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First round upsets are a thing of the past

Genediesel

Genediesel

Junior
Mar 18, 2022
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megablue said:
In the men's NCAA tournament first round (since 1985/expansion), top seeds are dominant, with No. 1 seeds winning roughly 99% of their games. Winning percentages decrease by seed: No. 2s win $\sim$93%, No. 3s $\sim$86%, and No. 4s $\sim$79%. The highest-ranked underdog seeds to historically succeed are No. 12 (approx. 35% win rate).
  • 1 Seed vs. 16 Seed: ~99% win rate (158-2 record)
  • 2 Seed vs. 15 Seed: ~93% win rate (149-11 record)
  • 3 Seed vs. 14 Seed: ~86% win rate (137-23 record)
  • 4 Seed vs. 13 Seed: ~79% win rate (127-33 record)
  • 5 Seed vs. 12 Seed: ~64% win rate (103-57 record)
  • 6 Seed vs. 11 Seed: ~61% win rate (98-62 record)
  • 7 Seed vs. 10 Seed: ~59% win rate (97-62 record)
  • 8 Seed vs. 9 Seed: ~52% win rate (83-77 record)
  • No. 12 seeds are the most dangerous lower seed, winning over 30% of their games against No. 5s.
  • No. 13 seeds hold a 20.6% winning percentage against No. 4 seeds.
  • No. 16 seeds have only won twice in 160 matchups against No. 1 seeds, resulting in a 1.25% winning percentage.
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Dang, who were those two 1 seeds that lost to the 16 seed? That team/coach/fanbase must be an absolute joke lol. Might as well shut down the program. Losers.
 
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JonathanW2

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Aug 6, 2025
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The_Answer1313_rivals said:
I don't know about this. Last season we had 1 number one seeds make a final four. And it was predictable. Those teams were clear cut above the rest.

This season we also have like five (the 1s and Houston IMO).

While I disagree with the OP in that upsets are a thing of the past, the teams at the top ARE getting better. All you have to do is look at the top teams and how their efficiency margins have risen over the course of time. They are getting better compared to the average team.

That being said, of course upsets will still happen. All it takes is one hot shooting night from 3 for any of these teams and they can spring upsets.
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Your example of 1 year is very antecdotal. That's like looking at the year #15 St. Peters made it to the E8 and say "well times have changed, and we should expect a 14/15/16 seed in the E8 every year. An N=1 tells you very little.

All it takes is one good shooting night, one bad shooting night, one game with a bunch of turnovers, etc...
 
CrimsonCats_rivals

CrimsonCats_rivals

All-Conference
Mar 22, 2022
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Genediesel said:
Dang, who were those two 1 seeds that lost to the 16 seed? That team/coach/fanbase must be an absolute joke lol. Might as well shut down the program. Losers.
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I can’t quite tell if this post is serious, but in case it is, those two instances were UMBC besting Virginia in 2018 and Fairleigh Dickinson beating Purdue in 2023.

Coincidentally, both Virginia and Purdue both were number one seeds again the next year with largely the same core group of players. Virginia won the national championship in 2019 and Purdue made the championship game in 2024 before losing to the UConn juggernaut. Just goes to show how much randomness truly exists in a single elimination format despite our tendency to build narratives about certain coaches or programs who “never win when it counts” or whatever.
 
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The_Answer1313_rivals

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May 27, 2007
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JonathanW2 said:
Your example of 1 year is very antecdotal. That's like looking at the year #15 St. Peters made it to the E8 and say "well times have changed, and we should expect a 14/15/16 seed in the E8 every year. An N=1 tells you very little.

All it takes is one good shooting night, one bad shooting night, one game with a bunch of turnovers, etc...
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Yeah no it's a one season sample obviously but NIL is still relatively new.

The teams at the top are separating more and more each year as the seasons go by compared to the avg D1 school. If you look at the efficiency margins, there seems to be more of a separation at the top. In 2014, there was two teams with EM over 30. And just barely over 30. This season there are eight. There is zero doubt over the last decade teams have separated themselves. With NIL now factored in, this will not narrow. It will get wider.

Again it's not to say upsets won't happen. It's not even to say upsets won't happen at the same rate they always have been. I'm just saying the upper tier teams are separating quite a bit. They did so last year and they are doing so again this season.
 
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KyKevin

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Dec 28, 2021
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paulcalhoun_rivals397471 said:
Boozer 14 ft's
Sienna 6 ft's

Very difficult to pull the upset when they have one guy shoot more than twice as many FT's as your entire team.
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I hate that part of the game, and it's fkn real. Duke must have some powerful people, and Boozer doesn't need the help, he can play some ball. I hope they don't get rolling, with the whistle they get.
 
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CatPride1964

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Jan 7, 2026
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champagnecat said:
With NIL and transfer portal these small schools have no chance. USF, Troy, HP, all getting dominated. SAD :(
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Dumb comment. Teams can always get hot from deep or be matchup nightmares. Duke almost lost because sienna turned on god mode from 3. Sienna could hang with any team that day.
 
champagnecat

champagnecat

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Nov 28, 2025
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Bump as what I said is still true.

one 12 over 5 upset.

THAT’S IT. No crazy upsets again this year
 
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