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Worse case scenario for Mississippi State football

TheBannerM

TheBannerM

All-Conference
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CBS Sportsline - 2026 SEC win totals, odds, picks. Talty has State winning 5 games in 2026 - ULM, Minn, Mizzou, Vandy and Tenn Tech. That doubles our SEC win total under Lebby, but isn't good enough to automatically qualify for a bowl.

That's the worst case scenario for me - another year of improvement for Lebby, but not enough to move the needle. Especially if K1 plays well, it would be VERY EASY for Selmon to justify giving Lebby another year. Meanwhile, you have 5 new coaches to the SEC. One or two of them will hit big this season, only adding to the misery of the Jeff Lebby rebuild.

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TheBannerM

TheBannerM

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golferdog said:
It could be worse. imo 4 is the floor and 7 is the ceiling. I think we'll win 5-6 games next year, depending on the OL and D.
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Four wins or worse and he's gone. Six or more wins, and I think we can convince ourselves that we can be in the upper half of the SEC in 2027. Five wins is the danger zone - not good enough in the NIL era for a third year coach, but just enough improvement to be stuck with Lebby for another year.
 
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PBRME

PBRME

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golferdog said:
It could be worse. imo 4 is the floor and 7 is the ceiling. I think we'll win 5-6 games next year, depending on the OL and D.
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The oline is good for 2 wins. Anything more will depend on KT’s health and the rest of the team performing miracles.
 
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Willow Grove Dawg

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I don't think we can retain him unless he wins 6 and the path to 6 is not easy to find.

Football has to be competitive for the Athletic Department to survive long-term financially. Fans just are not going to keep spending more $ for a subpar product.

Worst case is neither good enough for a Florida Bowl nor bad enough to fire Lebby.
 
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L4Dawg

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That mi
TheBannerM said:
CBS Sportsline - 2026 SEC win totals, odds, picks. Talty has State winning 5 games in 2026 - ULM, Minn, Mizzou, Vandy and Tenn Tech. That doubles our SEC win total under Lebby, but isn't good enough to automatically qualify for a bowl.

That's the worst case scenario for me - another year of improvement for Lebby, but not enough to move the needle. Especially if K1 plays well, it would be VERY EASY for Selmon to justify giving Lebby another year. Meanwhile, you have 5 new coaches to the SEC. One or two of them will hit big this season, only adding to the misery of the Jeff Lebby rebuild.

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That might be the best case, it's certainly not the worst case. I'm thinking 3-4 wins with 2 not being out of the question.
 
OG Goat Holder

OG Goat Holder

Heisman
Sep 30, 2022
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Let’s list this out, and remember I said it:

- KT is not a fit for Heavy’s offense, no matter how much we say he is. If he becomes a much improved passer, he will be Cam Newton, and would succeed in any offense. But barring that improvement which has a 1% chance of happening, offense will struggle when we simply cannot run over people, which will be most games. OL will get gassed and be hurt again all year.
- Tbro Arnett’s D is theoretically better but his D is not a good Match with Heavy’s O. They’ll get gassed.
- Heavy isn’t beating Fleck in an away game.

This all results in us sputtering and bumbling up games we should win, and maybe winning one we can’t, and ultimately going 3-9 or 4-8. Heavy will figure out eventually that he needs to slow the game down and run, but that’s not system, so again, it’ll be clunky and too little too late.

The cycle of Moo Football simply continues doing things the opposite of what would make it successful.
 
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thatsbaseball

thatsbaseball

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May 29, 2007
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TheBannerM said:
CBS Sportsline - 2026 SEC win totals, odds, picks. Talty has State winning 5 games in 2026 - ULM, Minn, Mizzou, Vandy and Tenn Tech. That doubles our SEC win total under Lebby, but isn't good enough to automatically qualify for a bowl.

That's the worst case scenario for me - another year of improvement for Lebby, but not enough to move the needle. Especially if K1 plays well, it would be VERY EASY for Selmon to justify giving Lebby another year. Meanwhile, you have 5 new coaches to the SEC. One or two of them will hit big this season, only adding to the misery of the Jeff Lebby rebuild.

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LOL "Worse case" made me laugh

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John Deaux VII

John Deaux VII

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Win 5 games, with 1 big upset that is significant to keep Lebby around for another year. That is worse than going 0-12.
 
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QuaoarsKing

QuaoarsKing

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I wish we were playing Vandy earlier. Their presumed QB is the #1 recruit in the country, and he'll probably have it figured out by November.
 
Anon2444666666

Anon2444666666

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Jun 16, 2023
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My my the wool is thicc. We haven't even had the spring game. 1 win by November. We haven't play a complete game since October of last year. C'mon guys.
 
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patdog

Heisman
May 28, 2007
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DAWGSANDSAINTS said:
We MAY beat ONE of Mizz or Vandy, highly doubt both, and I highly doubt we beat the Gophers in Minnesota even though I’m going to see it first hand.
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I agree. That Minnesota game is going to be a lot tougher game than people are thinking. They went 8-5 in a better league, have a lot of starters retuning, a much better coach, and are at home.
 
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85Bears

85Bears

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onewoof said:
Agreed. Our only chance is to go wild with KT and hope we can play decent D. Any well built team will beat us. We may finally upset a mid team if Lebby doesn't sabotage it with stupidity.
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4th and long on our own 18……pick six the other way

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patdog

Heisman
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onewoof said:
Agreed. Our only chance is to go wild with KT and hope we can play decent D. Any well built team will beat us. We may finally upset a mid team if Lebby doesn't sabotage it with stupidity.
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What are the chances KT stays healthy? He got beat up pretty good in the limited time he played last season.
 
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ababyatemydingo

ababyatemydingo

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patdog said:
What are the chances KT stays healthy? He got beat up pretty good in the limited time he played last season.
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look on the bright side of things. at least we have a 5 star from Florida, AZ State, UGA, and Sacramento State backing him up, who sued his first team for not paying his NIL ***
 
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patdog

Heisman
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ababyatemydingo said:
look on the bright side of things. at least we have a 5 star from Florida and UGA backing him up ***
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I think he’s going to be backing up the backup. I actually like the G5 guy we signed from somewhere on the east coast. Not enough that I hope he plays. But as a backup.
 
QuaoarsKing

QuaoarsKing

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paindonthurt said:
I’ll give you 5 to 1 odds on winning more than 3
$50
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I don't think we literally go 0-10 against Power Four competition either, but 5:1 is pretty bold.

We probably won't be favored in any of those 10 games. Maybe Vanderbilt if they take a big step back. Maybe South Carolina if we upset Minnesota the week before (although at that point it's moot because we'll have beaten a P4 team).
 
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TheBannerM

TheBannerM

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If the choice is between a losing season that ends with a new coach (4 wins or less) and or a losing season that prolongs the Jeff Lebby error (5 wins), I’ll take the former. The good news is this coaching carousel should be quieter than last year, so maybe we can pull a coach who has actually led a program before and won more than a handful of FBS games.
 
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TheBannerM

TheBannerM

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patdog said:
I think he’s going to be backing up the backup. I actually like the G5 guy we signed from somewhere on the east coast. Not enough that I hope he plays. But as a backup.
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Our two backup QBs have won 6 games in like 7 seasons of college combined. Another brilliant move by Training Wheels.
 
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Willow Grove Dawg

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patdog said:
I agree. That Minnesota game is going to be a lot tougher game than people are thinking. They went 8-5 in a better league, have a lot of starters retuning, a much better coach, and are at home.
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Minnesota did not even play a competitive game against a decent Big 10 team in 2025. Their best win was probably 24-6 against 7-6 Nebraska. They were destroyed by every good team they played (Ohio State 42-3, Iowa 41-3, & Oregon 42-13) . I have zero confidence that we can beat them on the road, but they were not a good football team. They just won close games the bottom of the Big Ten (Wisconsin, Michigan State, Purdue, & Rutgers)
 
OopsICroomedmypants

OopsICroomedmypants

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MSU must be most of y’all’s second team. We’ve been bad way more than we’ve been good. Hardly any team we’ve ever fielded would win 7 games with this schedule.
 
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