Military Strikes on Iran Imminent
- Thread starter PalmettoTiger1
- Start date
The military version of that saying referencing Tyson is, "No plan survives contact with the enemy" or "the enemy also gets a vote" (on your plan). Also as they say, "**** happens". That doesn't mean that you don't try to plan for everything and account for everythign that may happen, but plans much be flexible to account for new information that you get as the situation develops. There are formal constructs within the military decision making process and staff processes to try ensure that commanders (and staffs) don't come up with a plan that is full of bias, or fall in love with the plan and ignore a situation that is changing. It's not easy.
I'm just pulling stuff from available open source info. But some of this stuff i have direct experience with, have learned about via professional education or just being around,and it helps me pick up on some things and/or read between the lines and maybe ask the right questions of AI to get something intelligent back. But with that said, my knowlege from direct experience and or education is getting more stale by the year.
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Shipwreck (@shipwreck75.bsky.social)
Video from a Chinese cargo ship which shows an Iranian Shahed-136 striking an oil tank at the Port of Salalh in Oman.bsky.app
@LafayetteBear, have you seen this? The way things have been going, it makes you wonder if the federal govt. would be willing to protect your state.
abcnews.com
FBI warns Iran aspired to attack California with drones in retaliation for war: Alert
The warning came in a bulletin that was reviewed by ABC News.
abcnews.com
1. Why the hell would the Iranians be attacking California, of all U.S. states? This state is probably more opposed to Trump's war than any other U.S. state. Of course, that argument presupposes the Iranians are gonna act rationally. I would acknowledge that there are certainly a LOT more high value targets here in California than in, say, Mississippi or West Virginia. Do they even have a single high value target in either of those two states? The only thing I can think of is possibly The Grove.@LafayetteBear, have you seen this? The way things have been going, it makes you wonder if the federal govt. would be willing to protect your state.
FBI warns Iran aspired to attack California with drones in retaliation for war: Alert
The warning came in a bulletin that was reviewed by ABC News.
2. Drones are gonna be the bane of our existence going forward. They are unmanned, and they will continue to get more sophisticated, not only in terms of their range and maneuverability, but also in terms of what they can carry and what they can fire. They will also become relatively cheaper to manufacture over time. All in all, a real problem.
just remember the money Iran spend comes from oil revenue.
How much pain do you think Iran will sustain. Now that our bombers are in the UK they can make the runs more quickly.
You seem to be "pulling" for Iran. You're ok with them having enough uranium for 11 bombs?
It's fun reading the Maga comments about Iran having the audacity to defend itself.
Well if you so unhappy just saying might be a good time to relocate.
No need to get hostile.
At this point... you have to think its either complete negligence or the plan is to sell off all of Americas farmland to private interests. Taking the last most important asset the people have over their government....land and their ability to grow their own food.
Ned: Reading comprehension does not appear to be one of your strong points. I prefaced my entire post with the words "If I was Iranian and in charge over there." And I ended it by noting that mining the Strait of Hormuz would be "sound strategy from the Iranian perspective." That hardly constitutes "pulling for Iran."
We have a coaliton and so far it's holding. We have the Gulf states and Israel working together. Gulf states are allowing us access/basing (and providing that basing for essentially free) and are providing forces for the anti -air /anti-missile defense of those bases. I dont know this for certain, but i would assume they will also provide counter mine support once the US Navy attrits Iran's offensive capability to an acceptable level. The UK is allowing our bombers to use their customary airbases when supporting military activities in the gulf region.
I could be wrong but I believe the coalition building started when trump took office during his first foreign trip...which was a tour of the coutries in the gulf. It is inconceivable that Iran and potential peace / normalization with Israel was not talked about and everone probably circle talked around the possibility of issues with Iran but did enough to get somewhat on the same page.
If we look at our european allies... they have limited capability to support anyway. UK for example has a couple small VTOL carriers that have mainteance problems a small number of subs and a limited number of destroyers and frigates that could contribute to air defense. Really UK + France etc. just don't have a lot of *** to bring to this fight.
The real thing is the basing, IMO. If for example we got denied use of the local air bases for offensive operations then we would have to wrap things up.
This coalition is much smaller than the ones our plans were based on. The Gulf States have relatively limited capacity and their assets are being primarily used for defense. It appears the UAE is running low on interceptors and having to do more prioritization than they would like. Europe is barely participating. Most of France's naval deployment is to Cyprus in the eastern Med to defend that island. The UK has some air stuff in the region but it appears to be defensive. Yes, they are letting us use air bases, even in the UK.
My main point though, is that what we're working with doesn't match what is required by a lot of the planning. In terms of offensive striking power it is just us and Israel. We are the only people interested in taking down their regime. If Iran is able to mine the strait in more than a minor way then our goose is cooked. We have never done our current mine sweeping techniques in combat conditions. Even during the First Gulf War we waited until after the war to de-mine and it took us more than 50 days to get rid of ~900 mines. We also don't have a lot of anti-mine assets in the region. Most of what we're doing is based around an air campaign
Nobody wants a ground campaign.
I guess my main point is that we really don't need any help offensively to do what we're doing other than Israel. Any offensive activities would be so those folks could get participation trophies and some sort of bragging rights down the road. I guess some NATO countries could suppport in some limited way but we've got the air and naval side of this thing covered, IMO. As far as counter mine assets. I got you, but there aren't many of them anywhere. US, the UK etc. are all transitioning away from decades old minesweepers and moving to UUVs / AUVs and other tech such as aerial assets. It's impractical to halt/reverse decommissionings already in progress from a practical perspective.
U.S. at Fault in Strike on School in Iran, Preliminary Inquiry Says - The New York Times https://share.google/kt9TO9wBvlPlttRv4
That article seems to be behind a pay wall. So pls summarize if you don't mind. .
The Pentagon won't hide it whatever happened IMHO, they will give a full accounting.
Not sure what the article says, but from what i gleaneed from other open sources is that it looks like the weapon functioned correctly and hit its aimpoint +-. Looks like the categorization of that building as a legit miltary target and likely information came from higher level national assets/organization and was provided to CENTCOM. If there was nothing that stood out to the CENTCOM targeteers as a mistake then it got put on a list, assesed for potential attack methods / munitions to achieve desired effects, and then prioritized for engagement.
Tragic.
edit: corrected grammar
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I have to say, I wonder just what it actually means to hit a 'bank' these days. Are we to believe that in the vault of the bank, there is an immense pile of hard currency waiting to be disbursed to people, or that their account and transaction data is actually all held onsite?
SIAP. Not sure if you've seen this overhead view of where the girls school was located inside the compound but you can see how it was mistakenly targeted.
"Reuters first reported that military investigators believed it likely the U.S. was behind the attack, and the New York Times reported Wednesday that a preliminary Pentagon investigation had found the reason may have been due to outdated data. A U.S. official and a person familiar with the targeting confirmed to The Post that the initial investigation appeared to indicate that the school strike was conducted by the U.S. military. The mistaken strike was probably due to an intelligence error on the target location, the official said.
The school used to be part of an Iranian naval base and may still be affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy, but it had been walled off since 2015, and separate entrances were also added between mid-2015 and early 2016, according to a Post and expert analysis of satellite imagery. There is an outdoor play area that appears on Google Earth as early as 2017.
The complex’s layout changed again in 2022, when additional walls separated what is now a medical clinic from the other surrounding buildings, satellite imagery shows. The locations of the school and clinic adjacent to — or even within — the larger IRGC compound do not make them legitimate targets, experts have said. Human Rights Watch has called for a war crime investigation on the attack."
lobster and steak dinners, I don't know why everybody doesn't want to join the combat arms branches of the military
I’m still furious that Orange Hitler fed our national championship team McDonalds.
I mean, the 93 million they spent (which included a 20k flute) is pretty close to enough to fully fund SNAP for a year. I think the question of priorities and fraud/waste is worth asking questions about. Just like there are other issues worth asking questions about on programs the left cares about.
However, it is exceedingly dumb that anyone thought that was like Hesgeth's personal spend though. Overwhelmingly dumb.
They bought a 30k grand piano for a general's house.... waste and fraud doesn't apply to the military industrial complex. Don't grunts still have to pay for their own travel with a personal credit card??? Lets not act like low level military members are living it up.
I don't think that was the point of ANEW's post.
C rations and MREs can be very tasty when you're hungry
I dont mean to be nasty but yalls entire disposition around these issues appear arrogant and non pluses over actual factual serious issues.
the fact the a TV spokesperson stated that Hegseth bought $22 or whatever number worth of lobster for his personal use. That serious issue?
In September, the DoD spent 93 billion on various things that appear to be waste. Why do you benefit from ignoring this?
How are C rations different from Meals Ready to Eat ("MRE's")? Or are they pretty much the same thing? Do you have to add water to them? Heat them? (I assume you don't need to heat them; hence the name MRE.) What is the shelf life on an MRE. (The mind boggles.)
OK, from what I have read or watched, Hegseth did not buy this surf and turf for his personal use. The video footage of soldiers with lobster tails and steak on their plates seems to belie that fact.
That being said, I think it is remarkably bad PR for Hegseth to be out buying lobster and steak in the immediate wake of Noem wanting to spend (what?) $70 million for her own private plane, or for Trump to be building a $400 million ballroom even if it is funded fully by private donations. That's just plain dumb. It's quite clearly not the biggest issue out there, but why put a target on your own back?