Makes sense for you to do that since you’re still working. As someone retired, I don’t mind dividends and capital gains distributions In my taxable accounts, they help fund my retirement/lifestyle.
OT: Stock and Investment Thread
- Thread starter RU05
- Start date
Might get another chanceThat short from $120'ish seems so far away now.
Could have made a killing.
Oil/energy and software still holding up the best. I keep looking at NOW for a long-term play. Also, been slowing building a leaps position in TOST.
I'm waiting for the big T to declare victory and move on to Cuba. The Iranian military is essentially destroyed. What else needs to be done (without ground troops)?
Can’t just declare victory and move on!!! That will greatly destabilize the Middle East and put Israel in a perilous position.
He already said only a few more days. They are running out of targets. Declare victory, move on, but watch. If Iran starts trying to rebuild its military, wipe them out again. Rinse and repeat. Regime change can only come from the people (especially without ground troops).
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By the way, are you playing the international markets at all? In particular Japan and China. Global markets had a nice pullback over the past 2 weeks.
That's easier said than done. Each time you bomb the country indiscriminately, you do things like destroying a school. Nothings radicalizes people more than killing innocent children. Not to mention the fact that we have not stopped their nuclear programs. They are a lot closer to nuclear weapons than Trump is leading people to believe.
I don't really do much international markets. I will dabble into them from time to time, but certainly not part of my main portfolio.
I don‘t know if Iran is closer to nuclear weapons or not. Respectfully, why do you believe they are closer? Not disputing your thought, it just seems more and more difficult to glean the truth these days.
I've been essentially zero international for the past 10 years (at least), but started playing with EEM and EMZ calls a few months ago. Obviously, this is pretty much a bet on a weakening dollar.
No one knows for sure and neither the US nor Iran is likely telling the truth, but it has been widely accepted that Iran was able to move much of its enriched uranium before the strikes last year. If true, then it can be assumed that hey will continue to work towards a nuclear weapon. We all know that having a nuclear weapon completely changes the calculus for any country wanting to attack Iran. My understanding is that the only way to remove the enriched uranium is to have soldiers on the ground remove the heavy uranium. This something that no one is wanting to do.
Or send in Pete Mitchell and his elite Top Gun team. They flew a mission similar to this in 2022, I believe. Although Maverick was pushing it age-wise 4 years ago so not sure if he'd still be up for it.
Open up the straight of Hormuz.
Only Iranian and chinese vessels are getting out right now. Which is hard to believe.
I like your attitude. You should volunteer to steer oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz.So it's open, let's go. Those crews need to stop being chicken!
Just remember that the tweet/resolution of the conflict will happen in a blink of an eye and you won’t have time to react. As such, stay invested in what will pop the most when that happens.
My personal account has plenty of cash already, which I am slowly deploying. No changes to our main investment accounts.
EDIT: And to be transparent. Holding onto (and adding a bit) to oil/energy, shipping companies, copper miners, and big tech. Adding to MSFT and AAPL leaps. Looking to buy NOW leaps soon (perhaps under $110?). Need to look.
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I had to look out the window and see if pigs were flying. @T2Kplus20 is not 100% invested.
Might be smart to stay in cash for a while. A tweet is not going to resolve anything. The WH can't just claim victory and expect Iran to stop. Not to mention, we're deploying marines over there as we speak. Just attacked Kharg Island. Things are escalating, not slowing down.
Oh and growth is slowing while inflation remains at 3%.
www.cnbc.com
Oh and growth is slowing while inflation remains at 3%.
Fourth-quarter GDP revised down to just 0.7% growth; January core inflation was 3.1%
The PCE price index for January was expected to show headline inflation at 2.9% and core at 3.1%.
www.cnbc.com
I don’t think opening up the strait will be easy.
New Iranian leader is likely not looking to negotiate and is likely hiding deep in the ground somewhere.
Put the money into SGOV for now. May buy USO which is pushing $120 again.
Of course it will be easy. The tweet says: "Iran's military is destroyed, mission accomplished, on to Cuba". Sooner or later Trump will determine the result is good enough and just move on. How do I know this? Because I remember the lessons of the past 5 years in office. LOL!
Truflation YoY is below 2% (which is way, way, way more accurate than CPI). Sounds like Warsh is going to pivot and start using its data for Fed analyses once chair.Might be smart to stay in cash for a while. A tweet is not going to resolve anything. The WH can't just claim victory and expect Iran to stop. Not to mention, we're deploying marines over there as we speak. Just attacked Kharg Island. Things are escalating, not slowing down.
Oh and growth is slowing while inflation remains at 3%.
Fourth-quarter GDP revised down to just 0.7% growth; January core inflation was 3.1%
The PCE price index for January was expected to show headline inflation at 2.9% and core at 3.1%.
its about actually having control of the straight.
thats the hard part
market won’t let him fake it.
Iran's official position is we will interfere with the straight until the US/Israel stop attacking. Seems straightforward (pun!). LOL.
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Im sure they can be taken on their word.
US/China summit next month decides all of this. China has the most to lose here. I won’t bet against a resolution
Very good point. Iran is essentially a satellite state of China. By the way, nice strength by the crypto market over the past few weeks.
Gotta look at this as buying opportunities
While I understand the comment (LOL!) there needs to be some additional context. My personal account (Fidelity brokerage) is linked to my equity payouts. So, every quarter I get additional ammo dumped into it. Also, end of Feb/early March is annual cash payouts for most of biotech and pharma. So even more ammo this time of year. Does that calm you down a bit?
Hard not to love MSFT, AAPL, and AMZN at these discounts.
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Stocks are surface foam. There are harbor mines all over the place just below the surface. Some saw that there were growing problems with lots of interconnections but typical of US management the problems were ignored (for 15 years were heard China was monopolizing rare earths but US ignored it).
Ed Dowd (BlackRock exec) and Melanie Wright a real estate finance expert fill-in a lot of blanks. Hearing one honest insider is always interesting but two meeting for the first time and sharing notes is unusually captivating. Both know a big problem is unavoidable now and the best that can be done is to get out front and break things into parts so you don't have a nuke. Dowd thinks the problems hits this year (stock shrink releases the hounds).
Real estate is 30% overvalued but the South has been coming back to earth while NE is still in fantasy world. A lot of older people with bogus valuations are headed for the sacrificial volcano. Commercial real estate known to be bad but its worse. Lots of false data and sloppy deals (properties sold based on full occupancy that was never in place). Double pledging all over the place. Both agree problem worse than 2008 and there will be no bailouts
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