Over the next few weeks, keep your eyes on the Middle East

[GDead_Tiger]

Iraq and Afghanistan are recent and excellent examples of the US military being able to rapidly win the war but the political apparatus backing the military having no plan to win the peace. It's not that the US military doesn't have a literal plan to successfully attack Iran, or that they lack the means to do so, but that the current administration doesn't have any plan in place for what comes after the bombs stop falling. Winning the peace is arguably more important than winning the war.

Yeah I trust the US military to blow stuff up and defeat the opposing military. I trust that plan for the most part. Where things break down is when we start putting soldiers on the ground in larger numbers, especially if we plan a full occupation of the country

 

[ChuckChuck]

I, for the life of me, do not understand this take. I don't know why you think so little of the whole of our civilian and military leadership ship that we do not have a plan. There is most definitely a plan. There has always been a plan. The plan has been in place for decades and gets reviewed and revised regularly. These plans are not and will never be shared with us.

Nevertheless, I understand while many, myself included, may not trust the plan. We have not failed to screw up such plans since the successful conclusion of WWII.

So, you think the plan to cripple Iran involved our sending one carrier to the region?

I think very little of the current civilian leadership in the Department of War nee Defense. I don't think Hegseth has teh aptitude, experience of disposition to lead this effort.

 

[GDead_Tiger]

Reports are that Ali Khamenei's son Mojtaba Khamenei has been elected supreme leader

 

[UrHuckleberry]

Kash Patel also recently fired a number of experts on Iran and counter-espionage. Which isn't great in a vacuum, but the timing suggests that the administration's plan for Iran wasn't being communicated to all the relevant parts.

Kash Patel’s latest firings ousted agents with expertise in Iran

The FBI director gutted a specialized, global espionage unit of counterintelligence agents, just days before Operation Epic Fury.

www.ms.now

Seems more likely it was being communicated, but was disagreed with.

 

[tboonpickens]

Kash Patel also recently fired a number of experts on Iran and counter-espionage. Which isn't great in a vacuum, but the timing suggests that the administration's plan for Iran wasn't being communicated to all the relevant parts.

Kash Patel’s latest firings ousted agents with expertise in Iran

The FBI director gutted a specialized, global espionage unit of counterintelligence agents, just days before Operation Epic Fury.

www.ms.now

absolute moron. this is why people have questions about our plans or lack thereof. we have idiots in leadership positions up and down this cabinet.

not like we could lean on the expertise of agents when it comes to ascertaining heightened Iranian risks home and abroad right now, huh?

 

[P. Marlowe]

As someone who supports the Western liberal order I agree, Russia and Iran aren't acting in the interests of their own people. It's better for the international order to have a secular government operating in some sort of democratic fashion, to transition from a resource-based economy to a knowledge-based one, and to pursue the types of policies that open up their economies and create a healthy middle class. It's in the US (and the world's) interest to have stable and healthy countries which can be relied upon as regional partners. So in that context, yes, they appear to be acting irrationally.

But the authoritarians which rule Russia, Iran, North Korea, and other countries, view their own regimes as the state. It's why a common refrain on Russian media is that "a world without Russia is no world at all" right before they make their hourly quota of threatening nuclear desolation against Ukraine, Europe, and the US. If your entire goal is continuance of the regime, disappearing, imprisoning, and killing dissidents within your borders is a rational act. Creating the specter of a foreign enemy like Russia has with NATO, or Iran with it's 'Great Satan' of the US and Israel (or as I said earlier with the idea of Taiwan existing is more useful to China than actually conquering it) is rational because it creates an other you can blame your countries problem on. IE, we were sanctioned because the US is a villain, not because the regime is becoming geopolitically isolated.

Iran got 30+ years out of funding terror cells in the Middle East to bog down Israel and the US' own military adventurism - gun running to Hamas and Hezbollah is a rational act to give your enemies something to focus on rather than you. Russia sees the former territories of the Russian Tsardom and USSR as rightfully there's - invading to create a buffer zone to protect the cultural heartland of Muscovy is so deeply ingrained in Russia that it's governed their geopolitics for the last 300 years.

The control that an authoritarian regime is able to exert over the apparatus of the state makes them fundamentally the state; therefore they act in the best interest of the state, because that itself is the best interest of the regime. Even when such actions are at the expense of the citizenry, which exist solely to serve the state.

I agree in places like North Korea and Russia. You have generations of systemic authoritarianism and the apathy that creates that have become almost cultural. The state is dictatorial brutality and political theft and concentration of wealth/power. Iran is different IMO. You have multiple generations still alive who remember a very different country. A very different opportunity set. A very different economic situation. Political situation. Etc. you also have a much larger subset of the populace that aren’t apathetic and do want change. That isn’t commentary on the current conflict simply an opinion on why I think the leadership is less entrenched as “the state” there relative to places like the aforementioned.

 

[P. Marlowe]

So, you think the plan to cripple Iran involved our sending one carrier to the region?

I think very little of the current civilian leadership in the Department of War nee Defense. I don't think Hegseth has teh aptitude, experience of disposition to lead this effort.

You keep saying that, but there isn’t just one CSG group there.

 

[leetp]

So, you think the plan to cripple Iran involved our sending one carrier to the region?

I think very little of the current civilian leadership in the Department of War nee Defense. I don't think Hegseth has teh aptitude, experience of disposition to lead this effort.

You mean one carrier strike group? A carrier goes nowhere without a fleet of destroyers and cruisers. One carrier strike group is a massive amount of firepower rivaling that of most Nations. But I'm not sure what your point is.

 

[P. Marlowe]

Kash Patel also recently fired a number of experts on Iran and counter-espionage. Which isn't great in a vacuum, but the timing suggests that the administration's plan for Iran wasn't being communicated to all the relevant parts.

Kash Patel’s latest firings ousted agents with expertise in Iran

The FBI director gutted a specialized, global espionage unit of counterintelligence agents, just days before Operation Epic Fury.

www.ms.now

I’d argue that stems more from migration of responsibility to the CIA and redundancy but I don’t have insight into that beyond that the FBI is not as well equipped or resourced to handle CT/CS of foreign actors. I'd also argue that highlighting uncovering Witt is not an “achievement” I’d view too positively.

 

[MisterWorst]

Reports are that Ali Khamenei's son Mojtaba Khamenei has been elected supreme leader

Lacks the senior clerical rank to be Ayatollah, technically. Is also a hardliner with experience in the security apparatus of the IRGC and Basij. Will be interesting to see how the more conservative factions within the clerics view the dynastic succession, but this pretty much confirms the IRGC are running the show now.

 

[ChuckChuck]

You mean one carrier strike group? A carrier goes nowhere without a fleet of destroyers and cruisers. One carrier strike group is a massive amount of firepower rivaling that of most Nations. But I'm not sure what your point is.

Yeah one strike group. That’s not close the the amount necessary. We had six strike groups for the Iraq War. Point is this was not a plan or thought out.

 

[DaboDaboDoo]

I did two years at El Cid, just throwing that out there if we're keeping score.

Thank you for your service

 

[ChuckChuck]

You keep saying that, but there isn’t just one CSG group there.

We have the Ford in the Med and the Lincoln a decent bit away from strategic targets in the Indian Ocean. That’s it. Against an enormous country with sophisticated defense systems.

 

[MisterWorst]

I agree in places like North Korea and Russia. You have generations of systemic authoritarianism and the apathy that creates that have become almost cultural. The state is dictatorial brutality and political theft and concentration of wealth/power. Iran is different IMO. You have multiple generations still alive who remember a very different country. A very different opportunity set. A very different economic situation. Political situation. Etc. you also have a much larger subset of the populace that aren’t apathetic and do want change. That isn’t commentary on the current conflict simply an opinion on why I think the leadership is less entrenched as “the state” there relative to places like the aforementioned.

Iranian expats have a more favorable view of the Shah given they tend to have been the ones (or descended from) profiting from the regime. The rapid Westernization was seen by the populace as a direct assault on traditional Islamic values and the Iranian cultural identity, and the SAVAK secret police brutally repressed the population. The Carter administration lowered support over the human rights violations and throw in massive wealth inequality despite massive oil wealth in the country and bing bang boom: popular uprising and revolution. CIA should have backed a better horse in 1953 I guess.

The 'legitimacy' of the current regime is for sure weaker in Iran than Russia or NK, but there's the old saying about not quoting the law to the men holding swords. IRGC runs the military, paramilitary, and secret police. They're heavily incentivized to continue repressing the population because their massive amount of control over every aspect of Iran's political and economic machinery is critical for their own survival. It's also why they'll manufacture legitimacy through escalation against external threats like the US and Israel. If you can make the people love you, give them something to hate.

 

[MisterWorst]

Thank you for your service

You're welcome for my service.

 

[ChucktownK]

We have the Ford in the Med and the Lincoln a decent bit away from strategic targets in the Indian Ocean. That’s it. Against an enormous country with sophisticated defense systems.

If they were all that sophisticated, they'd still be there. Anything that emits is destroyed. SAMs don't work so well without the radar.

You don't want the Ford to go through Suez right now.

 

[ChuckChuck]

If they were all that sophisticated, they'd still be there. Anything that emits is destroyed. SAMs don't work so well without the radar.

You don't want the Ford to go through Suez right now.

You’re right. I should have said sophisticated offensive weapons which Iran has plenty of.

 

[P. Marlowe]

You’re right. I should have said sophisticated offensive weapons which Iran has plenty of.

Do they though?

 

[leetp]

[....]. I don't think Hegseth has teh aptitude, experience of disposition to lead this effort.

You don't think so because you don't want to. And I'm not here to try to convince you. That's not what this thread is for. For the umpteenth time, we are suppose to be talking about what's going down in the ME militarily, not politically.

If you want to say you don't trust our ability to stay on task and not engage in nation building, I agree with you. But let's keep that part of the discussion out of this thread. Please.

If you want to debate whether not we were ready militarily, then OK. I think we were, and I think the results bear that out. I think two CSG's, one of them including the Ford, is plenty enough, especially with our advancements in sea-based sensor fusion and missile defense. The Ship Self Defense System (SSDS) together with the AEGIS-equipped Cruisers and Destroyers is more than enough firepower. Updated radar tech, standard missiles and the ability to "fuse" sensors across SSDS and AEGIS platforms with the Cooperative Engagement Capability (CEC) is a force multiplier and are unlike anything went to war in Iraq with, so really hard to do a direct comparison.

 

[ChuckChuck]

Do they though?

Well hell yeah they do. It’s the weaponry they are raining down on Israel and our military bases.

 

[leetp]

We have the Ford in the Med and the Lincoln a decent bit away from strategic targets in the Indian Ocean. That’s it. Against an enormous country with sophisticated defense systems.

....that have all been thoroughly defeated. I am pretty sure we have total air superiority over the skies of Iran.

 

[ChuckChuck]

You don't think so because you don't want to. And I'm not here to try to convince you. That's not what this thread is for. For the umpteenth time, we are suppose to be talking about what's going down in the ME militarily, not politically.

If you want to say you don't trust our ability to stay on task and not engage in nation building, I agree with you. But let's keep that part of the discussion out of this thread. Please.

If you want to debate whether not we were ready militarily, then OK. I think we were, and I think the results bear that out. I think two CSG's, one of them including the Ford, is plenty enough, especially with our advancements in sea-based sensor fusion and missile defense. The Ship Self Defense System (SSDS) together with the AEGIS-equipped Cruisers and Destroyers is more than enough firepower. Updated radar tech, standard missiles and the ability to "fuse" sensors across SSDS and AEGIS platforms with the Cooperative Engagement Capability (CEC) is a force multiplier and are unlike anything went to war in Iraq with, so really hard to do a direct comparison.

What results??? We have not accomplished a thing. We killed some guys. Big deal.

Answer this question: do you think the “plan” called for putting troops in Iran?

 

[leetp]

Well hell yeah they do. It’s the weaponry they are raining down on Israel and our military bases.

It's impossible to stop everything.

 

[nmerritt11]

Well hell yeah they do. It’s the weaponry they are raining down on Israel and our military bases.

you're vastly overrating Iran's military capability. Yes they have some drones and some missiles...mainly short range but not a lot and they'll run out fast. They don't have a quarter of the weaponry of Israel or the US. Add in the allies stepping up to help the to and Iran has zero chance.

China joining Iran is their only hope but there is no way that happens...and even with China they have zero chance against Israel and the US plus others. There is not even a 1/100th of the capability.

You basically have the two strongest military forces and best intelligence in the world teamed up...Iran's abilities are not much of a worry. They are weak in comparison

 

[leetp]

What results??? We have not accomplished a thing. We killed some guys. Big deal.

Answer this question: do you think the “plan” called for putting troops in Iran?

Op Epic Fury has been wildly successful thus far. We've taken out nearly all of the top leadership. We own the skies above Iran and they have been reduced to taking pot shots against fixed targets in hopes something sneaks through.

As for boots on the ground, we 100% have a plan for it. We've always had a plan for it....under Reagan, Bush 1, Clinton, Bush 2, Obama, Biden and now under Trump.

 

[ChuckChuck]

Op Epic Fury has been wildly successful thus far. We've taken out nearly all of the top leadership. We own the skies above Iran and they have been reduced to taking pop shots against fixed targets in hopes something sneaks through.

As for boots on the ground, we 100% have a plan for it. We've always had a plan for it....under Reagan, Bush 1, Clinton, Bush 2, Obama, Biden and now under Trump.

Do you thin Epic Fury considered troops an option? Because that is insanity if you think that the case.

 

[ChuckChuck]

you're vastly overrating Iran's military capability. Yes they have some drones and some missiles...mainly short range but not a lot and they'll run out fast. They don't have a quarter of the weaponry of Israel or the US. Add in the allies stepping up to help the to and Iran has zero chance.

China joining Iran is there only hope but there is no way that happens...and even with China they have zero chance against Israel and the US plus others. There is not even a 1/100th of the capability.

You basically have the two strongest military forces and best intelligence in the world teamed up...Iran's abilities are not much of a worry. They are weak in comparison

Tell that to Tel Aviv right now

 

[P. Marlowe]

Well hell yeah they do. It’s the weaponry they are raining down on Israel and our military bases.

Hit rate isn’t great for such a sophisticated arsenal….

 

[P. Marlowe]

....that's have all been thoroughly defeated. I am pretty sure we have total air superiority over the skies of Iran.

There was vid of F-15s below 5000 ft over Tehran in broad daylight on day 1. Hell, we had A-10s wrecking stuff in the strait of Hormuz (that Iran has supposedly closed) on day 1.

 

[nmerritt11]

Tell that to Tel Aviv right now

if you seriously think Iran has advanced military weapons that compare to the US and Israel, I have a lot of beach front property in Iowa I’ll sell ya.

 

[GDead_Tiger]

Here’s President Trump saying almost everyone we had in mind to run the place is basically dead now lol

 

[P. Marlowe]

Tell that to Tel Aviv right now

Scope of missile launches from Iran to Israel:

Saturday - about 90
Sunday - about 70
Monday - 25
Today - 20

Ben Gurion opening back up for normal operations tonight.

What are we supposed to be telling Tel Aviv?

 

[BigPapaWhit]

Out of curiosity, How many of you Jack Ryan/Tackleberry wannabes read Tom Clancy’s non-fiction stuff?

 

[kidmike41]

Is the talk of boots on the ground just some Sabre rattling?

 

[GDead_Tiger]

Out of curiosity, How many of you Jack Ryan/Tackleberry wannabes read Tom Clancy’s non-fiction stuff?

Non fiction includes Hunt for the Red October

 

[GDead_Tiger]

According to the WSJ, it was a Kuwaiti F/A-18 that shot down the 3 American fighters

 

[GDead_Tiger]

Is the talk of boots on the ground just some Sabre rattling?

I’m not sure. 24 hours ago I thought there was no shot. Now I’m not so sure. I don’t think that was really initially planned. All the build up was for an air campaign. I don’t know if CENTCOM wants to go through with an actual invasion.

That said, as this thing goes on longer and longer without clearly defined objectives or off-ramps, the likelihood of mission creep grows. We will run out of targets sooner rather than later, and who knows how missle/interceptor stores are doing for either side. There is talk of us providing military escort to ships in the strait. All of this leads to the possibility for more flashpoints.

I don’t think we would do a full scale invasion but I could see a limited operation

 

[leetp]

Do you thin Epic Fury considered troops an option? Because that is insanity if you think that the case.

No, I don't think we want to send in troops. I think "the plan" is to take out the leadership and negotiate a peaceful surrender and transition with those that remain. But we absolutely have a plan to send in troops should it come to that.

 

[leetp]

Is the talk of boots on the ground just some Sabre rattling?

Is there talk?

 

[GDead_Tiger]

Is there talk?

Yes. According to Senator Blumenthal the administration talked to some of the leading members of Congress about it.