The economy
- Thread starter Rastafarian
- Start date
Trump math chaos theory has no logic base
Core wholesale prices rose 0.8% in January, much more than expected
The core producer price index increased a seasonally adjusted 0.8%, more than the 0.6% gain in December.www.cnbc.com
Some bad inflation numbers from January.
oil is the biggest risk to the economy right now. Trump will need to wrap this up in a matter of a couple weeks in order to keep inflation under control.
If he gets bogged down, it will slow our economy here and his voters will be very unhappy.
If he gets bogged down, it will slow our economy here and his voters will be very unhappy.
Wait... You think regime change will happen in a matter of weeks in Iran?
That's ridiculous.
Also, the apparent insiders who cleaned up on polymarket after making an account right before the attack.
Yep, just more uncertainty.
I keep wondering when China will see this as an opening to hit Taiwan
The Trump admin is making big boy moves and wielding US power the way it should be wielded. On all fronts, Diplomatic, Information, Military, Economic, at the same time. Trump is not playing small ball.
edit to add:
Saying we control china's oil supply is a little hyperbolic, but Iran and Venezuela make up a not insignificant part and China was had sweetheart pricing. So we're having an economic impact on them. And the better our relationship is with the other gulf states , the more potential we have to impact a larger percentage of their oil imports.
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What is ETH? My friend Google suggests that it may be something called Etherium.? Is that related to bicoins or bit mining? And what is bit mining?
The foregoing questions perhaps explain why I rely on an investment advisor.
You know, I have no issue with your comment. Then as soon as a left-wing video pops up from a far-left leaning website, you'll be one of the first ones to give it a thumbs up.
Your hypocrisy is tiring realy.
Yes Etherium crypto currency. All crypto operates pretty much the same as BTC bitcoin.What is ETH? My friend Google suggests that it may be something called Etherium.? Is that related to bicoins or bit mining? And what is bit mining?
The foregoing questions perhaps explain why I rely on an investment advisor.
If I see something I believe to be true or humorous I will like it. I never post anything from X/Twitter, but that seems to be what is mostly used, so yeah I may like some unknown site post
Been seeing a lot on this. I am split on how I feel. On one hand I think it's bullshvt. On the other I think it should be legal.
I'm going to have AI summarize the argument much better than I can. But Polymarket is not an investment site. It's a prediction site. In order to make the most accurate predictions, insiders need to be allowed to participate. There are no investor protections, because it's not an investment.
Insider trading should be legal in prediction markets because these platforms function primarily as information aggregators rather than capital-raising mechanisms like traditional stock markets. Their core purpose is to surface the most accurate probabilities about future events—such as geopolitical outcomes like the U.S. assault on Iran that killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei—by incentivizing participants to bet real money on what they know or believe will happen. As economist Robin Hanson, often called the godfather of modern prediction markets, argues, the entire point is to elicit and reveal superior information: "The only reason you should ever be trading on them is if you think you have some information." Allowing those with non-public insights—whether from proximity to decision-makers, leaked intelligence, or specialized access—to act on it accelerates the incorporation of that truth into market prices. This makes the odds more reliable and valuable for the public, who increasingly rely on platforms like Polymarket for signals on events ranging from military actions to leadership changes. In the case of bets on Khamenei's fate or related invasion outcomes, insider bets (such as the $553,000 profit on Polymarket) push prices toward reality faster, providing earlier warnings about oil disruptions, Strait of Hormuz risks, or defense implications—benefits that outweigh concerns about individual profits.
Unlike securities markets, where insider trading can undermine investor confidence and capital formation, prediction markets have no equivalent need to protect passive investors or raise funds for companies/governments. They are informational oracles, akin to news outlets or think tanks with skin in the game. Banning insider activity would suppress the very mechanism that drives accuracy: informed traders correcting mispriced contracts.
Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan has framed this as a public good, where "insider trading" enables quicker dissemination of accurate information to the masses. Even Coinbase's Brian Armstrong has noted that if prediction markets serve as oracles for truth, insider participation yields a "higher quality signal."In the Iran strikes context, the scrutiny from lawmakers like Sen. Chris Murphy and Rep. Mike Levin highlights fears of unethical gains or security leaks, but legalizing insider action would channel such knowledge into transparent, auditable prices on platforms (especially blockchain-based ones like Polymarket), reducing hidden asymmetries and encouraging leaks that serve the greater good of public awareness. Prohibitions risk turning these markets into less efficient guessing games dominated by uninformed noise, while permission aligns incentives with their fundamental role: rapid, money-weighted truth discovery amid high-stakes events like bombardments, succession uncertainties, or embassy threats.
Unlike securities markets, where insider trading can undermine investor confidence and capital formation, prediction markets have no equivalent need to protect passive investors or raise funds for companies/governments. They are informational oracles, akin to news outlets or think tanks with skin in the game. Banning insider activity would suppress the very mechanism that drives accuracy: informed traders correcting mispriced contracts.
Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan has framed this as a public good, where "insider trading" enables quicker dissemination of accurate information to the masses. Even Coinbase's Brian Armstrong has noted that if prediction markets serve as oracles for truth, insider participation yields a "higher quality signal."In the Iran strikes context, the scrutiny from lawmakers like Sen. Chris Murphy and Rep. Mike Levin highlights fears of unethical gains or security leaks, but legalizing insider action would channel such knowledge into transparent, auditable prices on platforms (especially blockchain-based ones like Polymarket), reducing hidden asymmetries and encouraging leaks that serve the greater good of public awareness. Prohibitions risk turning these markets into less efficient guessing games dominated by uninformed noise, while permission aligns incentives with their fundamental role: rapid, money-weighted truth discovery amid high-stakes events like bombardments, succession uncertainties, or embassy threats.
Recent Layoff Announcements:
1. US Government: 300,000 employees
2. UPS: 78,000 employees
3. Amazon: 30,000 employees
4. Intel: 25,000 employees
5. Nissan: 20,000 employees
6. Nestle: 16,000 employees
7. Microsoft: 15,000 employees
8. Bosch: 13,000 employees
9. Verizon: 13,000 employees
10. Dell: 12,000 employees
11. Accenture: 11,000 employees
12. Ford: 11,000 employees
13. Novo Nordisk: 9,000 employees
14. Microsoft: 7,000 employees
15. PwC: 5,600 employees
16. Dow Chemical: 4,000 employees
17. Block: 4,000 employees
18. Salesforce: 4,000 employees
19. Lufthansa: 4,000 employees
20. Tyson: 3,200 employees
21. IBM: 2,700 employees
22. American Airlines: 2,700 employees
23. Paramount: 2,000 employees
24. Target: 1,800 employees
25. ConocoPhillips: 1,700 employees
26. General Motors: 1,700 employees
27. Applied Materials: 1,444 employees
28. Mastercard: 1,400 employees
29. Kroger: 1,000 employees
30. Meta: 1,000 employees
The big question: What % of these jobs cuts are due to AI?
The NQ continuous contract is would up tighter than a xxxxxx
Comment from the peanut gallery.
NQ continuous contract futures is would up tight in the daily 21, 50, 100 exponential moving averages at the top of a consolidation pattern from the February 6 low with the 200 ema still holding the daily closes at the bottom. The trading action into the 3rd Friday end of quarter will be a battle in the market that will be increasingly influenced by derivatives into March 20.
The 25,000 level seems significant so far in that light.
Also,, CL continuous contract is just under 80.97, the 0.618 retracement back at the March 3rd quarter high in 2022 at 101.9
Things are winding up in many phases, seasonality etc
I closed the gold futures contracts some time ago. Should have cut back more on the miners
Good time to sit back as the markets across a broad spectrum seem bi polar.
Jesse Livermore's most famous quotes emphasize emotional discipline, patience, and following the market's trend, with notable ones including "It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting" and "The stock market is never obvious. It is designed to fool most of the people, most of the time". He stressed cutting losses quickly, avoiding emotional trading based on greed or fear, and only acting when the market confirms one's opinion, not before.
"Trade what you see, not what you think" is a core investment principle often attributed to financier and presidential advisor Bernard Baruch (1870–1965). It emphasizes acting on objective, observable market data rather than subjective opinions, predictions, or "tips".
Comment from the peanut gallery.
NQ continuous contract futures is would up tight in the daily 21, 50, 100 exponential moving averages at the top of a consolidation pattern from the February 6 low with the 200 ema still holding the daily closes at the bottom. The trading action into the 3rd Friday end of quarter will be a battle in the market that will be increasingly influenced by derivatives into March 20.
The 25,000 level seems significant so far in that light.
Also,, CL continuous contract is just under 80.97, the 0.618 retracement back at the March 3rd quarter high in 2022 at 101.9
Things are winding up in many phases, seasonality etc
I closed the gold futures contracts some time ago. Should have cut back more on the miners
Good time to sit back as the markets across a broad spectrum seem bi polar.
Jesse Livermore's most famous quotes emphasize emotional discipline, patience, and following the market's trend, with notable ones including "It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting" and "The stock market is never obvious. It is designed to fool most of the people, most of the time". He stressed cutting losses quickly, avoiding emotional trading based on greed or fear, and only acting when the market confirms one's opinion, not before.
"Trade what you see, not what you think" is a core investment principle often attributed to financier and presidential advisor Bernard Baruch (1870–1965). It emphasizes acting on objective, observable market data rather than subjective opinions, predictions, or "tips".
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This reminds me of the current cabinet
- Alice: A curious, 7-year-old girl who tries to apply logic to an illogical world.
- The White Rabbit: A frantic, time-obsessed creature who leads Alice into Wonderland.
- The Cheshire Cat: A grinning cat that can disappear at will; it provides Alice with cryptic, philosophical advice.
- The Mad Hatter: An eccentric host of a perpetual tea party, representing the historical "mad as a hatter" mercury poisoning common in 19th-century hat making.
- The Queen of Hearts: The tyrannical ruler of Wonderland, famous for her irrational demands to "Off with their heads!".
- The Caterpillar: A hookah-smoking insect who challenges Alice's sense of self and provides the mushroom that controls her size
We can go back and forth on liking one post or another. I don't give a rat's *** about that! The point remains about the factual content in the video, that is undeniable.