Freshman Led Teams Just Aren’t Winning The Titles Anymore

*Fox2Monk*

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Jun 10, 2009
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It's a fool's errand to think you'll discover the formula for the perfect team based on a handful of games in a single-elimination tournament. People want to take this season, dominated with freshman success, and want to dismiss it based on a game here or there. If anything, this season proved that top freshmen should be the strategy.

"But Michigan beat Arizona!" Right but how many upperclassmen-laden teams did Arizona's freshmen dismantle along the way? If ONE single games goes different in 2014 (UK vs. UConn), the entire narrative is shot when a five freshmen team wins it all.

We've had VERY few teams loaded with elite freshmen throughout the years, and most of them made the Final Four!
Which we should have won that game. Cal was distracted, we came out flat and never recovered.
 

*Fox2Monk*

Heisman
Jun 10, 2009
44,706
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Correct. All 26 mother effing losses in 2 yrs. You don’t get to Cherry pick the good and ignore the bad. Dude has lost 26 GAMES IN TWO YEARS. Got effing tubo’d in a S16 and R32 game and there are still rubes on here that will defend him. And why? Great coaching history? Negative. Showing signs of improvement? Nada. Because he was some bit/insignificant piece (way down the list given your previous subjective stance) of a title team that would’ve rolled without him. Bingo! Rubes.
We have been turbo clocked a number of times here. The Gonzaga game, Iowa State, Ohio State, Providence, Alabama, I can go on. We have had some absolute beatdowns, and the amount of times we were down 10,12,14 points in the first-half under Pope is ridiculous as well. Shows how badly prepared we always are.
 

*Fox2Monk*

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Who was it that hit the miracle shot against Duke to send Uconn to the F4? And hasn’t he also been one if their leaders all year?

Wasn't Illinois led by a freshman?

Wasn’t Zona also led my Freshman?

And Michigan also has a freshman who plays a ton.

I would say highly ranked freshman are still contributing or leading teams pretty far.
They sure do and anyone who thinks having legit NBA talent is a bad thing is crazy. Give me the best talent every time. They will win more times than they will play a bad game. The tourney is so random and any player or team can have a bad night.
 
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*Fox2Monk*

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UConn wouldn’t even be here if it wasn’t for Mullins, a freshman. Koa Peat was one of Zona’s top players all year.

To me it’s less about class and more about talent. You need talented players and coaches. That's it. With Cal we always had talented players but a mediocre coach. Now we have mediocre everything.
So was Burries. He had a terrible game, but he was great all year.
 
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Johnson was very highly thought of, Mara was ranked 50th best transfer so they obviously knew he could be great. McKinney was a fantastic freshman pickup. Burnett was a surprise but they obviously scout guys who fit their style very well.
If I posted this same post back in December, you’d have jumped all over me. All of it is true. That’s always been the point. Fit over raw talent. All of those elite freshman this year and the only freshman left now are fourth or worse in terms of focus and shot volume on their teams. That isn’t to say the freshman aren’t good or didn’t help. Mullins, McKinney and Reibe are all varying degrees of good players, but fit matters, experience matters. Michigan actually has a lot of talent, but they have a lot of fit and purpose to every roster piece. Same for UConn. I got ridiculed all season over Dybantsa, Peterson, Peat, Boozer etc etc etc and you know that you, specifically cried over the freshmen all year. You were incorrect and rather than acknowledging it you’re just using the same language now that I was using back when you were ridiculing my posts. Are you just going to say you were wrong about freshman led teams this season or not?
 

*Fox2Monk*

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If I posted this same post back in December, you’d have jumped all over me. All of it is true. That’s always been the point. Fit over raw talent. All of those elite freshman this year and the only freshman left now are fourth or worse in terms of focus and shot volume on their teams. That isn’t to say the freshman aren’t good or didn’t help. Mullins, McKinney and Reibe are all varying degrees of good players, but fit matters, experience matters. Michigan actually has a lot of talent, but they have a lot of fit and purpose to every roster piece. Same for UConn. I got ridiculed all season over Dybantsa, Peterson, Peat, Boozer etc etc etc and you know that you, specifically cried over the freshmen all year. You were incorrect and rather than acknowledging it you’re just using the same language now that I was using back when you were ridiculing my posts. Are you just going to say you were wrong about freshman led teams this season or not?
No I wouldn’t have, I’m not wrong about recruiting NBA freshman either. One of the best ones just played in the final four. You obviously have to have a variety of factors to win.

But let’s say Duke was able to recruit Boozer, Dybantsa, McKinney, Koa Pete, and Acuff. You think they wouldn’t steam roll through the tournament and beat anyone? They could obviously have one bad night and go home, but it’s ridiculous to argue that you can’t assemble enough NBA talent to win a title. it’s basically impossible to do these days, but it is still the best bet to recruit the most talent that you can.

The point I am making and always had is that it’s dumb to turn away or not recruit a player of Stokes caliber. Recruit 2-3 of the best possible freshman, surround them with your best 3-4 returnees, and fill in the rest with studs and role players from the portal.
 
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No I wouldn’t have, I’m not wrong about recruiting NBA freshman either. One of the best ones just played in the final four. You obviously have to have a variety of factors to win.

But let’s say Duke was able to recruit Boozer, Dybantsa, McKinney, Koa Pete, and Acuff. You think they wouldn’t steam roll through the tournament and beat anyone? They could obviously have one bad night and go home, but it’s ridiculous to argue that you can’t assemble enough NBA talent to win a title. it’s basically impossible to do these days, but it is still the best bet to recruit the most talent that you can.

The point I am making and always had is that it’s dumb to turn away or not recruit a player of Stokes caliber. Recruit 2-3 of the best possible freshman, surround them with your best 3-4 returnees, and fill in the rest with studs and role players from the portal.
Knew it. It was ok to make fun of me all year and then not even admit you were wrong.

Btw everyone knows NBA talent is helpful for championship teams. That wasn’t even the conversation.

Lost respect for you here. Too much pride to admit you banged the wrong gong literally all year. You know how our conversations have went but whatever. I don’t care anymore.
 
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*Fox2Monk*

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Knew it. It was ok to make fun of me all year and then not even admit you were wrong.

Btw everyone knows NBA talent is helpful for championship teams. That wasn’t even the conversation.

Lost respect for you here. Too much pride to admit you banged the wrong gong literally all year. You know how our conversations have went but whatever. I don’t care anymore.
How did I make fun of you? Apparently you care a lot. You are waiting to make some kinda point for whatever reason right now. I didn’t message you. I don’t understand why when Zona just played in a final 4, but cool. One stupid coaching error, ridiculous pass, and fairly lucky shot were all that kept two freshman led or at least freshman who contributed a ton to having 2 teams in this final 4.
 
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How did I make fun of you? Apparently you care a lot. You are waiting to make some kinda point for whatever reason right now. I didn’t message you. I don’t understand why when Zona just played in a final 4, but cool. One stupid coaching error, ridiculous pass, and fairly lucky shot were all that kept two freshman led or at least freshman who contributed a ton to having 2 teams in this final 4.
Whatever man. 👍
 

Phil_The_Music2

Heisman
Nov 29, 2010
3,194
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You don’t change out a coach who wins an average of over 30 games a season, who makes an average of an E8 or FF, and who has had back to back National Players of the Year, I don’t care how long he goes without winning a championship!

Forget he essentially hand picks any player of his choosing, and learned the ropes from one of the greatest to ever coach the game!

Otherwise, you might be on to something 👍🏼
If you say so man. Maybe you would be reasonable. If so, good on ya. But I know how this fan base is. There's a ton that think championships are the only measure of success. If that's not you, then my post wasn't meant for you.
 

Anon1768287303

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Jan 13, 2026
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Sure, but at the same time Kentucky -- and their amazing experience and their high motor, perfectly analytically constructed roster from the wizard of mathematics itself -- is winning even less than the freshmen teams
I figure it could be because the portal guys we got while decent players were not "top" portal guys, but second and third last minute options just to have a team.
 
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UKBB4Ever

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I know. And that’s the frustrating part. If people dial back the hyperbole you can have a real conversation that has meaningful distinction to it.

Example, I saw a guy post today that Pope’s two years at Kentucky were by far worse than Gillispie. Such a thing is just foolish to say and anyone saying it has crazy levels of bias. I didn’t even respond and moved on. I’m trying to learn to avoid stuff like that coz there’s literally no point.
I didn’t see that. But it’s not a stretch to say that.

BCG inherited a 12 loss team that lost its top 6 scorers. And did not have an open portal and NIL to fix it.
 
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I didn’t see that. But it’s not a stretch to say that.

BCG inherited a 12 loss team that lost its top 6 scorers. And did not have an open portal and NIL to fix it.
And Pope had severe injuries. We can go back and forth about contextual matters all day. If you even think it’s close, let me know and I’ll just stop responding to you.

BCG back to back bubble teams. One missed the tournament and the other barely squeaked in as 11 seed and lost in the first round. ZERO tournament wins and his best season got an 11 seed.

Pope. THREE NCAA tournament wins in his two seasons. His bad year was 7 seed (lower middle of the pack tournament team) and his good team was a 3 seed.

There’s literally NO COMPARISON whatsoever. And you can save me the cheap talking points (12-4 SEC, Patrick Patterson and similar records) — they have the quality of wet tissue paper and fold when you turn on the light. This is not a debate you want to have and neither do I. You don’t want to debate it, because it will be one-sided. I don’t want to debate it, because it will be one-sided. Pointless.
 

Phil_The_Music2

Heisman
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They sure do and anyone who thinks having legit NBA talent is a bad thing is crazy. Give me the best talent every time. They will win more times than they will play a bad game. The tourney is so random and any player or team can have a bad night.
You're one of my favorite posters here so I'll take the time to explain where we are coming from because I think you'll actually listen. Folks like myself and Village Idiot aren't saying we shouldn't still try to get talented freshmen. We absolutely should. But what is more important is retaining players and bringing in talented portal players with experience. Junior and Senior led teams increase your odds of winning a single elimination tournament. If winning championships is indeed your goal, then that's the type of team you should strive to put together. That's not going to happen if all you ever bring in is 3-5 one and done players every year. The point we are trying to make is that our fan base looses it's collective mind because we aren't bring in top 15 players. We need good players that will stick around for awhile, and we need good juniors and seniors from the portal too. Maybe bring in 1 or 2 five star freshman. We get it, Pope's recruiting hasn't been great. But not because he doesn't have a boat load of 5 stars, because until recently, he didn't have anyone!
 
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Isn't this really just a numbers thing just like it was a decade ago?

Most teams aren't freshmen led. It stands to reason that a veteran led team would always be more likely to win a title compared to a Freshman one just based on that. How many title contenders this season were Freshman led? How many were Veteran led?

People made this same argument in 2012 when we were dominating with 1st and 2nd year guys. People always said this. And I had to sit around and think to myself "well who the heck is even trying to do it like we were"..........us. Maybe Duke? Other than that.........no.

But it's always going to be the case.

The bottom line is it doesn't matter. So long as you have the talent somewhere on the roster, you got a shot at a title. Period.
 
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You're one of my favorite posters here so I'll take the time to explain where we are coming from because I think you'll actually listen. Folks like myself and Village Idiot aren't saying we shouldn't still try to get talented freshmen. We absolutely should. But what is more important is retaining players and bringing in talented portal players with experience. Junior and Senior led teams increase your odds of winning a single elimination tournament. If winning championships is indeed your goal, then that's the type of team you should strive to put together. That's not going to happen if all you ever bring in is 3-5 one and done players every year. The point we are trying to make is that our fan base looses it's collective mind because we aren't bring in top 15 players. We need good players that will stick around for awhile, and we need good juniors and seniors from the portal too. Maybe bring in 1 or 2 five star freshman. We get it, Pope's recruiting hasn't been great. But not because he doesn't have a boat load of 5 stars, because until recently, he didn't have anyone!
If Fox is still one of your favorite posters here I have to question how much you are reading him. When I was first on the board, three of my favorite posters were Son of Saul, BlueSince92 and Fox. I thought Saul was very articulate. I liked BlueSince92, thought he was methodologically consistent and I thought Fox2Monk was probably the glue of the board. He was the fun, cool guy that would get along with everyone, even the people like DontWorryAboutIt23 that people would often mistreat in the threads. When Pope started losing the games, some of the best posters stopped having any nuance at all. Fox became so entrenched in the toxic negativity that was largely fostered by Morg and Saul that the whole board followed suit. Before long, you couldn’t tell Fox’s posts from the others. It sucks cause we already lost some of the fun posters on the board who made it enjoyable around here like nail at the foul line. The only thing we are left with is the same tired conversation all the time. It’d be nice if there could be some nuance at least. Are we all angry? Yes, even me.
 

SenseMaker_Cats

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I didn’t see that. But it’s not a stretch to say that.

BCG inherited a 12 loss team that lost its top 6 scorers. And did not have an open portal and NIL to fix it.
Lost its top 6 scorers? He inherited quite a bit including 2 all sec caliber players and Patrick Patterson. BG did end up signing him but Tubby is the guy that got him to UK. Most certainly didn’t lose its top 6 scorers.

Back in those days not having a portal was advantageous to incoming coaches.
 

*Fox2Monk*

Heisman
Jun 10, 2009
44,706
80,484
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You're one of my favorite posters here so I'll take the time to explain where we are coming from because I think you'll actually listen. Folks like myself and Village Idiot aren't saying we shouldn't still try to get talented freshmen. We absolutely should. But what is more important is retaining players and bringing in talented portal players with experience. Junior and Senior led teams increase your odds of winning a single elimination tournament. If winning championships is indeed your goal, then that's the type of team you should strive to put together. That's not going to happen if all you ever bring in is 3-5 one and done players every year. The point we are trying to make is that our fan base looses it's collective mind because we aren't bring in top 15 players. We need good players that will stick around for awhile, and we need good juniors and seniors from the portal too. Maybe bring in 1 or 2 five star freshman. We get it, Pope's recruiting hasn't been great. But not because he doesn't have a boat load of 5 stars, because until recently, he didn't have anyone!
Of course I agree with that. The problem is he isn’t recruiting any elite freshman or keeping around anyone who has contributed much either. He needs to get way better at getting guys who have 2 years at least left of eligibility, contribute, and stay as well. He missed on a lot last year. I think it’s crucial we keep MM, Chandler, Jelly, and Kam at least.
 

*Fox2Monk*

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If Fox is still one of your favorite posters here I have to question how much you are reading him. When I was first on the board, three of my favorite posters were Son of Saul, BlueSince92 and Fox. I thought Saul was very articulate. I liked BlueSince92, thought he was methodologically consistent and I thought Fox2Monk was probably the glue of the board. He was the fun, cool guy that would get along with everyone, even the people like DontWorryAboutIt23 that people would often mistreat in the threads. When Pope started losing the games, some of the best posters stopped having any nuance at all. Fox became so entrenched in the toxic negativity that was largely fostered by Morg and Saul that the whole board followed suit. Before long, you couldn’t tell Fox’s posts from the others. It sucks cause we already lost some of the fun posters on the board who made it enjoyable around here like nail at the foul line. The only thing we are left with is the same tired conversation all the time. It’d be nice if there could be some nuance at least. Are we all angry? Yes, even me.
I’m not going to sit here and act like everything is fine and dandy. We just want something to be happy about around the program. Not much is going right. I will be happy with wins, I will give Pope credit when he does good things. I just haven’t seen much lately to have much hope for the future.
 
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I’m not going to sit here and act like everything is fine and dandy. We just want something to be happy about around the program. Not much is going right. I will be happy with wins, I will give Pope credit when he does good things. I just haven’t seen much lately to have much hope for the future.
Nobody is telling anyone to dance and be merry. Everyone can see the year we’ve had, dude. I’m saying you went from being one of the kindest, coolest and funnest posters on the board to a one-note poster. I can’t tell where you start and Saul/Morg end. You have lost all nuance.
 

Catlogic1552

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Who was it that hit the miracle shot against Duke to send Uconn to the F4? And hasn’t he also been one if their leaders all year?

Wasn't Illinois led by a freshman?

Wasn’t Zona also led my Freshman?

And Michigan also has a freshman who plays a ton.

I would say highly ranked freshman are still contributing or leading teams pretty far.
Good point. When debating the contributing effectiveness of freshman, you have to consider there are different levels of freshman talent. So it’s impossible to come to any concrete conclusion. For my money, I’ll take the top of the freshman talent pool all day long.
 
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Good point. When debating the contributing effectiveness of freshman, you have to consider there are different levels of freshman talent. So it’s impossible to come to any concrete conclusion. For my money, I’ll take the top of the freshman talent pool all day long.
 

ZaytovenCat

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What a moronic post. UConn doesn’t even make the final four without a freshman. Specifically one Pope basically turned down to pick bum over.

It takes both freshmen and transfers to win. UConn has won with a clear formula. 1-2 highly talented freshmen, 2-4 returnees and 2-3 real good transfers.

Problem is Pope can’t get either one of talented freshmen or good transfers.
 
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What a moronic post. UConn doesn’t even make the final four without a freshman. Specifically one Pope basically turned down to pick bum over.
This part is true. Freshman can be really helpful. No one argues otherwise.

It takes both freshmen and transfers to win.
Win what? Titles? Plenty of teams won without either freshman or transfers in the mix…Florida started a couple transfers and a few non-freshman returners just a year ago. Kansas won it in 2022 with no starting freshman. So no it doesn’t “take both freshman and transfers” to win a damn thing. Would you like to have one? Sure. Just say “I like freshman.”

Problem is Pope can’t get either one of talented freshmen or good transfers.
I’m not going to have the 1,000,000th recruiting debate coz most of y’all don’t want to discuss measurables there. Besides my post wasn’t about Pope, so much a general philosophy about CBB.
 
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20MRoster

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What a moronic post. UConn doesn’t even make the final four without a freshman. Specifically one Pope basically turned down to pick bum over.

It takes both freshmen and transfers to win. UConn has won with a clear formula. 1-2 highly talented freshmen, 2-4 returnees and 2-3 real good transfers.

Problem is Pope can’t get either one of talented freshmen or good transfers.
I don't get why this is so difficult for people to see. My guess is they do see it very clearly, they just, for reasons, keep clinging desperately to something they want in their heart to happen.

Reminds me of the Wire -- "you want it to be one way, but it's the other way".
 

Tim0808

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Sure, but at the same time Kentucky -- and their amazing experience and their high motor, perfectly analytically constructed roster from the wizard of mathematics itself -- is winning even less than the freshmen teams
If anyone used Pope's results with the Portal, the Portal would not be a thing. Everyone would be playing freshman.
 
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I don't get why this is so difficult for people to see. My guess is they do see it very clearly, they just, for reasons, keep clinging desperately to something they want in their heart to happen.

Reminds me of the Wire -- "you want it to be one way, but it's the other way".
I see it the same way but from the opposite point of view. I think some of you want “elite freshman” to be necessary. You simply want it to be true. Facts don’t support it being a necessity whatsoever.
 

FLBBNFAN

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I see it the same way but from the opposite point of view. I think some of you want “elite freshman” to be necessary. You simply want it to be true. Facts don’t support it being a necessity whatsoever.
I have a question for you. Has there been a big outcry from folks on this board to go back to the old Cal system of having all freshmen and OAD guys ?

I haven't seen that but rather people recognize we need to at least get a couple of
5* star high school recruits to blend with returning players and portal additions.

I think the argument (thread) you started doesn't exist and the overwhelming majority doesn't want that old system back . Seems like that is the fallback position to deflect from 26 losses in 2 years along with the number of the losses being blowouts.

Honestly if Pope wasn't an alumni and captain of a great team would you really be bending over backwards to defend him? My guess is no just like BCG. No, Pope doesn't have a drinking issue but before we went on our mini run in SEC conference play we saw a coach mentally unraveling to deal with the pressure. We all saw it and personally I have no desire to watch a person unravel before my eyes which will happen if we have another 14 loss season.

At the end of the day the argument is a mute point because our coach cant recruit any 5* high school kids and no elite portal target will come here to play for him.

If Im wrong I will be ecstatic and say I was wrong but his coaching/recruiting history says different.
 
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I haven't seen that but rather people recognize we NEED to at least get a couple of
5* star high school recruits to blend with returning players and portal additions.
NEED….that is the word.

This is actually the point I’m pushing back on. I don’t believe freshmen are the devil. I believe we think getting 5 star high school freshman is what determines championships. It isn’t even a debate. They don’t and haven’t for a long time. Stephon Castle (#10 ranked in 247Sports Composite) is the only top 10 high school player that started as a freshman on a national championship team in ten years…. and he was the FIFTH leading scorer on his team. So yes, I’m pushing back on the NECESSITY argument. I don’t think five stars or freshmen are bad..I just think fit matters far more.
 

FLBBNFAN

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NEED….that is the word.

This is actually the point I’m pushing back on. I don’t believe freshmen are the devil. I believe we think getting 5 star high school freshman is what determines championships. It isn’t even a debate. They don’t and haven’t for a long time. Stephon Castle (#10 ranked in 247Sports Composite) is the only top 10 high school player that started as a freshman on a national championship team in ten years…. and he was the FIFTH leading scorer on his team. So yes, I’m pushing back on the NECESSITY argument. I don’t think five stars or freshmen are bad..I just think fit matters far more.
I would say if we measure overall success in the last 26 years that most teams I would think have some freshmen as part of their rotation. I am not using a NC as the model for success because winning a natty is not the norm for any school.

I would look at winning your conference for the regular season, conference tourney championship, EE etc. I bet there are/were freshman who contributed to that success .
 
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