Freshman Led Teams Just Aren’t Winning The Titles Anymore

Jul 30, 2024
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ironically, michigan has 4 players that are transfers. led by having 3 big men in mara, johnson, and yaxel. maybe we should ditch moreno if you want to follow the trend......
If Michigan wins the title, it actually could be the dawn of a new trend. I don’t know yet. Could be but it’s a small sample size. On the other hand, eleven straight years of championship teams that are non-freshman led is significant. It makes me worry about the Stokes deal next year if I’m honest.
 

cornbreadnmilk

All-Conference
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If Michigan wins the title, it actually could be the dawn of a new trend. I don’t know yet. Could be but it’s a small sample size. On the other hand, eleven straight years of championship teams that are non-freshman led is significant. It makes me worry about the Stokes deal next year if I’m honest.
Why? He's not coming here anyway.
 
Jul 30, 2024
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You say that until we go 4 or 5 seasons without a natty and then you'd be wanting a change.
Yep just like the “man, at this point I’d be glad just to get to the second weekend.” Then, after we got to the second weekend, the same people declared that year “bad” (even though it was better than the statistical average) and will even get angry if you mention the Sweet 16. They’ll say “hang a banner”. People are justifiably angry but let it override reason.
 
Jul 30, 2024
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Sure, but at the same time Kentucky -- and their amazing experience and their high motor, perfectly analytically constructed roster from the wizard of mathematics itself -- is winning even less than the freshmen teams
This is false and been debunked so many times. Kentucky had not only poor roster continuity but also poor minutes continuity. To be fair, Michigan doesn’t have strong roster continuity but theirs is about 7 percentage points higher than ours and kept their heavy rotation together. Also, they returned two starter level guys from last year. We returned Oweh. Garrison was a mid level rotation guy.

Handle the data honestly. You can hate Pope and debunk the Popeists while doing so.
 

Phil_The_Music2

Heisman
Nov 29, 2010
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Yep just like the “man, at this point I’d be glad just to get to the second weekend.” Then, after we got to the second weekend, the same people declared that year “bad” (even though it was better than the statistical average) and will even get angry if you mention the Sweet 16. They’ll say “hang a banner”. People are justifiably angry but let it override reason.
I also remember people (and I was one of them admittedly) saying they would take literally ANYONE over Cal. Some of those same people threw a fit when Pope was hired and never did give him a chance. My point being, people say crazy crap on here all the time they don't honestly mean.
 

LineSkiCat14

Heisman
Aug 5, 2015
38,813
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The thing is, its an entirely new era. Its not like Michigan or Illinois are winning with home grown talent. They are going to the portal or to Europe to build their teams through proven players.

So of course freshman cant win in this era.. but not because they arent good, but because the top teams are just a farm league for the best 21-22 year olds.
 
Jul 30, 2024
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I also remember people (and I was one of them admittedly) saying they would take literally ANYONE over Cal. Some of those same people threw a fit when Pope was hired and never did give him a chance. My point being, people say crazy crap on here all the time they don't honestly mean.
I know. And that’s the frustrating part. If people dial back the hyperbole you can have a real conversation that has meaningful distinction to it.

Example, I saw a guy post today that Pope’s two years at Kentucky were by far worse than Gillispie. Such a thing is just foolish to say and anyone saying it has crazy levels of bias. I didn’t even respond and moved on. I’m trying to learn to avoid stuff like that coz there’s literally no point.
 

Phil_The_Music2

Heisman
Nov 29, 2010
3,194
12,906
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Sure, but at the same time Kentucky -- and their amazing experience and their high motor, perfectly analytically constructed roster from the wizard of mathematics itself -- is winning even less than the freshmen teams
This isn't remotely true, but for the sake of argument, let's say it is. Just because Kentucky followed the model and didn't win doesn't mean the model is flawed. Lots of teams follow the model and don't win because only one team can. What matters is that the team that wins virtually always follows it, and teams who don't virtually never win it all.
 
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Greatest freshman class of all time and yet the national championship game is going to be between two veteran led teams.

Michigan’s fourth leading scorer is a freshman.
UConn’s fifth and sixth leading scorers are freshman.

I wonder why things have changed so much. What do you think caused it?
Players like Kenneth Faried don’t stay at schools like Morehead anymore because they can transfer and be immediately eligible. To me that is the biggest change.
 

Smeegs

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Not sure what the thread title means by “anymore”, because there NEVER was a sustained period where “freshmen led” teams won titles.

Even during the one and done era …when hot shot freshmen were all the rage …there were only two seasons (2012 and 15) when the champ relied significantly on freshmen. The teams with the top one and dones usually crashed and burned in the tournament.
 

BigRafi

Freshman
Nov 13, 2025
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Greatest freshman class of all time and yet the national championship game is going to be between two veteran led teams.

Michigan’s fourth leading scorer is a freshman.
UConn’s fifth and sixth leading scorers are freshman.

I wonder why things have changed so much. What do you think caused it?
What freshman dominated teams ever won?
 

Phil_The_Music2

Heisman
Nov 29, 2010
3,194
12,906
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I know. And that’s the frustrating part. If people dial back the hyperbole you can have a real conversation that has meaningful distinction to it.

Example, I saw a guy post today that Pope’s two years at Kentucky were by far worse than Gillispie. Such a thing is just foolish to say and anyone saying it has crazy levels of bias. I didn’t even respond and moved on. I’m trying to learn to avoid stuff like that coz there’s literally no point.
I've seen posts like that too. It's just people who lack emotional self control. They know good and well it's not true but that's the only way they know how to vent. I'm glad you are passing them by. I'm working on that too.
 
Jul 30, 2024
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Not sure what the thread title means by “anymore”, because there NEVER was a sustained period where “freshmen led” teams won titles.

Even during the one and done era …when hot shot freshmen were all the rage …there were only two seasons (2012 and 15) when the champ relied significantly on freshmen. The teams with the top one and dones usually crashed and burned in the tournament.
Also 2003.

2003, 2012, 2015

That’s three titles within a twelve year span. I’d say 25% of the titles in that era is pretty significant. Crazy that those days might as well be 50 years ago. The portal era is here and not slowing down.
 

Smeegs

All-Conference
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What freshman dominated teams ever won?
Three come to mind. 2012 Kentucky (AD, MKG, Teague), 2015 Duke (Okafor, Winslow, Jones) and 03 Syracuse (Carmelo Anthony and Gerry McNamara).

And that’s about it. Other than those very rare exceptions, history shows that experience matters big in March.
 

UKBB4Ever

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Jul 3, 2025
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This is false and been debunked so many times. Kentucky had not only poor roster continuity but also poor minutes continuity. To be fair, Michigan doesn’t have strong roster continuity but theirs is about 7 percentage points higher than ours and kept their heavy rotation together. Also, they returned two starter level guys from last year. We returned Oweh. Garrison was a mid level rotation guy.

Handle the data honestly. You can hate Pope and debunk the Popeists while doing so.
You are just trying way too hard to deflect.

UK was not freshman led. We had a talented, experienced roster that was preseason top 10 and most thought we were being disrespected at that.

While not being freshman led we simply had no leadership.

No offensive identity. No defensive identity. No player development. Poor substitutions. Players not in shape. And we didn’t play hard all the time.

We did not have a player problem. We have a coaching problem.

We only beat 3 teams all season that could be reasonably argued had more talent that us. And one of them we beat twice.

Of our 14 losses I can only think of 4 teams with clearly more talent. One of them beat us 3 times.

We don’t have a head coach. We have a head cheerleader.
 
Jul 30, 2024
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You are just trying way too hard to deflect.

UK was not freshman led. We had a talented, experienced roster that was preseason top 10 and most thought we were being disrespected at that.

While not being freshman led we simply had no leadership.

No offensive identity. No defensive identity. No player development. Poor substitutions. Players not in shape. And we didn’t play hard all the time.

We did not have a player problem. We have a coaching problem.

We only beat 3 teams all season that could be reasonably argued had more talent that us. And one of them we beat twice.

Of our 14 losses I can only think of 4 teams with clearly more talent. One of them beat us 3 times.

We don’t have a head coach. We have a head cheerleader
90% of what you just typed debunks literally nothing I said. Kentucky had low roster continuity from the ‘25 to ‘26 season. Actual fact. Far lower than the two teams playing for the title. How about you go debunk that instead of something I didn’t say? If you need help, I’ll tell you how to calculate it.
 

Eagles_Ball_69

All-American
Dec 19, 2003
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Michigan could replace Trey McKinney with just about any decent role player. He isn’t the engine making them run. Is it nice to have him? Sure. “Need” him? Not buying that. We watching the same team?
You state an objective viewpoint and then use the subjective for evidence. Kinda skewed.