Today’s game vs. Cal is the midpoint of the regular season for the UNC women’s lacrosse team (8th of 15 games). I saw a write-up this morning that the 2026 UNC defense has given up only 6.7 goals/game. By comparison, last year’s team averaged giving up 6.9 goals/game. While this suggests that the 2026 defense > than the 2025 defense, it overlooks some very salient statistical facts.
1. The schedule. The first seven games of 2026 featured only two ranked teams — Clemson (9/10) and Syracuse (14/15) (ranking based on this week‘s polls). Cal, today’s opponent is unranked. The final seven regular season games match the Heels against six ranked teams — Stanford (2/2), Northwestern (4/4), Florida (6/7), Duke (13/15), Boston College (16/17) and Virginia (21/21). To reiterate, six of the eight ranked teams on UNC’s schedule have yet to be played.
2. Opponent’s shooting percentages. The opponents’ shooting percentage in 2026 is .448; last season the shooting percentage was .309. On free position shots, this year’s opponents are shooting .619; last season it was .276. UNC is holding 2026 opponents to 6.7 by keeping opponent shots to only 15 shots/game. Last season’s 6.9 goals/game was based on 22.2 opponent shots/game.
I don’t want come across as Chicken Little (“the sky is falling”), but there are reasons to feel a little unsettled by the season to this point. Furthermore, there are reasons to be concerned about the offense as well, which have been masked by an easy schedule (e.g., UNC is averaging 19.4 goals/game but only 12.5 goals against ranked teams). One offensive concern is that our best feeder can’t feed our best finisher because they are both Chloe Humphrey.
The good news is that four of the games against ranked opponents are home games, including all three top-10 teams. Last season UNC peaked in the late season, and I think that this is likely this season as well. Furthermore, losing a game wouldn’t be the end of the world and could provide a wake-up call.
This is not intended to be a doomsday forecast, but I’m sure that some will interpret it as such. One factor that makes me optimistic is that we have Chloe Humphrey and I am confident that she will rise to the occasion when necessary.
I went to the Clemson game last week — there was a tale of two halves. If I get a chance I will examine the second half, particularly the 4th quarter, where the Heels were outscored 1-5.