Toggle sidebar

The economy

D

Dadar

All-Conference
Dec 21, 2003
4,487
3,393
113
Dadar said:
A struggle today for gamma neutral spreads around the 25,000 NQ march contract and the weekly options expiration at 4 PM ET today. This will become increasingly important with volatility into the 3rd Friday of March end of quarter options and futures expirations.

Early trading showing 0.99 put call ratio on NQ with MNQ showing 1.3+

Some things never change when under the microscope of human actions.

Jesse Livermore's most famous quotes emphasize emotional discipline, patience, and following the market's trend, with notable ones including "It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting" and "The stock market is never obvious. It is designed to fool most of the people, most of the time". He stressed cutting losses quickly, avoiding emotional trading based on greed or fear, and only acting when the market confirms one's opinion, not before.

"Trade what you see, not what you think" is a core investment principle often attributed to financier and presidential advisor Bernard Baruch (1870–1965). It emphasizes acting on objective, observable market data rather than subjective opinions, predictions, or "tips".
Click to expand...
And here we are with NQ march at 25,000 at 3:30 PM ET
 
fatpiggy

fatpiggy

Heisman
Aug 18, 2002
24,003
22,535
113
oil is the biggest risk to the economy right now. Trump will need to wrap this up in a matter of a couple weeks in order to keep inflation under control.

If he gets bogged down, it will slow our economy here and his voters will be very unhappy.

 
  • Like
Reactions: moradatiger70 and Dadar
yoshi121374

yoshi121374

Heisman
Jan 26, 2006
12,875
21,885
113
fatpiggy said:
oil is the biggest risk to the economy right now. Trump will need to wrap this up in a matter of a couple weeks in order to keep inflation under control.

If he gets bogged down, it will slow our economy here and his voters will be very unhappy.

Click to expand...


Wait... You think regime change will happen in a matter of weeks in Iran?

That's ridiculous.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Dadar and Jfcarter3
ANEW

ANEW

All-Conference
Jul 7, 2023
2,181
3,089
113
fatpiggy said:
The road just got a little bit tougher.

Click to expand...

The Trump admin is making big boy moves and wielding US power the way it should be wielded. On all fronts, Diplomatic, Information, Military, Economic, at the same time. Trump is not playing small ball.

edit to add:
Saying we control china's oil supply is a little hyperbolic, but Iran and Venezuela make up a not insignificant part and China was had sweetheart pricing. So we're having an economic impact on them. And the better our relationship is with the other gulf states , the more potential we have to impact a larger percentage of their oil imports.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: fatpiggy
LafayetteBear

LafayetteBear

All-American
Nov 30, 2009
33,414
8,587
113
fatpiggy said:
debateable.

Click to expand...

Howard Lutnick. Just the guy who everyone should be listening to right now.

 
LafayetteBear

LafayetteBear

All-American
Nov 30, 2009
33,414
8,587
113
firegiver said:
What kills me personally about this, is one of my best friends was super duper early on ETH. He literally bought his house with it. Well, he just got laid off due to corporate restructuring. He's got a great severance package but, man, this happening at the same time is killing him. As he still has substantial holdings there.
Click to expand...
What is ETH? My friend Google suggests that it may be something called Etherium.? Is that related to bicoins or bit mining? And what is bit mining?

The foregoing questions perhaps explain why I rely on an investment advisor. :cool:
 
moradatiger70

moradatiger70

All-American
Jul 11, 2013
7,128
9,687
113
Dadar said:
The maga bubble at work with a zombie following. Where does newsmax fall in comparison to catturd and fox?

Newsmax is considered part of the broader right-wing "MAGA bubble," acting as a competitor to Fox News for that specific audience, while often pushing further to the right. While they share a similar audience demographic, the two networks have a contentious, competitive relationship rather than acting as a single, harmonious entity.

  • Relationship to the MAGA Movement: Newsmax grew significantly by catering to viewers who felt Fox News was not sufficiently supportive of former President Donald Trump, particularly following the 2020 election. It is often described as a "pro-Trump" or "MAGA" channel.

Newsmax operates within the same ideological bubble as Fox News, but acts as a more fervent, pro-Trump alternative designed to challenge Fox's dominance in the conservative media market.
Click to expand...
You know, I have no issue with your comment. Then as soon as a left-wing video pops up from a far-left leaning website, you'll be one of the first ones to give it a thumbs up.
Your hypocrisy is tiring realy.
 
  • Like
Reactions: fatpiggy
B

baltimorened

All-Conference
May 29, 2001
5,484
3,986
113
fatpiggy said:
oil is the biggest risk to the economy right now. Trump will need to wrap this up in a matter of a couple weeks in order to keep inflation under control.

If he gets bogged down, it will slow our economy here and his voters will be very unhappy.

Click to expand...

release the reserve
 
  • Like
Reactions: ANEW
firegiver

firegiver

Heisman
Sep 10, 2007
73,349
19,394
113
LafayetteBear said:
What is ETH? My friend Google suggests that it may be something called Etherium.? Is that related to bicoins or bit mining? And what is bit mining?

The foregoing questions perhaps explain why I rely on an investment advisor. :cool:
Click to expand...
Yes Etherium crypto currency. All crypto operates pretty much the same as BTC bitcoin.
 
  • Like
Reactions: fatpiggy
D

Dadar

All-Conference
Dec 21, 2003
4,487
3,393
113
moradatiger70 said:
You know, I have no issue with your comment. Then as soon as a left-wing video pops up from a far-left leaning website, you'll be one of the first ones to give it a thumbs up.
Your hypocrisy is tiring realy.
Click to expand...
If I see something I believe to be true or humorous I will like it. I never post anything from X/Twitter, but that seems to be what is mostly used, so yeah I may like some unknown site post
 
fatpiggy

fatpiggy

Heisman
Aug 18, 2002
24,003
22,535
113
PawPride said:
Also, the apparent insiders who cleaned up on polymarket after making an account right before the attack.
Click to expand...
Been seeing a lot on this. I am split on how I feel. On one hand I think it's bullshvt. On the other I think it should be legal.

I'm going to have AI summarize the argument much better than I can. But Polymarket is not an investment site. It's a prediction site. In order to make the most accurate predictions, insiders need to be allowed to participate. There are no investor protections, because it's not an investment.


Insider trading should be legal in prediction markets because these platforms function primarily as information aggregators rather than capital-raising mechanisms like traditional stock markets. Their core purpose is to surface the most accurate probabilities about future events—such as geopolitical outcomes like the U.S. assault on Iran that killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei—by incentivizing participants to bet real money on what they know or believe will happen. As economist Robin Hanson, often called the godfather of modern prediction markets, argues, the entire point is to elicit and reveal superior information: "The only reason you should ever be trading on them is if you think you have some information." Allowing those with non-public insights—whether from proximity to decision-makers, leaked intelligence, or specialized access—to act on it accelerates the incorporation of that truth into market prices. This makes the odds more reliable and valuable for the public, who increasingly rely on platforms like Polymarket for signals on events ranging from military actions to leadership changes. In the case of bets on Khamenei's fate or related invasion outcomes, insider bets (such as the $553,000 profit on Polymarket) push prices toward reality faster, providing earlier warnings about oil disruptions, Strait of Hormuz risks, or defense implications—benefits that outweigh concerns about individual profits.

Unlike securities markets, where insider trading can undermine investor confidence and capital formation, prediction markets have no equivalent need to protect passive investors or raise funds for companies/governments. They are informational oracles, akin to news outlets or think tanks with skin in the game. Banning insider activity would suppress the very mechanism that drives accuracy: informed traders correcting mispriced contracts.

Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan has framed this as a public good, where "insider trading" enables quicker dissemination of accurate information to the masses. Even Coinbase's Brian Armstrong has noted that if prediction markets serve as oracles for truth, insider participation yields a "higher quality signal."In the Iran strikes context, the scrutiny from lawmakers like Sen. Chris Murphy and Rep. Mike Levin highlights fears of unethical gains or security leaks, but legalizing insider action would channel such knowledge into transparent, auditable prices on platforms (especially blockchain-based ones like Polymarket), reducing hidden asymmetries and encouraging leaks that serve the greater good of public awareness. Prohibitions risk turning these markets into less efficient guessing games dominated by uninformed noise, while permission aligns incentives with their fundamental role: rapid, money-weighted truth discovery amid high-stakes events like bombardments, succession uncertainties, or embassy threats.
 
  • Like
Reactions: TigerGrowls
dpic73

dpic73

Heisman
Jul 27, 2005
29,656
21,882
113


Recent Layoff Announcements:

1. US Government: 300,000 employees
2. UPS: 78,000 employees
3. Amazon: 30,000 employees
4. Intel: 25,000 employees
5. Nissan: 20,000 employees
6. Nestle: 16,000 employees
7. Microsoft: 15,000 employees
8. Bosch: 13,000 employees
9. Verizon: 13,000 employees
10. Dell: 12,000 employees
11. Accenture: 11,000 employees
12. Ford: 11,000 employees
13. Novo Nordisk: 9,000 employees
14. Microsoft: 7,000 employees
15. PwC: 5,600 employees
16. Dow Chemical: 4,000 employees
17. Block: 4,000 employees
18. Salesforce: 4,000 employees
19. Lufthansa: 4,000 employees
20. Tyson: 3,200 employees
21. IBM: 2,700 employees
22. American Airlines: 2,700 employees
23. Paramount: 2,000 employees
24. Target: 1,800 employees
25. ConocoPhillips: 1,700 employees
26. General Motors: 1,700 employees
27. Applied Materials: 1,444 employees
28. Mastercard: 1,400 employees
29. Kroger: 1,000 employees
30. Meta: 1,000 employees

The big question: What % of these jobs cuts are due to AI?
 
D

Dadar

All-Conference
Dec 21, 2003
4,487
3,393
113
This crude oil supply disruption increases the demand for us dollars in global oil trading.

It seems like at the moment the US is the only stable producer
 
D

Dadar

All-Conference
Dec 21, 2003
4,487
3,393
113
dpic73 said:


Recent Layoff Announcements:

1. US Government: 300,000 employees
2. UPS: 78,000 employees
3. Amazon: 30,000 employees
4. Intel: 25,000 employees
5. Nissan: 20,000 employees
6. Nestle: 16,000 employees
7. Microsoft: 15,000 employees
8. Bosch: 13,000 employees
9. Verizon: 13,000 employees
10. Dell: 12,000 employees
11. Accenture: 11,000 employees
12. Ford: 11,000 employees
13. Novo Nordisk: 9,000 employees
14. Microsoft: 7,000 employees
15. PwC: 5,600 employees
16. Dow Chemical: 4,000 employees
17. Block: 4,000 employees
18. Salesforce: 4,000 employees
19. Lufthansa: 4,000 employees
20. Tyson: 3,200 employees
21. IBM: 2,700 employees
22. American Airlines: 2,700 employees
23. Paramount: 2,000 employees
24. Target: 1,800 employees
25. ConocoPhillips: 1,700 employees
26. General Motors: 1,700 employees
27. Applied Materials: 1,444 employees
28. Mastercard: 1,400 employees
29. Kroger: 1,000 employees
30. Meta: 1,000 employees

The big question: What % of these jobs cuts are due to AI?
Click to expand...

To summarize another poster on AI unknowns

We are in a hurry to get somewhere
 
D

Dadar

All-Conference
Dec 21, 2003
4,487
3,393
113
The Asian markets are getting hammered tonight on energy shock
 
D

Dadar

All-Conference
Dec 21, 2003
4,487
3,393
113
The NQ continuous contract is would up tighter than a xxxxxx

Comment from the peanut gallery.

NQ continuous contract futures is would up tight in the daily 21, 50, 100 exponential moving averages at the top of a consolidation pattern from the February 6 low with the 200 ema still holding the daily closes at the bottom. The trading action into the 3rd Friday end of quarter will be a battle in the market that will be increasingly influenced by derivatives into March 20.

The 25,000 level seems significant so far in that light.

Also,, CL continuous contract is just under 80.97, the 0.618 retracement back at the March 3rd quarter high in 2022 at 101.9

Things are winding up in many phases, seasonality etc

I closed the gold futures contracts some time ago. Should have cut back more on the miners

Good time to sit back as the markets across a broad spectrum seem bi polar.


Jesse Livermore's most famous quotes emphasize emotional discipline, patience, and following the market's trend, with notable ones including "It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting" and "The stock market is never obvious. It is designed to fool most of the people, most of the time". He stressed cutting losses quickly, avoiding emotional trading based on greed or fear, and only acting when the market confirms one's opinion, not before.

"Trade what you see, not what you think" is a core investment principle often attributed to financier and presidential advisor Bernard Baruch (1870–1965). It emphasizes acting on objective, observable market data rather than subjective opinions, predictions, or "tips".
 
Last edited:
D

Dadar

All-Conference
Dec 21, 2003
4,487
3,393
113
We are in a market where globex, the global market rotation is at a level of significance similar to the 2008 global credit crisis.
 
  • Like
Reactions: fatpiggy
D

Dadar

All-Conference
Dec 21, 2003
4,487
3,393
113
WTI hit the 0.618 and it seems like 100 is in sight on a break above 81
 
D

Dadar

All-Conference
Dec 21, 2003
4,487
3,393
113
The Strait of Hormouz is currently paralyzed with empty ships on 1 side and ships loaded with crude and lng on the other.

The logistics of escorts and the promise of US covering insurance seems rather flimsy
 
D

Dadar

All-Conference
Dec 21, 2003
4,487
3,393
113
Tomorrow weekly options will once again key in on the 25000 NQ strike
 
D

Dadar

All-Conference
Dec 21, 2003
4,487
3,393
113
This reminds me of the current cabinet

  • Alice: A curious, 7-year-old girl who tries to apply logic to an illogical world.
  • The White Rabbit: A frantic, time-obsessed creature who leads Alice into Wonderland.
  • The Cheshire Cat: A grinning cat that can disappear at will; it provides Alice with cryptic, philosophical advice.
  • The Mad Hatter: An eccentric host of a perpetual tea party, representing the historical "mad as a hatter" mercury poisoning common in 19th-century hat making.
  • The Queen of Hearts: The tyrannical ruler of Wonderland, famous for her irrational demands to "Off with their heads!".
  • The Caterpillar: A hookah-smoking insect who challenges Alice's sense of self and provides the mushroom that controls her size
 
D

Dadar

All-Conference
Dec 21, 2003
4,487
3,393
113
Lutnick is definitely the Mad Hatter, Bressent is the Cheshire Cat, cheeto is the Queen of Hearts
 
  • Haha
Reactions: fatpiggy
D

Dadar

All-Conference
Dec 21, 2003
4,487
3,393
113
Even at these levels and resistence, CL seems like an opportunity window for short term trades currently. Took 4 mcl april contracts long at 81
 
moradatiger70

moradatiger70

All-American
Jul 11, 2013
7,128
9,687
113
Dadar said:
If I see something I believe to be true or humorous I will like it. I never post anything from X/Twitter, but that seems to be what is mostly used, so yeah I may like some unknown site post
Click to expand...
We can go back and forth on liking one post or another. I don't give a rat's *** about that! The point remains about the factual content in the video, that is undeniable.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom