What SHOULD we be ranked when the new polls come out? Then, what we will actually be ranked?
- Thread starter bulldoghair
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I’d put us at 7 or 8 right now and think that’s probably where we land.
I still believe we are a Top 10 team, but you probably have to put us toward the bottom of the Top 10 until we win some big series (which I feel is coming, but others have proven a little bit more than us so far).
I still believe we are a Top 10 team, but you probably have to put us toward the bottom of the Top 10 until we win some big series (which I feel is coming, but others have proven a little bit more than us so far).
I think the RPI weighs more heavily in what really matters. I have us about here at 14 or 15- inside top 20. But I think the D1baseball poll will have us at 4 or 5. I think their poll is SEC biased
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Unless we get our bp issues fixed we're gonna lose more series than expected....
Brother you got to drop the RPI schtick this early. It does not matter on March 15th. Let’s revisit again in about 3 weeks.
I'm not sure what to make of this team. They're good enough to compete with anybody, but I'm also getting the feeling that we're gonna lose more than our fair share of close games this year due to a highly suspect bullpen. Foster, Sweeney, and Billingsley consistently get themselves into trouble, and we've got a bunch of other guys that play Jekyll and Hyde from one game to the next. Even though he's a freshman, it's also pretty disappointing that Bauer is so unreliable at this point that we can't even find an inning for him.
As long as our bats are alive, we'll be fine, but we're going to be in trouble in just about any game when we don't score 5+
As long as our bats are alive, we'll be fine, but we're going to be in trouble in just about any game when we don't score 5+
If you want to break it down team by team:
We were at 3.
#4 Georgia Tech won a series at Clemson, they’ll likely take our spot at 3.
#5 Arkansas beat us, I’m sure we’ll fall behind them.
#6 Auburn swept Mizzou on the road. Probably will fall behind them if I had to guess.’
7 thru 9 are USM, Georgia, and Oklahoma, and all three play rubber games today. Unless all three win, and maybe not even then, we’ll probably fall in the 6 to 8 range.
We were at 3.
#4 Georgia Tech won a series at Clemson, they’ll likely take our spot at 3.
#5 Arkansas beat us, I’m sure we’ll fall behind them.
#6 Auburn swept Mizzou on the road. Probably will fall behind them if I had to guess.’
7 thru 9 are USM, Georgia, and Oklahoma, and all three play rubber games today. Unless all three win, and maybe not even then, we’ll probably fall in the 6 to 8 range.
Polls are secondary at best, subjective ranking, and subject to bias. But RPI is what matters in the end. And if that’s what matters at the end- then that’s what matters most now. Polls are vibes, eye tests, and SEC bias rolled into one- nothing more than fun to argue about on Monday. Speaking of eye test- to me we have some pitching depth problems and a catcher problem. Then we’re didn’t hit as well against our first SEC opponent.
Should be about 15th, probably ranked 5-6th..but polls mean nothing. RPI is what counts.
Just completely false. Is this your first year to follow college baseball (or any other sport that uses RPI)?
Yeah, in the end. RPI is fairly worthless until the end of the season. It doesn’t have enough data points until you’re at least 3/4 through the regular season.
The NCAA wouldn’t publish daily RPI if it was merely worthless, didn’t have enough data, and only mattered at the end. The RPI is already telling a more accurate story than a poll that might keep us top 5 on “vibes” or SEC bias.
How is that false or “completely false”? I’m not ignoring the eye test or the polls as I’ve pointed out- I’m just saying RPI is the one metric that doesn’t lie when the committee sits down. It’s what matters most because it’s what WILL matter most. We can disagree on the timing, but the math doesn’t care about March feelings.
We probably fall in the 5-10 range. We are actually playing about 15.
Because there isn't enough information for an accurate RPI to be calculated yet. It's all so random now. You can track how RPI changes from week to week in historical seasons, and there are wild swings early on that aren't representative of the final rankings, and in the last few weeks it all solidifies.
I'm not defending RPI as a mathematically valid tool to rank teams. It's not. But RPI in mid-March just isn't predictive of where RPI is going to be at the end of May.
Example - LSU's RPI is 134 right now. It will be less than half of that number by the end of May, even if LSU finishes near the bottom of the conference. If LSU finishes near the top of the SEC, it will be a tenth of that. Similarly, Georgia and Vanderbilt being 125 and 174 isn't going to hold up.
On the flip side, Columbia is 2-10 with an RPI of 32. It won't be #32 in May even if they literally go undefeated in Ivy League play.
We’re a top 15 team. If we had a SOLID catcher and the bullpen showed more moxy, we’d be a justified top 5.
Fair points on the volatility, early RPI is a mess, and you’re right that it swings wildly in March before settling down- I agree with all of that. I’m not saying RPI is gospel in mid March. I am saying it’s the one metric that doesn’t lie when the committee sits down in May. It’s the foundation of the selection formula. Southern Miss isn’t #1 RPI because of “March feelings”- they’re there because they have the hardest non con SOS in the country, and done very well with it. That’s not random- that’s resume building evidence. You can say “RPI will change” all day- and it will- but the committee isn’t going to ignore the fact that Southern Miss has already beaten MSU and played a tougher slate early. That data doesn’t evaporate in April. It looks like Southern Miss might lose this game on now- so it will be interesting to see what thís does to their RPI.
Without Milewski, we’re a top 15 team. With him, top 10. His injury definitely cost us the USM game, probably game 3 yesterday, and you can make an argument for the UCLA game.
To be top 5, someone else in the pen has to become a dependable, lights-out arm besides Gleason and Webb, AND we have to be willing to use all of them more than one point something innings per weekend.
I expect to be ranked around eighth tomorrow.
To be top 5, someone else in the pen has to become a dependable, lights-out arm besides Gleason and Webb, AND we have to be willing to use all of them more than one point something innings per weekend.
I expect to be ranked around eighth tomorrow.
They probably haven't really had the hardest non-conference schedule in America though. They just got lucky that the RPI early season oddities benefit them, and also teams they've played like USCB and Louisiana Tech. It will all get sorted out.
You’re mad that RPI is telling a story you don’t like right now and it doesn’t match your personal ranking. The RPI is all that really matters and ultimately all we should use and go by.
I dont follow baseball closely so I don’t have a personal ranking, I just know how RPI works and the point you’re arguing is dumb.
OK, I'll mark down 2-10 Columbia as a 2 seed and at large bid, while LSU, Georgia, and Vanderbilt aren't even close to being a bubble team, instead of just waiting a few weeks for it to work itself out like it does every year...
You’re telling me you barely follow the sport- but you’re confident enough in your mastery of RPI mechanics to declare my entire argument “dumb”. lol. Your reply is contradictory clownery with a side of fake indifference.
The RPI functions the same across all the sports that use it. It requires a lot of data to get the correct output and that takes a majority of the season. This isn’t rocket science.
Bubble? What bubble? They’re basically locked in top 8 seeds already, because of vibes or whatever. We’ll just ignore the current math and fast forward to May like nothing happened. We can all just rank teams based on “what we think they’ll be” instead of “what they actually are right now.” No need for weekly polls- no need to look at the games played- no need to acknowledge that useless RPI. We can just declare our favorites top 10 and tell the spreadsheet to shut up. Brilliant system- I like it.
What are you even talking about? Are you high?
Of course we'll use RPI at the end of the season. But on March 15, it means nothing.
We’ll just collectively agree to ignore the RPI until it magically becomes reliable in May, then retroactively pretend it was always the only thing that mattered.
Brilliant. Can’t wait for May when y’all suddenly become RPI evangelists and I look like an Old Testament prophet.
Again, what the hell are you talking about? At the end of May when the regular season is complete, RPI will matter, but literally no one will ever say "it was always the only thing that ever mattered."
RPI has never mattered in March and never will. If you had paid attention to any baseball discussion in the last 20 years here, you would know this.
I can already see where this is going. State is currently 14th so it’s not earth shattering to predict them to finish right around that.
You’ve got this bookmarked and will come do a victory lap if it ends up about the same.
Yes, RPI matters IN THE END.
There’s not enough data among all the teams for it to matter on March 15th though.
I don’t disagree that polls don’t really matter. But also RPI doesn’t matter until later.
Southern lost, Georgia and OU won.
Feel pretty confident 1 thru 5 will be UCLA, Texas, GT, Arkansas, Auburn.
6 thru 8 will be some order of State, UGA, OU. Doesn’t matter that much regardless but that’s what I expect.
Feel pretty confident 1 thru 5 will be UCLA, Texas, GT, Arkansas, Auburn.
6 thru 8 will be some order of State, UGA, OU. Doesn’t matter that much regardless but that’s what I expect.