The economy

Dadar

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Dec 21, 2003
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Howard Lutnick followed by Kevin Hassett near the globex open time on Bloomberg came across as smiling bafoons
 

Dadar

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WTI march hit 119.48 up 30% things are going to get expensive
 

fatpiggy

Heisman
Aug 18, 2002
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if you're referencing depletion allowance, that's an old, worn argument
I don’t know, I just want an even playing field and if there is I think electric will win out.

Seems as if there are getting subsidies
Yes, there are currently government subsidies supporting the **oil and gas industry** in the United States (and likely in other countries, though U.S. data is most prominently discussed in recent sources as of early 2026).

These primarily take the form of **tax breaks**, **special deductions**, **credits**, and other incentives rather than direct cash handouts in many cases. Estimates vary depending on the source and definition (e.g., explicit vs. implicit subsidies, federal only vs. including state/local):

- Recent analyses from organizations like **Oil Change International** (September 2025 report, still cited as current in 2026 sources) estimate U.S. federal subsidies for fossil fuel production (including oil and gas) at around **$34.8 billion annually**. This includes preexisting supports plus an additional **$4 billion per year** added in 2025 via legislation referred to as the "One Big Beautiful Bill" (or similar major tax-and-spend bill passed in July 2025), which is projected to provide about **$39.7–$40 billion** in new fossil fuel subsidies over the next decade.
- Other estimates place direct federal subsidies or tax expenditures in the **$29–$35 billion** range annually, with cumulative historical tax subsidies for fossil fuels (oil, gas, and coal) exceeding **$549 billion** since the early 20th century.
- Key mechanisms include:
- Expensing of **intangible drilling costs** (allowing immediate deductions for exploration and development expenses).
- **Percentage depletion** allowances (deducting a fixed percentage of revenue rather than actual costs).
- Special treatment for foreign royalties and taxes (e.g., dual capacity taxpayer provisions).
- Credits like those for enhanced oil recovery or carbon capture (often used in oil production).
- Lower royalty rates on federal lands and other provisions.

Some industry-aligned or government data sources argue these are not true "subsidies" but rather standard tax treatments, with explicit measurable support much lower (e.g., around **$3 billion** in direct forms for 2022, per older EIA/Treasury data). However, broader consensus from environmental groups, think tanks (e.g., Center for American Progress), and media reports (e.g., The Guardian) confirms ongoing significant support through the tax code and policy, often criticized as market distortions favoring fossil fuels.

Globally, fossil fuel subsidies (including consumer-side) remain high, but producer supports like those in the U.S. persist and in some cases expanded under recent policy shifts. Note that figures can fluctuate with oil prices, legislation, and definitions—implicit subsidies (e.g., unpriced environmental/health costs) push totals much higher in some analyses (hundreds of billions), but direct government supports to the industry are the focus here.

For the most precise current details, official U.S. government sources like the Treasury Department or EIA provide tax expenditure reports, though advocacy analyses often highlight the full scope.
 

Dadar

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NQ is still trading under the 200 ema just above 24,500.
 
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Dadar

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24,500 on NQ march looks like the new magnet for gamma neutral ( rate of change for a $1 move for at the money options which should show as a consolidation pattern around the level) currently.
 

Dadar

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Ref the G 7

"Some U.S. officials would like to see a joint release of about 25% to 30% of the overall 1.2 billion barrels held, or 300 million to 400 million barrels, one source told the FT. That would mark the largest amount of oil released from reserves since the IEA’s inception.

Since the reserves were set up in 1974, there have been five such releases. The last two happened shortly after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The agency said the release in April of that year was its biggest ever, with 120 million barrels made available."
 

Dadar

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Energy shocks increasingly propagate through logistics systems rather than purely through production cuts. Shipping lanes, insurance costs, and export capacity are now critical constraints.
 

Dadar

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"The talks today between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin lasted about an hour, were constructive and business-like and “will undoubtedly have practical significance for the further work of the two countries in various areas of international politics,” Tass news agency reported, citing Kremlin foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov.
Putin and Trump Discuss Iran in First Phone Call This Year"
 

bdgan

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I would be OVERJOYED if we end up spending only $20 billion on Iran. But we have likely already exceeded that amount, or at least come close to it. And we are nowhere close to getting out of Iran at this point.

As for comparing the wars in Iran and Ukraine, Russia invaded Ukraine, and we are merely helping Ukraine defend itself and taking down Russia's military capabilities at the same time. This will help prevent additional Russian adventurism. Putin now fully understands that there is a cost attending such adventurism. We also have our European allies (if I can still call them that) assisting in this effort.

By contrast, Trump invaded Iran, and without making any effort to build support for it in Congress, with the American people, or with our Allies. This fiasco in Iran is, at its very essence, a war of choice. Trump clearly wants regime change, and it is a war despite what Trump's toadies in the GOP House and Senate caucuses say. Trump has publicly demanded an "unconditional surrender" from Iran, and a role in choosing Iran's new leader. We've already killed the first four layers of Iranian leadership. WHO is gonna do the surrendering? And why would the Iranians surrender? Why should they believe anything Trump has to say at this point? Trump bombed them while negotiations were going on and, as noted by the Omani government official who was mediating those negotiations, when it appeared that some kind of settlement was within reach.

Some years ago, Iraq invaded Iran, and had significant early military success against Iran with its relatively advanced weaponry. Iraq demanded that Iran surrender. Iran said no, and the two countries fought on for another eight (8) years, with over 1 million deaths. Iran has a history of not surrendering. And how do you administer a full surrender and the selection of a new government without boots on the ground? Putting boots on the ground in Iran will without doubt lead to a bunch of American soldiers getting killed. This war is already unpopular. According to polls, 69% of Americans oppose it. Imagine how that figure will grow as the war becomes more expensive, both in terms of treasure and blood.
That's all fine but Trump wasn't going to get support from our "allies". They supported Ukraine because the threat was near them. They don't give two shyts about Iran chanting death to America.

I think the best we can hope for is that the $20 billion (or $40 billion) will be saved by not having to spend as much to defend Israel and other nations threatened by Iran's proxies going forward.
 

JohnHughsPartner

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I'm saying at a time when gas prices are soaring due to the decisions of this administration, it's a bad time to also dis-incentivize renewable energy. This isn't hard.
I filled up at 2.90 today. Oh yea and this …

“Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, causing gas prices to surge from that point, eventually leading to a record national average of over $5.00 per gallon by June 2022. “

How do you feel about it, Mr no king? Lol
 
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dpic73

Heisman
Jul 27, 2005
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I filled up at 2.90 today. Oh yea and this …

“Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, causing gas prices to surge from that point, eventually leading to a record national average of over $5.00 per gallon by June 2022. “

How do you feel about it, Mr no king? Lol
So the cost of gas went up when your hero Putin invaded a peaceful country but somehow that's Biden's fault? That's so dumb I'd suggest you turn in for the night - you've got a long day of sitting in a chair in your mom's basement tomorrow.
 
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JohnHughsPartner

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So the cost of gas went up when your hero Putin invaded a peaceful country but somehow that's Biden's fault? That's so dumb I'd suggest you turn in for the night - you've got a long day of sitting in a chair in your mom's basement tomorrow.
Holy **** ….. 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣☠️
 

JohnHughsPartner

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So the cost of gas went up when your hero Putin invaded a peaceful country but somehow that's Biden's fault? That's so dumb I'd suggest you turn in for the night - you've got a long day of sitting in a chair in your mom's basement tomorrow.
You just can’t quit taking wieners to the face can you?!? You get smacked around at every turn
 

dpic73

Heisman
Jul 27, 2005
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You just can’t quit taking wieners to the face can you?!? You get smacked around at every turn
Nobody believes you have a fvcking clue about anything Patty. Go to bed.

"Gas prices hit a record high of over $5.00 a gallon in June 2022 due to a combination of surging demand after the pandemic, constrained global oil supply exacerbated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and low U.S. refinery capacity. Sanctions on Russia removed oil from the market, driving up crude prices.

Key factors driving the 2022 gas price surge included:
  • Russia-Ukraine Conflict: The invasion of Ukraine led to global sanctions against Russia, disrupting oil supplies and causing Brent crude prices to exceed $120 a barrel.
    Surging Demand & Pandemic Recovery: Demand for fuel rebounded sharply as the economy reopened, outstripping the available supply.
  • Low Inventory & Refining Capacity: Low gasoline inventories, coupled with reduced refinery output in the spring, created a tight supply, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported.

    bUt bIdEn
 
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LafayetteBear

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Wait, wut?!! $113 per barrel? That's gotta be wrong, because Hermy McFluffins was posting earlier today that crude oil prices had dropped to something like $80 per barrel. And everyone knows that Hermy is never wrong. :cool:
 

LafayetteBear

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Dems always end up with Trumps nuts resting on their forehead
Speaking of Cheeto, did you notice that he pulled a Daily Double at that "dignified transfer" for the four U.S. soldiers whose bodies were flown back to Dover AFB? Cheeto was wearing both a baseball hat AND a diaper. It looked like he was wearing a seat cushion under his pants. The poor sociopath.
 

TigerGrowls

Heisman
Dec 21, 2001
44,271
33,332
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Good info.



The media is in full meltdown mode over the latest jobs report showing 92,000 non-farm jobs lost.

Cue the dramatic music. Economic apocalypse! Panic in the streets!

Except when you actually look at the numbers, the story changes pretty fast.

About 10,000 of those jobs were government employees.
An unknown number were NGO workers whose funding got cut off.
And the big one nobody in the headlines wants to mention:

Foreign-born employment is down more than 500,000 since Trump took office.

Meanwhile… native-born Americans with jobs are up by hundreds of thousands.

So yeah… if you slash bureaucracy and stop funding NGOs, the job count dips.

Washington losing payroll isn’t a recession.

It’s called cleaning house.
(article below)
 

baltimorened

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Nobody believes you have a fvcking clue about anything Patty. Go to bed.

"Gas prices hit a record high of over $5.00 a gallon in June 2022 due to a combination of surging demand after the pandemic, constrained global oil supply exacerbated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and low U.S. refinery capacity. Sanctions on Russia removed oil from the market, driving up crude prices.

Key factors driving the 2022 gas price surge included:
  • Russia-Ukraine Conflict: The invasion of Ukraine led to global sanctions against Russia, disrupting oil supplies and causing Brent crude prices to exceed $120 a barrel.
    Surging Demand & Pandemic Recovery: Demand for fuel rebounded sharply as the economy reopened, outstripping the available supply.
  • Low Inventory & Refining Capacity: Low gasoline inventories, coupled with reduced refinery output in the spring, created a tight supply, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported.

    bUt bIdEn
so dpic, there is always some reason why gas prices go up or down. It just seems a little duplicitous to claim that the reasons why during a republican administration are bad, but when it occurs during a democrat admin, it's ok, or there are good reasons.

Not taking a position, in both cases prices go up and then back down again, hopefully
 
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JohnHughsPartner

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Nobody believes you have a fvcking clue about anything Patty. Go to bed.

"Gas prices hit a record high of over $5.00 a gallon in June 2022 due to a combination of surging demand after the pandemic, constrained global oil supply exacerbated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and low U.S. refinery capacity. Sanctions on Russia removed oil from the market, driving up crude prices.

Key factors driving the 2022 gas price surge included:
  • Russia-Ukraine Conflict: The invasion of Ukraine led to global sanctions against Russia, disrupting oil supplies and causing Brent crude prices to exceed $120 a barrel.
    Surging Demand & Pandemic Recovery: Demand for fuel rebounded sharply as the economy reopened, outstripping the available supply.
  • Low Inventory & Refining Capacity: Low gasoline inventories, coupled with reduced refinery output in the spring, created a tight supply, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported.

    bUt bIdEn
🤣🤣this is hilarious. Who can we blame for gas averaging out at 3.60 during Bidens term? lol
 
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bdgan

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I'm saying at a time when gas prices are soaring due to the decisions of this administration, it's a bad time to also dis-incentivize renewable energy. This isn't hard.
Apparently it is hard for you.
  1. Nobody is dis-incentivizing renewable energy. They just aren't providing as many incentives for wind and solar.
  2. The fact Trump issued an executive order to boost nuclear power.
  3. More money for wind and solar wouldn't do anything to lower gas prices.
 

bdgan

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Wait, wut?!! $113 per barrel? That's gotta be wrong, because Hermy McFluffins was posting earlier today that crude oil prices had dropped to something like $80 per barrel. And everyone knows that Hermy is never wrong. :cool:
Oil is in the $80s today