BACATOLOGY 3/9 NCAA TOURNEY OUTLOOK

[G- RUnit]

I have no position on the Pearls, I just can’t put in a team in at one game over .500.
My God how royally hosed were we a few years ago.

If the Power Conference aren’t going to play the mid majors home and away or on neutral courts they can’t rely on strength of schedule to justify a bid.

 

[Scarlet Blind_rivals]

Tbh, I'd take San Diego St(Q1/2 9-10, 15-10) over Texas(7-13, 10-14) or Auburn.(7-15, 11-16).

 

[bac2therac]

Tbh, I'd take San Diego St(Q1/2 9-10, 15-10) over Texas(7-13, 10-14) or Auburn.(7-15, 11-16).

i can definitely see this as a curveball yet their wins basically suck.

1-4 vs field, 1-5 if you include Troy...6 losses to non field and just a home win over Utah State but the sos is strong and thats their biggest asset. If they want to take the least offensive bubble over Texas and Auburn and go with the school with a Q1/2/3 that is positive this is who they will go for but the committee are such morons, they talk about Quad 1 wins, wins vs field and wab, if those things are importnat than SD St should not be getting a bid.

 

[G- RUnit]

I’m also curios seedings. So they still do the S curve? Seems to me Wiscy, Vandy and St. John’s have to move up.

 

[bac2therac]

its almost too eeriely that most bracketologist are on pretty good agreement with the field right now..that means a surprise is coming

 

[bac2therac]

I’m also curios seedings. So they still do the S curve? Seems to me Wiscy, Vandy and St. John’s have to move up.

yes but I really cannot see St Johns moving from a 5...they have zero out of conference to point to. Under principles it should not matter they won the big east regular season and conference..its a weak *** conference. They should not get a bump to a 4 because their metrics and wins simply do not support that over the sec schools and kansas

 

[Doctor Worm]

The late night dancers were Hawaii in the Big West and Califirnia Baptist from the WAC

Wow I had no idea California Baptist was a thing. I know that there is a California, and I know that there are Baptists, but I was unaware of the intersection of the two.

As for Hawaii, to me they will always be just the Rainbows. None of this Rainbow Warriors crap. Reeks of toxic masculinity.

 

[bac2therac]

I am actually thinking Purdue could supplant Michigan State as a 2

 

[bac2therac]

its very close along the 8-9s, 10-15s and 16-21s

 

[scarletpumpernickl]

If Dayton wins, will Dayton play in Dayton?

 

[NJ-Hoops17]

Here is this mornings WAB update

36	Santa Clara	WCC	2.07
37	Miami (OH)	MAC	1.69
38	Iowa	Big Ten	1.60
39	Texas A&M	SEC	1.50
40	VCU	Atlantic 10	1.34
41	Missouri	SEC	1.20
42	Saint Louis	Atlantic 10	1.19
43	NC State	ACC	0.80
44	Auburn	SEC	0.40
45	SMU	ACC	0.05
46	Texas	SEC	0.00
47	San Diego St.	Mountain West	-0.15
48	McNeese	Southland	-0.20
49	Oklahoma	SEC	-0.43
50	Oklahoma St.	Big 12	-0.45
51	Virginia Tech	ACC	-0.46
52	Indiana	Big Ten	-0.50
53	Akron	MAC	-0.67
54	California	ACC	-0.68
55	Arizona St.	Big 12	-0.70
56	Seton Hall	Big East	-0.74
57	Stanford	ACC	-0.84
58	South Fla.	American	-0.91
59	New Mexico	Mountain West	-0.92

Texas has now moved to right on the cut line with a 0 WAB an improvment from yesterdays -.015. San Diego State has now moved to a negative WAB. Auburn at .40 and SMU at .05 would be in the field with Texas out but the Longhorns have now moved to 0 WAB up from yesterdays -.015. I expected by principles it should come down to these 3 schools for 2 bids. Lets see if the NCAA walks the walks since they emphasized WAB so much , if they were to select a negative WAB they would be setting themselves up for major criticism. In addition VCU currently 40 in the WAB at +1.34 is fairly strong. Not sure a Q2 loss on a neutral court will pull that down too much. Note though that WVU had a strong WAB last year and was left out. VCU will still be vulnerable with a loss today.


Santa Clara 41/36
VCU 42/40
Auburn 43/44
Texas 44/46
NC State 45/43
Oklahoma 47/49
Seton Hall 48/56
SMU 49/45
Indiana 50/52


Is their a possibility that the committee just decides to put BOTH Auburn and Texas in the field and knock out SMU or SMU and VCU if they do not win the A10. Its certainly one way they can go. I am leaning putting Texas in over Auburn for that last spot but to tell you the truth I am not enamored at all with Texas and Auburns has better wins. I am down on Auburn solely for their 17-16 and 11-16 Q1/2/3, its just a bridge too far for me but I can easily see the committee justifying it. However I am open after scrubbing to putting Auburn in solely on who I think is the better at large team and I just think Auburn is better than Texas and SMU

VCU is just 1-5 vs the field and that is if USF makes it. Its a very weak mark.

I think Auburn will get in based on WAB, NET, and wins over the field (not sure if I agree with it though). I think Oklahoma would be an interesting team if they got in over a team like Texas, finished the year strong and had decent metrics

 

[knight82]

yes but I really cannot see St Johns moving from a 5...they have zero out of conference to point to. Under principles it should not matter they won the big east regular season and conference..its a weak *** conference. They should not get a bump to a 4 because their metrics and wins simply do not support that over the sec schools and kansas

I know it's body of work but St John's has proven on the basketball floor that they are better than UConn. Why bother to play the games if they are not going to matter most?

 

[bac2therac]

If Dayton wins, will Dayton play in Dayton?

no..they will be an 11 seed as an A10 AQ. AQs do not play in Dayton

 

[bac2therac]

I think Auburn will get in based on WAB, NET, and wins over the field (not sure if I agree with it though). I think Oklahoma would be an interesting team if they got in over a team like Texas, finished the year strong and had decent metrics

It would be historical. All depends if they have any principles when it comes to wins and losses. If its about best wins and probably best team then Auburn is the choice over the 3 sec bubbles. With Tex vs Oklahoma, I just think Oklahoma came on the radar too late.

its close though...Texas is 6-10 vs field and Ok is 5-9, tex has slightly better wab and sor and OK has a negative wab. Tex sos and ooc sos is slightly better..they have a 2 Q1A wins to OK just 1. However 7-13 and 10-14 is problematic vs 10-15/12-15. Texas has a ooc win vs field and OK doesnt, Tex has a Q3 loss and Ok doesnt. Honestly the more I compare them the more I want to put Auburn in over both.

 

[bac2therac]

I know it's body of work but St John's has proven on the basketball floor that they are better than UConn. Why bother to play the games if they are not going to matter most?

because St John is only 4-4 (Uconn2x and Nova 2x), vs the field and UConn is 8-3 (fla, ill, stj, kansas, byu, tex, nova 2x). The first meeting uconn won 72-40 too. St Johns does not have a legit out ooc win best was Baylor who is 500. Big East sucked this year so winning there gets you nothing beyond an overrated Nova. Its full body of work

 

[bac2therac]

I would not be totally shocked to see UCLA on the 6 line and not the expected 7

 

[NJ-Hoops17]

It would be historical. All depends if they have any principles when it comes to wins and losses. If its about best wins and probably best team then Auburn is the choice over the 3 sec bubbles. With Tex vs Oklahoma, I just think Oklahoma came on the radar too late.

its close though...Texas is 6-10 vs field and Ok is 5-9, tex has slightly better wab and sor and OK has a negative wab. Tex sos and ooc sos is slightly better..they have a 2 Q1A wins to OK just 1. However 7-13 and 10-14 is problematic vs 10-15/12-15. Texas has a ooc win vs field and OK doesnt, Tex has a Q3 loss and Ok doesnt. Honestly the more I compare them the more I want to put Auburn in over both.

That’s why I’m confident Auburn gets in. It might be a hot take but I don’t think it’s totally out of the question they could avoid Dayton, especially considering that the bubble is not great this year. The metrics are really in their favor and I think the committee rewards the really tough SOS

 

[UofMbasketball]

Vanderbilt vs Virginia for the final 3 in my eyes. I'm not seeing it with Nebraska

 

[bac2therac]

That’s why I’m confident Auburn gets in. It might be a hot take but I don’t think it’s totally out of the question they could avoid Dayton, especially considering that the bubble is not great this year. The metrics are really in their favor and I think the committee rewards the really tough SOS

True and im about ready to put both SEC schools Auburn and Texas in. I really dont like what SMU has to offer

As for seeding i could see them as a 10 but i mean there is the Auburn/Miami (Ohio) sitting right there

 

[bac2therac]

Vanderbilt vs Virginia for the final 3 in my eyes. I'm not seeing it with Nebraska

Vanderbilt easily over Virginia.

 

[bac2therac]

Fran doing an Irish Jig as Penn upsets Yale.

Big seeding changes now...contingency brackets activated

 

[bac2therac]

I think Penn becomes a 14 but it will be close with North Dakota State for that last 13

High Point AND Northern Iowa both now on the 12 line with Mc Neese and Akron

 

[Doctor Worm]

I know it's body of work but St John's has proven on the basketball floor that they are better than UConn. Why bother to play the games if they are not going to matter most?

You answered your own question before you even asked it. The games do matter most - all 31 to 35 of them.

 

[bac2therac]

this SEC championship wont move Arkansas from a 5 to a 4.. their profile and wins are still behind not only Vandy but Kansas as well.

 

[King of S]

Fran doing an Irish Jig as Penn upsets Yale.

Big seeding changes now...contingency brackets activated

Why did the Yale coach call timeouts after their made foul shots? It gave Penn a chance to set up 3’s on both occasions. Bizzare.

 

[bac2therac]

really torn between what the committee will do

3 scenarios

the overwhelming consensus scenario on bracketmatrix: SMU/Texas IN, Auburn OUT
the wins matter scenario loss total be damned: Auburn/Texas IN, SMU out
the lets go clean scenario even if it makes the last 2 are weak: SMU/San Diego State IN, Auburn/Texas OUT
the lets throw a total curveball and **** principles: Stanford/SMU IN, Auburn/Texas OUT

the first is very safe. I want to put Auburn so badly but historically I have to see it first. Last year history was made with Texas 3 games sub 500 in Q1/2/3..what do they do with 11-16 in Q1/2/3

Texas has the quality wins especially on the road but its a worse resume than last year and they are only 10-14 in Q1/2/3 which is historical too

SMU profile sucks...i do not think they are a good team or deserve it but 14-13 in Q1/2/3 matters

San Diego State is not a tourney team and beat only 1 team in but 16-11 vs Q1/2/3 with a wab just missing puts them right there

 

[bac2therac]

These are the only schools that will cause outrage if left out: Missouri, NC State, Santa Clara, Saint Louis, Miami (Ohio). No school has any right to ***** about not making it

 

[scarletpumpernickl]

Can we get a list of players that once they left Rutgers that when on to the NCAA's?

Here's my list going back to 1997.

2025: Cliff Omoruyi (Alabama), Mawot Mag (BYU)
2024: Cam Spencer (UConn)
2022: Myles Johnson (UCLA), Peter Kiss (Bryant)
2021: Eugene Omoruyi (Oregon)
2014: Eli Carter (Florida), Austin Carrol (American)
2013: Mike Rosario (Florida), Greg Echenique (Creighton)
2012: Mike Rosario (Florida), Greg Echenique (Creighton)
2004: Luis Flores (Manhattan)
2003: Luis Flores (Manhattan), Dahntay Jones (Duke)
2002: Dahntay Jones (Duke)
2001: Josh Sankes (Holy Cross), Earl Johnson (Iona)
1997: Charles Jones (LIU)

 

[bac2therac]

if the committee has been factoring the last few days and their effects on metrics, Vanderbilt deserves a 3 seed, if not they will be a 4

 

[UofMbasketball]

This is what I think it should be with Arkansas winning SECT. Will it be? idk but that's how I would do it

 

[bac2therac]

View attachment 1219446
This is what I think it should be with Arkansas winning SECT. Will it be? idk but that's how I would do it

not bad. I still think overall that Alabama and Kansas have stronger win profiles and body of work over Arkansas and St Johns but its close...also close if Vandy gets that 3 or not.

the committee seems to love Alabama every year....Arky probably deserves the 4 based on todays SEC win but not that might have already been seeded...also Bama has that head to head win over both St Johns and Arky even though sometime head to head isnt a thing

 

[bac2therac]

Wichita State looks like a 12 if they beat USF which would bump High Point to a 13, for some they will bump Northern Iowa to 13
Mc Neese would then move to 11 as I think its a better profile than Akron

 

[UofMbasketball]

Purdue handing it to Michigan. Def deserves the 2 now

 

[Sweet Pea's Corner]

Here's my list going back to 1997.

2025: Cliff Omoruyi (Alabama), Mawot Mag (BYU)
2024: Cam Spencer (UConn)
2022: Myles Johnson (UCLA), Peter Kiss (Bryant)
2021: Eugene Omoruyi (Oregon)
2014: Eli Carter (Florida), Austin Carrol (American)
2013: Mike Rosario (Florida), Greg Echenique (Creighton)
2012: Mike Rosario (Florida), Greg Echenique (Creighton)
2004: Luis Flores (Manhattan)
2003: Luis Flores (Manhattan), Dahntay Jones (Duke)
2002: Dahntay Jones (Duke)
2001: Josh Sankes (Holy Cross), Earl Johnson (Iona)
1997: Charles Jones (LIU)

Thanks!

 

[bac2therac]

Purdue handing it to Michigan. Def deserves the 2 now

yeah but if they decided before Saturday they were a 3...but yeah I dont see how you can have sparty over purdue but they might

 

[scarletpumpernickl]

Every year I doubt the committee taking the last B10 game into consideration. They sometimes claim there are contingency plans but I think the bracket has been set and Purdue won't get rewarded. I could be wrong.

 

[bac2therac]

likely didnt matter for today but yesterday should have bumped them to a 2 anyhow..should have is the key word