the country that is experiencing fertility rates above replacement levels. Them Mormons don't believe in contraceptives.

Don't believe in just one wife either. My tom cat makes lots of kittens.

 

[3-2 Dawg]

Oof not good from a national perspective. Tough look for the future of social security benefits

 

[TrueMaroonGrind]

If this excludes home school that is certainly a factor along with birth rates lowering. I know quite a few families choosing to home school.

 

[greenbean.sixpack]

Why? If people are enrolled in both, what’s the issue?

paying separate administrators, support staff, etc. Not to mention upkeep on different facilities.

 

[Called3rdstrikedawg]

Interesting for sure since mid-decade estimates suggests Mississippi’s population has increased in the past 5 years. Hmmmm.

 

[Scottfield1]

Interesting for sure since mid-decade estimates suggests Mississippi’s population has increased in the past 5 years. Hmmmm.

The coast is experiencing tremendous population and developmental growth. Harrison county has in excess of a billion dollars in current construction, with another billion in the pipeline along the coastal counties.

 

[Dawghouse]

Homeschool is certainly a factor - I'm not sure how much yet.

The issue in Mississippi is the people staying here aren't having babies.

The people staying are most likely beyond fertility years. Young people most likely heading for other states. My theory anyway.

I have a lot of other opinions for the National numbers but I will say I was very surprised by ms numbers as compared to regional neighbors.

 

[ezsoil]

The coast is experiencing tremendous population and developmental growth. Harrison county has in excess of a billion dollars in current construction, with another billion in the pipeline along the coastal counties.

Well in my neighborhood on the coast all my neighbors are over 60 , moved here from another state within the last 4 years ... I left MSU and moved to. Texas for a better job and to raise a family ...then moved back where my buck goes a lot further....

 

[Shmuley]

My mid-30s son says the MS "acts" like it doesn't want young people to stay/live there. Just put roots down in NC.

This is being repeated across many families and all across the state. Including my family.

I also hear consistently, “It’s too expensive to have a kid.”

 

[HailStout]

I also hear consistently, “It’s too expensive to have a kid.”

They aren’t wrong

 

[TrueMaroonGrind]

This is being repeated across many families and all across the state. Including my family.

I also hear consistently, “It’s too expensive to have a kid.”

It’s outrageous how expensive it is to have a kid nowadays. Just between hospitals bills and daycare you will spend $50k per kid before they get to school.

 

[OG Goat Holder]

paying separate administrators, support staff, etc. Not to mention upkeep on different facilities.

But......they are both proven to be.......needed.

This idea that we need to fire everybody and consolidate everything is kinda nonsense. I simply do not understand why Mississippians are so gung ho on having less educational opportunities. That is money being spent in the state.

It's small minded.

 

[OG Goat Holder]

The coast is experiencing tremendous population and developmental growth. Harrison county has in excess of a billion dollars in current construction, with another billion in the pipeline along the coastal counties.

Camille - 36 years - Katrina - 36 years - 2041

Enjoy the next 15 years because it's coming again, and usually when you don't expect it. It will always be a limiting factor.

 

[OG Goat Holder]

This is being repeated across many families and all across the state. Including my family.

I also hear consistently, “It’s too expensive to have a kid.”

They aren’t wrong

It’s outrageous how expensive it is to have a kid nowadays. Just between hospitals bills and daycare you will spend $50k per kid before they get to school.

This is a common theme of the middle class.

Meanwhile the super rich and the super poors are out there spitting out babies like crazy.

Then you figure the poor outnumber the rich by an incredible rate. And we wonder why we are getting the election results we are getting.

I don't have the answer to it.

 

[615dawg]

It’s outrageous how expensive it is to have a kid nowadays. Just between hospitals bills and daycare you will spend $50k per kid before they get to school.

While I think this is hyperbole, headlines like this do not help the birth rate.

Raising a child now costs over $300,000 in the U.S., study finds. See how your state compares.

Raising a child through age 18 is most expensive in Hawaii, where a family would spend an estimated $412,661 in 2026, LendingTree found.

www.cbsnews.com

 

[mstateglfr]

They aren’t wrong

It’s outrageous how expensive it is to have a kid nowadays. Just between hospitals bills and daycare you will spend $50k per kid before they get to school.

Spring 2004, my now wife and I had to fly home from our colleges to attend a weekend Pre-Cana retreat which was a requirement to get married at the church my Mother-in-Law was crying over(literally). Another weekend, we had to attend a multi-day Natural Family Planning workshop.

The Family Planning workshop was run by 3 women in their 30s and they proudly listed how many children they each had when giving introductions. It just kept going up! 'I have 5 blessed babies!' 'We currently have 6 and with a 7th bundle of Heaven on the way!' 'We have 8 miracles with each giving us more joy than the last!'
The shark was jumped during the first session which was called something like 'children arent as expensive as society tells you'.
The women laid out the financials that 'proved' having more kids really isnt much more expensive. Basically, after the first, the rest really dont cost much because you already have the basics and 'they dont eat much or do much'.

The two of us were 17ing baffled. It was absolutely insane. We were 22 and 23 with no life experience, but knew that shit was a total lie. That insane workshop is still occasionally referenced when one of us hears about the cost of a co-worker's daycare or when we see some frazzled mom pushing 2 carts in Costco that are filled with 180 eggs, 4 different sized jumbo boxes of diapers, 90 rolls of toilet paper, 4 jumbo laundry detergents, etc etc.


I cant imagine starting out now with the inflation adjusted household income we started alongside current daycare and child costs.

 

[mcdawg22]

This is a common theme of the middle class.

Meanwhile the super rich and the super poors are out there spitting out babies like crazy.

Then you figure the poor outnumber the rich by an incredible rate. And we wonder why we are getting the election results we are getting.

I don't have the answer to it.

Mike Judge made a documentary about it.

 

[Leeshouldveflanked]

You got a map by county? I have a feeling most of the counties will be in Bennie Thompson’s district. They keep expanding his because of people leaving it.

 

[Podgy]

Women all over the world want fewer kids (Africa is still an exception although birth rates are declining somewhat there too). Some men need to up their game and show women they're husband and father material. But uneducated and undereducated women don't appear to have high standards.

 

[aspendawg]

Current daycare cost in Houston, TX (5 miles from downtown in the Heights area) =$1500.00 per month.