Worse case scenario for Mississippi State football

MagicDawg

Senior
Nov 11, 2010
908
764
93
If I had to guess right now, I'd say our worst case is 0-12.
I've been a fan for way too long to assume anything.
I've watched us lose to many a team that we "couldn't" lose to.
But that's just a guess.
With the right personnel, we could probably find a way to move into the negative numbers.
 

Drebin

Heisman
Aug 22, 2012
21,681
25,354
113
I’m sure you were one of the first to step and give to NIL right?
Templeton I am not. But unlike you and 99% of the posters on this board I have been in seal I have been to practices and scrimmages. We are a better team than we were in 25
More stuff you say every year.

I've been to seal. I've seen the inside stuff. I give to NIL. I give to the BC. Do I count?
 

The Peeper

Heisman
Feb 26, 2008
15,571
10,802
113
Something is wrong with the football hiring process. Arnett was A+ at booster access and F at coaching. Lebby is A+ at booster access and F at coaching.

Leach was A+ at coaching but F at booster access.

Need a strong AD who emphasizes good, experienced coaching and keeps the good ol boys off the practice field.

Who gives a rats arse about "booster access"? I couldn't care less if I ever saw a head coach on the street and would like it even better if I never had to listen to their "coach speak" interviews and post game excuses. Just win by damn!
 

The Peeper

Heisman
Feb 26, 2008
15,571
10,802
113
world of warcraft legion GIF

The exact same thing I thought about when I saw that comment yesterday.................
 
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leeinator

All-Conference
Feb 24, 2014
2,215
1,632
113
CBS Sportsline - 2026 SEC win totals, odds, picks. Talty has State winning 5 games in 2026 - ULM, Minn, Mizzou, Vandy and Tenn Tech. That doubles our SEC win total under Lebby, but isn't good enough to automatically qualify for a bowl.

That's the worst case scenario for me - another year of improvement for Lebby, but not enough to move the needle. Especially if K1 plays well, it would be VERY EASY for Selmon to justify giving Lebby another year. Meanwhile, you have 5 new coaches to the SEC. One or two of them will hit big this season, only adding to the misery of the Jeff Lebby rebuild.

View attachment 1231201
I don't think we beat Minnesota, and may not beat Mizzou and/or Vandy.
 
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dickiedawg

All-Conference
Feb 22, 2008
4,278
1,095
113
CBS Sportsline - 2026 SEC win totals, odds, picks. Talty has State winning 5 games in 2026 - ULM, Minn, Mizzou, Vandy and Tenn Tech. That doubles our SEC win total under Lebby, but isn't good enough to automatically qualify for a bowl.

That's the worst case scenario for me - another year of improvement for Lebby, but not enough to move the needle. Especially if K1 plays well, it would be VERY EASY for Selmon to justify giving Lebby another year. Meanwhile, you have 5 new coaches to the SEC. One or two of them will hit big this season, only adding to the misery of the Jeff Lebby rebuild.

View attachment 1231201
We can’t retain Lebby after another losing season.
 

Wesson Bulldog

All-Conference
Nov 3, 2015
1,616
1,922
113
I don't think we beat any of the three. Or even come close.
We can be a better football team in 2026 and still win only 2-3 games. I am doubting that we are going to be ANY better, so I will be pleasantly surprised if we are and win 4-6 games.
 
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Drebin

Heisman
Aug 22, 2012
21,681
25,354
113
We can be a better football team in 2026 and still win only 2-3 games. I am doubting that we are going to be ANY better, so I will be pleasantly surprised if we are and win 4-6 games.
This is why I hate making proclamations on coaching retention based on win totals. We won five last year but were grossly incompetent at times. And nothing we picked up in the portal is going to solve for that. Arnett will help a little on D, but his style of D and Lebby's style of O are not complimentary, and that's going to show up. So I hate this "he wins six and he will be back" stuff. We fired Jomo after a six win season. If we continue to have the glaring incompetency showing up at inopportune times next year, I don't care how many games we win - he's gotta go. If we were competent and well coached and were only winning three because we were out-talented, that's a different discussion.
 

patdog

Heisman
May 28, 2007
57,099
26,710
113
This is why I hate making proclamations on coaching retention based on win totals. We won five last year but were grossly incompetent at times. And nothing we picked up in the portal is going to solve for that. Arnett will help a little on D, but his style of D and Lebby's style of O are not complimentary, and that's going to show up. So I hate this "he wins six and he will be back" stuff. We fired Jomo after a six win season. If we continue to have the glaring incompetency showing up at inopportune times next year, I don't care how many games we win - he's gotta go. If we were competent and well coached and were only winning three because we were out-talented, that's a different discussion.
Mostly agree. We won 5 games, but we weren't a 5-win caliber team. But for 2026 if we play well and only win 3 games (or 4 or maybe even 5) because we were out-talented, he's still got to go. He's had 3 years to bring in the talent and if we're still out-talented he has to be fired.
 

Drebin

Heisman
Aug 22, 2012
21,681
25,354
113
Mostly agree. We won 5 games, but we weren't a 5-win caliber team. But for 2026 if we play well and only win 3 games (or 4 or maybe even 5) because we were out-talented, he's still got to go. He's had 3 years to bring in the talent and if we're still out-talented he has to be fired.
Which is why I said "different discussion." I wouldn't want to bring him back either because he's had three years to do what others have done in shorter times. But it's a different discussion - we aren't talking about on field incompetence anymore. I'm not worried about having to have that discussion though - that's not the kind of thing (competency) that a coach is suddenly going to correct in one year.
 
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She Mate Me

Heisman
Dec 7, 2008
12,829
11,011
113
What's just maddening is those of us who've watched enough of these scenarios already know this is not going to work with Lebby.

And waiting for the "right" moment, from the standpoint of all the powers that be at MSU, is just a waste of time as far as the common fan is concerned.

And that's how you lose a fanbase.
 

Baddog11

All-Conference
Aug 28, 2013
3,312
2,643
113
Worst case scenario, Lebby continues to tank the program because he has no brains and a care-free, lazy attitude.
 
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golferdog

Senior
Jan 1, 2024
998
783
93
We can be a better football team in 2026 and still win only 2-3 games. I am doubting that we are going to be ANY better, so I will be pleasantly surprised if we are and win 4-6 games.
Either way, in my mind if he goes 4-8 or worse a change needs to be made. I don't think he's head coach material. They looked like the keystone cops in the bowl game with a month to prepare. I have zero confidence. Arnett would have to work a miracle, but he hasn't even been a DC for 2 years. This could be a total clown show. We will be out classed in coaching and talent in nearly every game next year.
 

Drebin

Heisman
Aug 22, 2012
21,681
25,354
113
Either way, in my mind if he goes 4-8 or worse a change needs to be made. I don't think he's head coach material. They looked like the keystone cops in the bowl game with a month to prepare. I have zero confidence. Arnett would have to work a miracle, but he hasn't even been a DC for 2 years. This could be a total clown show. We will be out classed in coaching and talent in nearly every game next year.
GIF by Giphy QA
 

QuaoarsKing

All-Conference
Mar 11, 2008
5,954
2,612
113
So you wanna take the bet? Heck i'll give you 5.5 to 1.
Of course not. I would never, ever bet against Mississippi State, no matter the odds, because it would create a conflict of rooting interest that I never want to have.
 

paindonthurt

All-Conference
Apr 7, 2025
3,964
2,862
113
Of course not. I would never, ever bet against Mississippi State, no matter the odds, because it would create a conflict of rooting interest that I never want to have.
I bet against us all the time. And i have no problem rooting for us and hoping i lose my money!
 

QuaoarsKing

All-Conference
Mar 11, 2008
5,954
2,612
113
The beauty of this season's schedule is that we'll know by the end of September if Lebby still has a chance to turn things around. Weeks 2-4 we play Minnesota, South Carolina, and Missouri, all 3 of which undoubtedly expect to beat us but should be vulnerable.
  • If we go 3-0 in those games, we're likely going to finish 6-6 or better since all it takes is splitting the Vanderbilt and Auburn games, both at home.
  • If we go 2-1 in those games, we at least have a decent shot to get to 6-6.
  • If we go 1-2, we can go ahead and start talking informally to new coaches.
  • If we go 0-3, fire him right then.
 

Howiefeltersnstch

All-Conference
Dec 28, 2019
2,385
3,023
98
I say we just fire him now in a pre emptive firing. Go hire whoever is at UAB or Latech and reassess after his first 3 games. If 0-3 fire him and hire a new coach during our bye week. I mean why waste time ? Any coach should easily turn around a legendary program such as this very quickly. All you really need is consistency and to be intentional every time you are inside this building.
 
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