What Did You Expect? - NCAA Team Performance Relative to Expectations

[Wrestleknownothing]

Expectations - 2026 NCAA Tournament Viewed Through the Lens of What Could Have Been | Wrestling.Guru

Expectations are funny things. There is no universal standard for them. We can both look at the same set of facts and data about the world but develop wildl ...

wrestling.guru

Just dropped a new post analyzing team performance relative to expectations.

 

[Reslo1]

Expectations - 2026 NCAA Tournament Viewed Through the Lens of What Could Have Been | Wrestling.Guru

Expectations are funny things. There is no universal standard for them. We can both look at the same set of facts and data about the world but develop wildl ...

wrestling.guru

Just dropped a new post analyzing team performance relative to expectations.

This is great!

Only 1 very minor error in your calculations: Okie State exceeded their expectations by 38 points, not 40 (131-93).

Rutgers sending 9 wrestlers and scoring 7 points is what makes them elite.

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

This is great!

Only 1 very minor error in your calculations: Okie State exceeded their expectations by 38 points, not 40 (131-93).

Rutgers sending 9 wrestlers and scoring 7 points is what makes them elite.

Ah yes. My formula for actual and expected account for team point deductions, but for some reason the difference formula did not. Will have to fix that. Great catch. Thanks.

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

This is great!

Only 1 very minor error in your calculations: Okie State exceeded their expectations by 38 points, not 40 (131-93).

Rutgers sending 9 wrestlers and scoring 7 points is what makes them elite.

fixed. thanks again.

 

[pish69]

Outstanding work as always WKN!

 

[Dogwelder]

That’s awesome! I love the high water stuff. The best intelligence is not just being able to answer questions. It’s being able to ask good questions. Thinking to ask about the high water stuff is very intelligent!

 

[Potterlion]

Interesting topic. Obviously, when you have seven guys ranked #1, it becomes very difficult, almost impossible to exceed expectations. That's what so many are forgetting when they brag about Okie State's or Iowa's performance (not that they didn't do well).

 

[PennState1985]

Interesting topic. Obviously, when you have seven guys ranked #1, it becomes very difficult, almost impossible to exceed expectations. That's what so many are forgetting when they brag about Okie State's or Iowa's performance (not that they didn't do well).

I had the same thought. If your starting point is 160 points (only 17 points from the record), how can you expect to finish far above expectations?