Lino/Powers/Hrno

[PSAL_Hoops]

I'm talking about being a half court PG, not what they do in transition. Both Francis and JMike usually make the right call there, even if JMike struggles to finish when he makes the right call to take it himself.

You don't need to stick up for Francis when no one criticized him. He's not a pure PG, I didn't say he was selfish or anything, or that he was missing opportunities to dish to the bigs. Totally different conversation on whether we play through the post a couple more times a game, although I don't care who is on the court, make the right play/pass and if the person receiving it screws it up, you get that much closer to that person finding a seat.

You have to factor in all types of passing when assessing distribution skills. J Mike gets blocked / stuffed at the rim - a lot. He’s cut down on making the decision to do that (for good reason - he just doesn’t execute them or draw fouls at a high rate) but he still does it sometimes when there is a better option to make.

Let’s also not overreact to one good game. If J Mike is supposed to be the “better” pure point, then the metrics are pretty telling. Tariq leads the team in assists on the season and for 2/3+ of it he came off the bench and wasn’t being asked to distribute much. J Mike only has 4+ assists in 6 games all season. Tariq had 4+ assists in 6 of our last 8 games since his role has changed.

 

[seansherm]

You have to factor in all types of passing when assessing distribution skills. J Mike gets blocked / stuffed at the rim - a lot. He’s cut down on making the decision to do that (for good reason - he just doesn’t execute them or draw fouls at a high rate) but he still does it sometimes when there is a better option to make.

Let’s also not overreact to one good game. If J Mike is supposed to be the “better” pure point, then the metrics are pretty telling. Tariq leads the team in assists on the season and for 2/3+ of it he came off the bench and wasn’t being asked to distribute much. J Mike only has 4+ assists in 6 games all season. Tariq had 4+ assists in 6 of our last 8 games since his role has changed.

Again, nobody is talking about one game. Yes, Tariq now has more assists than Jmike. Now, let's look at their usage #'s. Roles, they each have a different one. Tariq has the ball, Davis doesn't on this team. Davis uses far fewer possessions but distributes at a high rate while Tariq consumes more possessions but in service of scoring first, then dishing.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Stop acting dumb, nobody is talking total assist numbers. All the guards have that same issue and yet Mark is still 5th or 6th on the team in assist rate/assist per 40/assist per 100 possession, any metric you look at. Francis is at like 2.5 to 1, Davis 3 to 1, even Powers is like 1.5 to 1. The team has been getting assists on roughly 54% of their baskets lately, which while not yet average, is much closer than had been prior, think we are at like 48% for the year. Yes, DB is turnover prone, and he has the same asst/turnover ratio as Mark. Badalou has almost as many assists as Lino.

Stop inflating J Mike. His A / TO ratio is better right this second than Tariq’s by 0.23.

But again - Tariq was playing a different role for most of the season and his TO metrics are vastly inflated by two games where he was put in a position he’s not capable of. He can run the point, but he’s not someone you want breaking pressure in the backcourt without a complimentary ball handler. That’s fine. Just can’t have the 2-4 on the court with him be Zrno, Grant and Denis who can’t handle a lick. 8 of his 33 turnovers came against SHU and Maine. He only had even 3 turnovers in a game one other time this season and he also had 7 assists in that game (PSU),

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Again, nobody is talking about one game. Yes, Tariq now has more assists than Jmike. Now, let's look at their usage #'s. Roles, they each have a different one. Tariq has the ball, Davis doesn't on this team. Davis uses far fewer possessions but distributes at a high rate while Tariq consumes more possessions but in service of scoring first, then dishing.

Doesn’t usage only look at shots? When J Mike is in the game he brings the ball up plenty and has lots of distribution opportunities. That’s simply not true. J Mike’s “usage” is lower because he’s not a play maker and can’t score in as many ways as Tariq. He can’t create for himself or others. What he’s better at than Tariq is single coverage on ball defense and protecting the rock when pressured.

 

[seansherm]

Stop inflating J Mike. His A / TO ratio is better right this second than Tariq’s by 0.23.

But again - Tariq was playing a different role for most of the season and his TO metrics are vastly inflated by two games where he was put in a position he’s not capable of. He can run the point, but he’s not someone you want breaking pressure in the backcourt without a complimentary ball handler. That’s fine. Just can’t have the 2-4 on the court with him be Zrno, Grant and Denis who can’t handle a lick. 8 of his 33 turnovers came against SHU and Maine. He only had even 3 turnovers in a game one other time this season and he also had 7 assists in that game (PSU),

Dude, what is with you, no one is putting Francis down. He's still not a pure PG no matter how much you want to argue.
I was criticizing Lino and you are jumping to Tariq's defense for some reason. None of them are perfect.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Dude, what is with you, no one is putting Francis down. He's still not a pure PG no matter how much you want to argue.

Okay - then neither is J Mike. That’s my only point. J Mike does not create well for others. Absolutely not. At least Tariq is starting to show potential to do this in recent games.

 

[bac2therac]

Rutgers is going to need a portal guard or even 2 better than all 3 of them if the goal is to actually make the ncaa tourney. If the goal is to go 17-14 and make a segment of the fanbase happy that they can watch an entertaining program with no goals like our peers then keeping alll of the same players from this year is the way to go.

 

[seansherm]

Okay - then neither is J Mike. That’s my only point. J Mike does not create well for others. Absolutely not.

I'd say JMike is a pure point, just not an excessively good one. If it makes you feel better to know Tariq is a better basketball player I can say it out loud.

 

[seansherm]

Rutgers is going to need a portal guard or even 2 better than all 3 of them if the goal is to actually make the ncaa tourney. If the goal is to go 17-14 and make a segment of the fanbase happy that they can watch an entertaining program with no goals like our peers then keeping alll of the same players from this year is the way to go.

I tend to agree. I do place PG as 3rd on the need though, but yeah, bringing just these guards back probably ensures no better than your 17-14 note. Is that good enough to put them on the bubble and save Pike for another year? I doubt it.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

I'd say JMike is a pure point, just not an excessively good one. If it makes you feel better to know Tariq is a better basketball player I can say it out loud.

Define “pure point”. Do you simply define it as someone who is better at protecting the basketball under hard core pressure? If that’s your definition then cool - I agree, J Mike is better at that.

I do not think J Mike possesses better court vision, leadership skills, decision making, etc. sorry I don’t see that at all.

 

[seansherm]

Define “pure point”. Do you simply define it as someone who is better at protecting the basketball under hard core pressure? If that’s your definition then cool - I agree, J Mike is better at that.

I do not think J Mike possesses better court vision, leadership skills, decision making, etc. sorry I don’t see that at all.

He definitely is the one I'd want with the ball against pressure, yes, that's a main component of what I want out of my PG. I also do think his leadership is excellent - but I think they are both fine with that aspect and don't know that either of them exhibit better decision making than the other. Tariq provides many WTF moments himself.

 

[Fat Koko]

How can a PG have a decent number of assists with no post up option on offense.....is Dylan Grant supposed to post up and command the ball in mid-post or low post and score .....Are we comfortable saying Mark assists total is 1 to 1 because we arent feeding Ogbole??? Good lord, what are we talking about LOL.

There is literally ONE post up option on the offense and its a 6'5" Darren Buchanan Jr, who can post up, but as soon as he catches the post up, he's turnover prone and teams are immediately sending a double team at him to force him to give up the ball.

The primary amount of assists are based on drive and kick passes hoping Zrno or Powers have a jump shot OR, the occasional Powers drive towards the paint, where he makes a nice bounce pass, hoping Ogbole or Dortch catches it cleanly.

I think we missed about 6 layups vs Washington, should we rewind the tape and count those as potential assists???

Carry on people, these threads are definitely entertaining......not close to accurate, but enjoying the way fans interpret basketball is insanity to me.....we have stat-nerds who cant decipher how many 3 point shot attempts were up against the end of the shot clock or forced up, because there's no inside offense whatsoever, but turn around and call guards poor shooters, as if they're missing wide open shots after others have been double teamed all season long.......

Pick and roll. That is why John Stockton set the NBA careers assist record that may never be broken.

Mulcahy and Cliff were great at it. The current assortment of Rutgers guards and Ogbole either haven't been taught it or can't execute it.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Rutgers is going to need a portal guard or even 2 better than all 3 of them if the goal is to actually make the ncaa tourney. If the goal is to go 17-14 and make a segment of the fanbase happy that they can watch an entertaining program with no goals like our peers then keeping alll of the same players from this year is the way to go.

“Better” in what way? We’re not getting a better scorer than Tariq. He’s up to 11th in the conference.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

He definitely is the one I'd want with the ball against pressure, yes, that's a main component of what I want out of my PG. I also do think his leadership is excellent - but I think they are both fine with that aspect and don't know that either of them exhibit better decision making than the other. Tariq provides many WTF moments himself.

Well that’s pretty misguided. J Mike is more comfortable handling the ball under direct pressure than Dylan Harper was last season. Dylan got his pocket picked more than a time or two. It’s certainly one element of being a PG but court vision is far more important in my opinion. Tariq has improved with this all season long. It helps when you yourself are a threat to score in a variety of ways. In my opinion, J Mike is pretty similar as a player to what he was as a frosh except he’s shooting the ball a bit better.

 

[NickRU714]

How can a PG have a decent number of assists with no post up option on offense.....is Dylan Grant supposed to post up and command the ball in mid-post or low post and score .....Are we comfortable saying Mark assists total is 1 to 1 because we arent feeding Ogbole??? Good lord, what are we talking about LOL.

There is literally ONE post up option on the offense and its a 6'5" Darren Buchanan Jr, who can post up, but as soon as he catches the post up, he's turnover prone and teams are immediately sending a double team at him to force him to give up the ball.

The primary amount of assists are based on drive and kick passes hoping Zrno or Powers have a jump shot OR, the occasional Powers drive towards the paint, where he makes a nice bounce pass, hoping Ogbole or Dortch catches it cleanly.

I think we missed about 6 layups vs Washington, should we rewind the tape and count those as potential assists???

Carry on people, these threads are definitely entertaining......not close to accurate, but enjoying the way fans interpret basketball is insanity to me.....we have stat-nerds who cant decipher how many 3 point shot attempts were up against the end of the shot clock or forced up, because there's no inside offense whatsoever, but turn around and call guards poor shooters, as if they're missing wide open shots after others have been double teamed all season long.......

If only Baye Fall turned out to be the "defensive stopper" and could "get dunks on passes" like some board experts said he would.
Then it would make things much easier on the guards. When they drive and draw defenders.

Someone should probably look up those threads. Would be "definitely entertaining" to see the expert analysis.

 

[seansherm]

“Better” in what way? We’re not getting a better scorer than Tariq. He’s up to 11th in the conference.

He also takes more shots per minute than anyone in the top 25. Tariq is good, no doubt, but we can replace anyone. I prefer not to, but we don't have to be locked onto anyone. It's smarter bringing some guys back because it will be cheaper than the open market.

Well that’s pretty misguided. J Mike is more comfortable handling the ball under direct pressure than Dylan Harper was last season. Dylan got his pocket picked more than a time or two. It’s certainly one element of being a PG but court vision is far more important in my opinion. Tariq has improved with this all season long. It helps when you yourself are a threat to score in a variety of ways. In my opinion, J Mike is pretty similar as a player to what he was as a frosh except he’s shooting the ball a bit better.

Dylan wasn't a great PG, more a lead guard, but also the #2 pick in the draft because he's a better player than almost everyone.
I agree, the main difference in JMikes game is he takes smarter, more efficient shots than he used to. He's also a better shooter than he showed freshman year. He's still not a guy you lean on for offense and never will be.

 

[Zebnatto1!]

How can a PG have a decent number of assists with no post up option on offense.....is Dylan Grant supposed to post up and command the ball in mid-post or low post and score .....Are we comfortable saying Mark assists total is 1 to 1 because we arent feeding Ogbole??? Good lord, what are we talking about LOL.

There is literally ONE post up option on the offense and its a 6'5" Darren Buchanan Jr, who can post up, but as soon as he catches the post up, he's turnover prone and teams are immediately sending a double team at him to force him to give up the ball.

The primary amount of assists are based on drive and kick passes hoping Zrno or Powers have a jump shot OR, the occasional Powers drive towards the paint, where he makes a nice bounce pass, hoping Ogbole or Dortch catches it cleanly.

I think we missed about 6 layups vs Washington, should we rewind the tape and count those as potential assists???

Carry on people, these threads are definitely entertaining......not close to accurate, but enjoying the way fans interpret basketball is insanity to me.....we have stat-nerds who cant decipher how many 3 point shot attempts were up against the end of the shot clock or forced up, because there's no inside offense whatsoever, but turn around and call guards poor shooters, as if they're missing wide open shots after others have been double teamed all season long.......

Yes. I think that with a better front court where receiver of pass curved their angle to receive pass, caught ball cleany, moved to open spot, finished, Assist numbers would be much higher. KP, especially, loves the pocket pass. How can the "forward" not be ready?

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

He also takes more shots per minute than anyone in the top 25.

I’m not sure why per minute data is relevant. He’s ranked 11th in the BIG and takes 13.9 shots a game The top 4 scorers in the BIG attempt +15 shots a game - more chances than him to put up points spread out over more minutes played (likely because their teams have more alternative scoring options which makes what Tariq has done all the more impressive). Beyond this there are 3 others in the top 10 averaging 13.8, 13.7 and 13.4 shot attempts per game.

I’m not sure what you are trying to say. More than half of the top 25 are graduating seniors. Beyond that - guys like Wagler and Steinbach will be lottery picks. There will be very few high majors players in the portal period who averaged over 16 ppg in conference play. We will not be picking up someone who scores as well as Tariq.

 

[seansherm]

I’m not sure why per minute data is relevant. He’s ranked 11th in the BIG and takes 13.9 shots a game The top 4 scorers in the BIG attempt +15 shots a game - more chances than him to put up points spread out over more minutes played (likely because their teams have more alternative scoring options which makes what Tariq has done all the more impressive). Beyond this there are 3 others in the top 10 averaging 13.8, 13.7 and 13.4 shot attempts per game.

I’m not sure what you are trying to say. More than half of the top 25 are graduating seniors. Beyond that - guys like Wagler and Steinbach will be lottery picks. There will be very few high majors players in the portal period who averaged over 16 ppg in conference play. We will not be picking up someone who scores as well as Tariq.

I'm not saying anything other than he shoots more per minute he's out there than everyone else in the top 25. No comment, just a fact.

Pretty sure everyone in the top 10 play at least 5 or 6 more minutes per game. Going to our conversation the other day, they play the number of minutes he, and a couple others should play, but for Pikes not allowing to play through inconsistency and insistence on 11 guys playing. He'd be higher than 11th if so.

 

[Simce91]

Yes. I think that with a better front court where receiver of pass curved their angle to receive pass, caught ball cleany, moved to open spot, finished, Assist numbers would be much higher. KP, especially, loves the pocket pass. How can the "forward" not be ready?

Agreed,

I blame the coaching as much as the player on them not being "ready" for the pass

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

I'm not saying anything other than he shoots more per minute he's out there than everyone else in the top 25. No comment, just a fact.

Pretty sure everyone in the top 10 play at least 5 or 6 more minutes per game. Going to our conversation the other day, they play the number of minutes he, and a couple others should play, but for Pikes not allowing to play through inconsistency and insistence on 11 guys playing. He'd be higher than 11th if so.

I see it differently. In my opinion, it’s remarkable Tariq is as efficient as he is considering how little interior weapons he’s surrounded by and what’s asked of him - he’s the target of every defense since he’s our only true threat and he’s still averaging 17.6. I think we all thought he would a weaker version of Dercack, Acuff etc. and he’s nothing like that. For the most part, his shot selection is excellent considering the astounding rate that he draws shooting fouls at (even on shots away from the rim). The whistle isn’t going to blow every time but Tariq has made the 5th most FTs in the BiG and is top 10 in attempts despite not taking all that many off of intentional foul close out duties (since we’re rarely in the position to close out wins). I simply don’t see how anyone can conclude anything other than that he’s an excellent scorer whose skill set in this regard would be next to impossible to replace in the portal. Considering the surrounding cast he did this with and that this was his first season playing in a BiG program (he played with literally the worst low major D1 players before that) - I see Tariq as the kid who easily has the most year over year potential on the roster. Especially considering his in season growth this year in all facets of the game. Like, not just a small amount. By a landslide. Everyone else has been very up and down and hope is based simply on them being a frosh. No different really than expecting Grant to be a star this year.

To me - Tariq came in as this huge underdog from day one. I don’t understand why more fans aren’t excited that there might be an opportunity to see what he can do if we could add a front court around him. It’s almost as if folks would rather be right about their pre season prophecy for that kid than see him help Rutgers improve. For the longest time everyone preached that he was only able to pick up big numbers because we were playing cupcakes. Now that he’s averaging materially more points, assists, etc. in conference play - the narrative is shifting yet again (I don’t necessarily mean by you). I don’t know what the damn market is and I hate NIL, but if a middle of the road BIg starter commands 1.2 M on average there is no planet where Tariq isn’t “worth a million” as some are suggesting (again - I know not you but your basically saying well if he’s more expensive let’s roll with Powers, J Mike and company and bring in someone else for better value - irationalized by - if those guys had as much opportunity as Tariq their numbers would look different…. No - if those guys were expected to be go tos and targeted by defenses their numbers would likely look worse. It’s the opposite. So again - not directed at you per say but I find the continued hate towards Tariq annoying because I see him as an important key to any hope of Pike turning things around in his “last chance”.

 

[seansherm]

I see it differently. In my opinion, it’s remarkable Tariq is as efficient as he is considering how little interior weapons he’s surrounded by and what’s asked of him - he’s the target of every defense since he’s our only true threat and he’s still averaging 17.6. I think we all thought he would a weaker version of Dercack, Acuff etc. and he’s nothing like that. For the most part, his shot selection is excellent considering the astounding rate that he draws shooting fouls at (even on shots away from the rim). The whistle isn’t going to blow every time but Tariq has made the 5th most FTs in the BiG and is top 10 in attempts despite not taking all that many off of intentional foul close out duties (since we’re rarely in the position to close out wins). I simply don’t see how anyone can conclude anything other than that he’s an excellent scorer whose skill set in this regard would be next to impossible to replace in the portal. Considering the surrounding cast he did this with and that this was his first season playing in a BiG program (he played with literally the worst low major D1 players before that) - I see Tariq as the kid who easily has the most year over year potential on the roster. Especially considering his in season growth this year in all facets of the game. Like, not just a small amount. By a landslide. Everyone else has been very up and down and hope is based simply on them being a frosh. No different really than expecting Grant to be a star this year.

To me - Tariq came in as this huge underdog from day one. I don’t understand why more fans aren’t excited that there might be an opportunity to see what he can do if we could add a front court around him. It’s almost as if folks would rather be right about their pre season prophecy for that kid than see him help Rutgers improve. For the longest time everyone preached that he was only able to pick up big numbers because we were playing cupcakes. Now that he’s averaging materially more points, assists, etc. in conference play - the narrative is shifting yet again (I don’t necessarily mean by you). I don’t know what the damn market is and I hate NIL, but if a middle of the road BIg starter commands 1.2 M on average there is no planet where Tariq isn’t “worth a million” as some are suggesting (again - I know not you but your basically saying well if he’s more expensive let’s roll with Powers, J Mike and company and bring in someone else for better value - irationalized by - if those guys had as much opportunity as Tariq their numbers would look different…. No - if those guys were expected to be go tos and targeted by defenses their numbers would likely look worse. It’s the opposite. So again - not directed at you per say but I find the continued hate towards Tariq annoying because I see him as an important key to any hope of Pike turning things around in his “last chance”.

I get where you are coming from, and Tariq should have earned everyone's respect by now. He's far exceeded anyones expectations. His ability to get to the line is really the big reason - hes getting there at double the rate he did his first two years, otherwise many of his numbers look similar to his freshman year. I do think its fair to wonder if that reverts next year back once defenses have seen him for a full year.

That said, it should be everyone's hope to see him w some more talent around him. If it became a $2M conversation, then I think you have to pause. His scoring is more valuable to a team w aspirations than it will be to a team trying to get to the bubble.

 

[bitnez]

There are so many factors that go into this process now that it’s no longer a binary choice of simply stay/go. To me, Zrno and Powers will be great pieces in a year or two assuming the money makes sense. If you’re telling me we can get better players next year for the same money or we’ll have more money to upgrade at those positions (without sacrificing a true PG and big man) that’s one thing. But if we don’t have the cash to get the PG/big man and wings, I’d rather keep them and put the money into the real needs on this team.

 

[seansherm]

There are so many factors that go into this process now that it’s no longer a binary choice of simply stay/go. To me, Zrno and Powers will be great pieces in a year or two assuming the money makes sense. If you’re telling me we can get better players next year for the same money or we’ll have more money to upgrade at those positions (without sacrificing a true PG and big man) that’s one thing. But if we don’t have the cash to get the PG/big man and wings, I’d rather keep them and put the money into the real needs on this team.

Some of it comes down to team building too. If we can get better players for the same $ than Zrno and Powers, but they are one year only players, does that play a role anymore? Are slightly better players for one year better than players potentially for two more? Is it all completely year to year now?

 

[bitnez]

Some of it comes down to team building too. If we can get better players for the same $ than Zrno and Powers, but they are one year only players, does that play a role anymore? Are slightly better players for one year better than players potentially for two more? Is it all completely year to year now?

Agree but you can’t count on building a roster over 2-3 year period unless you’re absolutely certain those guys are committed to you and the program. And it can’t simply be that they won’t leave because they have nowhere to go. You have to hope they’re players with options who opt to stay.

 

[NickRU714]

Some of it comes down to team building too. If we can get better players for the same $ than Zrno and Powers, but they are one year only players, does that play a role anymore? Are slightly better players for one year better than players potentially for two more? Is it all completely year to year now?

Are Zrno and Powers getting less money because their role and expected production will be less than the better 1 year transfer?

You can't overpay Powers and Zrno just because they maybe will be here a 2nd year and hopefully develop.

Its not year to year.
But money and production are.
Would you give Powers a guaranteed 3 year contract and overpay in years 1 and 2 just to hope Year 3 is worth it?

Or spend the same money for better players actually worth it each year,?

 

[seansherm]

Are Zrno and Powers getting less money because their role and expected production will be less than the better 1 year transfer?

You can't overpay Powers and Zrno just because they maybe will be here a 2nd year and hopefully develop.

Its not year to year.
But money and production are.
Would you give Powers a guaranteed 3 year contract and overpay in years 1 and 2 just to hope Year 3 is worth it?

Or spend the same money for better players actually worth it each year,?

Can't afford to overpay anyone. It seems common that it cost less to keep players than to find equivalent new. RU can't buy a new roster each year wo looking like this year. A coach like Pike needs some continuity.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

I get where you are coming from, and Tariq should have earned everyone's respect by now. He's far exceeded anyones expectations. His ability to get to the line is really the big reason - hes getting there at double the rate he did his first two years, otherwise many of his numbers look similar to his freshman year. I do think its fair to wonder if that reverts next year back once defenses have seen him for a full year.

That said, it should be everyone's hope to see him w some more talent around him. If it became a $2M conversation, then I think you have to pause. His scoring is more valuable to a team w aspirations than it will be to a team trying to get to the bubble.

I hear you - but on the last part, I’m not sure that’s true. We don’t really know what the extent of Tariq’s potential would be playing in our system with a couple significant frontcourt additions. My definition of significant isn’t the unrealistic one some of our fans keep circling back to either. Look at MJ’s stat line at UCLA. Every halfway decent center in the NIL era costs a pretty penny, but MJ’s numbers from that season would not command top dollar. He wasn’t some kind of unicorn. There will be lots of serviceable big men looking to play a bigger role in the portal. This current team would, in fact, be a lot better with an MJ on it. If you added a Caleb / Mag type too it would be still better. Again - not guys whose underclass metrics would’ve commanded top dollar. It’s up to Pike to navigate the portal and convince players like this to come play for us next season. He had no chance last season when we started with nothing and it’s far from a given he can do it this time either even if he’s able to retain Tariq. But there’s at least a chance…

Rolling with only a collection of frosh that he hopes will take off as rising stars (the way he hoped Grant would this year) and hoping to buy everything else from scratch in the portal doesn’t seem realistic for Pike to me. Our offense right now begins and ends with TF, like it or not. Lose him and we are once again headed down mish mosh lane and not in position to target our focus on fixing the D.

 

[RUfan1977]

I really don’t get this idea that mark “clearly has the most upside”. A few others have stated similar.

the kid can’t shoot!!!! And haven’t we learned by now (since we have a LOOONG LOOOOONG history of scrappy small guards that can’t shoot) that they don’t just miraculously develop a good shot.

And it’s not like he’s this great point who facilitates the offense - setting guys up to score with great assists.

he’s a quick scrappy guard who gets some layups…..we have had dozens of guards like him over the last few decades.

I don’t see it at all.

powers - imho - has a lot more POTENTIAL to grow into something. While his shooting percentage isn’t great yet - one can see the form - and he makes good passes. Plays good D. I see SOOOO much more upside with him.

Lino Mark definitely didn’t show his shooting ability at the beginning of this year. However, he shot 48% from the field in high school and almost 40% from 3. He is also incredibly fast and is learning to use fakes much better. As he grows more used to college basketball, he is probably going to become incredibly difficult to guard. Would love to see him stay because he is fun to watch and will likely become a star!

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Can't afford to overpay anyone. It seems common that it cost less to keep players than to find equivalent new. RU can't buy a new roster each year wo looking like this year. A coach like Pike needs some continuity.

How would you define “overpay”? I define it as - can we get someone for less money who we can reasonably assume will be able to replace said player’s proven production.

It is for this reason why I think Zrno and Powes are both potentially dispensable if their ask prices are too high. What we can’t afford to do in my opinion is pay a premium for “potential” because a player is a frosh so we therefore assume they will take strides based on flashes shown in a few nice games.

 

[seansherm]

I hear you - but on the last part, I’m not sure that’s true. We don’t really know what the extent of Tariq’s potential would be playing in our system with a couple significant frontcourt additions. My definition of significant isn’t the unrealistic one some of our fans keep circling back to either. Look at MJ’s stat line at UCLA. Every halfway decent center in the NIL era costs a pretty penny, but MJ’s numbers from that season would not command top dollar. He wasn’t some kind of unicorn. There will be lots of serviceable big men looking to play a bigger role in the portal. This current team would, in fact, be a lot better with an MJ on it. If you added a Caleb / Mag type too it would be still better. Again - not guys whose underclass metrics would’ve commanded top dollar. It’s up to Pike to navigate the portal and convince players like this to come play for us next season. He had no chance last season when we started with nothing and it’s far from a given he can do it this time either even if he’s able to retain Tariq. But there’s at least a chance…

Rolling with only a collection of frosh that he hopes will take off as rising stars (the way he hoped Grant would this year) and hoping to buy everything else from scratch in the portal doesn’t seem realistic for Pike to me. Our offense right now begins and ends with TF, like it or not. Lose him and we are once again headed down mish mosh lane and not in position to target our focus on fixing the D.

Here's the thing, even with Francis scoring ability we are one of the worst offenses in the country so does it matter? Yes, adding defense helps and alleviates some of the need to score so much. It doesn't make it easier for TF to not be focused on though. We desperately need two way players.

 

[seansherm]

How would you define “overpay”? I define it as - can we get someone for less money who we can reasonably assume will be able to replace said player’s proven production.

It is for this reason why I think Zrno and Powes are both potentially dispensable if their ask prices are too high. What we can’t afford to do in my opinion is pay a premium for “potential” because a player is a frosh so we therefore assume they will take strides based on flashes shown in a few nice games.

We agree here, my assumption is veteran replacements will cost more, not less. You can't go into each year with 7 freshman anymore, OLD wins.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Are Zrno and Powers getting less money because their role and expected production will be less than the better 1 year transfer?

You can't overpay Powers and Zrno just because they maybe will be here a 2nd year and hopefully develop.

Its not year to year.
But money and production are.
Would you give Powers a guaranteed 3 year contract and overpay in years 1 and 2 just to hope Year 3 is worth it?

Or spend the same money for better players actually worth it each year,?

The pink elephant in the room across the board is which portal players in a position group (or “role” to be filled on the team) can you actually get to replace a player in your program with and at what price point. That’s the question to ask.

The reason I agree with you on Zrno and Powers is that we CAN reasonably expect that a) we would be able to have our pick of 10-12ish ppg shooting guards from low major conferences in the portal with comparably poor metrics for a low price tag and b) most, though not all, of those guys could come close to putting up 6.5 ppg if we gave them 17-20 mpg. I have no idea what the price point will be for SGs like this from Patriot type leagues but I don’t think we should be offering more than a 100K premium on that amount and even that seems high.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Here's the thing, even with Francis scoring ability we are one of the worst offenses in the country so does it matter? Yes, adding defense helps and alleviates some of the need to score so much. It doesn't make it easier for TF to not be focused on though. We desperately need two way players.

We need a front court. Period.

A lot changes on both ends for us if we have that. MJ and Caleb had ugly as hell offensive stat lines at various points in their RU careers. These guys would help us a ton. MJ didn’t have pretty moves but he had to be accounted for and was a force on the glass. Caleb wasn’t efficient but could put up points and helped hide defensive weaknesses of others. This is what we need. If we lose Tariq we need a whole lot more than this on offense.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

We agree here, my assumption is veteran replacements will cost more, not less. You can't go into each year with 7 freshman anymore, OLD wins.

Who ya taking?

Zrno - 500K
Wyatt Nausadis (American) - 200K

Before you point to competition, I chose this kid because of these scoring stats against better teams - “played up” similar to Zrno:

WF - 22
Rutgers - 11
GW - 14
VCU - 17
Virginia - 4

I don’t know that the question can even be answered in a vacuum. Thr point I’m trying to present here is that it’s reasonable to expect we’d be able to pick up a kid like Wyatt in the portal for dirt cheap. There are so many of them and it probably wouldn’t be too much of a drop off in production because an open 3 is an open 3 at all levels. If a kid lik Wyatt played 20 mpg for us he’d probably score 5-6 or so points or more. Thats true of most SGs - the question is whether their D is good enough to see the floor. We can’t have PJ level. I know nothing about Wyatt but I’m guessing there are going to be kids out there that Pike would safely assume could match Zrno’s D.

You simply can’t present an argument like this with Tariq which is why it’s bananas for anyone to suggest he’s “not worth a million dollars to us”. You can’t look to a low major conference for Tariq’s replacement because at least 9 out of 10 times your not getting anything close to what Tariq turned out like for us. Your getting a Jordan Dercack or worse. The problem for us is that when you start shopping amongst better conferences for high production portal players the competition gets steeper and steeper and the price tag keeps going up and up. Anyone we would bring in (or combination thereof) would be a major reach in hoping someone taking major strides and stepping up in a big way.

 

[seansherm]

We need a front court. Period.

A lot changes on both ends for us if we have that. MJ and Caleb had ugly as hell offensive stat lines at various points in their RU careers. These guys would help us a ton. MJ didn’t have pretty moves but he had to be accounted for and was a force on the glass. Caleb wasn’t efficient but could put up points and helped hide defensive weaknesses of others. This is what we need. If we lose Tariq we need a whole lot more than this on offense.

Yes, a Miles and a Caleb would help, but also need a Ron Harper next to Tariq's JY act. Can't have just one.

 

[LeapinLou]

There are so many factors that go into this process now that it’s no longer a binary choice of simply stay/go. To me, Zrno and Powers will be great pieces in a year or two assuming the money makes sense. If you’re telling me we can get better players next year for the same money or we’ll have more money to upgrade at those positions (without sacrificing a true PG and big man) that’s one thing. But if we don’t have the cash to get the PG/big man and wings, I’d rather keep them and put the money into the real needs on this team.

Yeah, I'm in the same boat. A lot of really smart people on these boards think we need a better point guard. I'd much rather put the money into a center and a wing. I think we can win with the guards we have. It will be interesting to see how this unfolds.

 

[seansherm]

Who ya taking?

Zrno - 500K
Wyatt Nausadis (American) - 200K

Before you point to competition, I chose this kid because of these scoring stats against better teams - “played up” similar to Zrno:

WF - 22
Rutgers - 11
GW - 14
VCU - 17
Virginia - 4

I don’t know that the question can even be answered in a vacuum. Thr point I’m trying to present here is that it’s reasonable to expect we’d be able to pick up a kid like Wyatt in the portal for dirt cheap. There are so many of them and it probably wouldn’t be too much of a drop off in production because an open 3 is an open 3 at all levels. If a kid lik Wyatt played 20 mpg for us he’d probably score 5-6 or so points or more. Thats true of most SGs - the question is whether their D is good enough to see the floor. We can’t have PJ level. I know nothing about Wyatt but I’m guessing there are going to be kids out there that Pike would safely assume could match Zrno’s D.

You simply can’t present an argument like this with Tariq which is why it’s bananas for anyone to suggest he’s “not worth a million dollars to us”. You can’t look to a low major conference for Tariq’s replacement because at least 9 out of 10 times your not getting anything close to what Tariq turned out like for us. Your getting a Jordan Dercack or worse. The problem for us is that when you start shopping amongst better conferences for high production portal players the competition gets steeper and steeper and the price tag keeps going up and up. Anyone we would bring in (or combination thereof) would be a major reach in hoping someone taking major strides and stepping up in a big way.

I don't think Zrno would or should be close to $500K, so we are in trouble if he is.

I can't pretend to have even heard of a Wyatt Nausadis, but he basically seems to be American's smaller, less effective Zrno, or their Powers since he's the same size? He's scoring 6 a game for American since December started vs Zrno's 8 for us. Shooting a lower % on much less volume. Seems to be playing less now than he was earlier in the year. Not sure a year older he translates up and gives the same output.

Your point is why I prefer most youth back, you have no idea what you are getting from lower levels and our youth shouldn't be expensive to keep. If it is, you let it walk, but it's all got to be relative to value.

I think Francis is worth $1M to us if the budget is $9-$10M. I had recently guessed this year and was told Grant was more like $400K, so DB may have been a little higher. If you double guys like Zrno, Powers, Mark if you can get him back, up TF to $1M, Buchannon at say $750, it puts around $3.45 for 5 guys. $2.5M for a center, $1.5 for each a forward and ball handling wing? $9M for 8, and fill in the roster with the last $1m, Wooten or Wooten replaces Mark if he's gone? Maybe still not enough height?

Tariq Francis $ 350,000
Dylan Grant $ 600,000
Darren Buchanan Jr. $ 600,000
Harun Zrno $ 200,000
Jamichael Davis $ 300,000
Kaden Powers $ 200,000
Angelino Mark $ 200,000
Emmanuel Ogbole $ 250,000
Denis Badalau $ 200,000
Bryce Dortch $ 300,000
Christopher Nwuli $ 200,000
Baye Fall $ 200,000
Gevonte Ware $ 150,000
$ 3,750,000

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Yes, a Miles and a Caleb would help, but also need a Ron Harper next to Tariq's JY act. Can't have just one.

Yeah, agreed. But I would take a chance there with a low major in place of Grant (I don’t think the D could get much worse). I’d take either of the forwards on CC in his place to fill that role. I don’t think we’d be taking a major risk of drop off and would probably “save” money.

My thinking was that a Caleb type (soph or true Jr season) wouldn’t cost more than a Zrno or a Powers. Weak metrics.

Then the center will be the biggest ticket guy along with whatever it takes to keep Tariq. If we don’t take Tariq, replacing what he brings on offense suddenly has to become a focal point and no matter what we do it’s a gamble. I just don’t think we’re going to have much chance against high major proven scorers. Too much competition amongst teams with better recent track records.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

I don't think Zrno would or should be close to $500K, so we are in trouble if he is.

I can't pretend to have even heard of a Wyatt Nausadis, but he basically seems to be American's smaller, less effective Zrno, or their Powers since he's the same size? He's scoring 6 a game for American since December started vs Zrno's 8 for us. Shooting a lower % on much less volume. Seems to be playing less now than he was earlier in the year. Not sure a year older he translates up and gives the same output.

Your point is why I prefer most youth back, you have no idea what you are getting from lower levels and our youth shouldn't be expensive to keep. If it is, you let it walk, but it's all got to be relative to value.

I think Francis is worth $1M to us if the budget is $9-$10M. I had recently guessed this year and was told Grant was more like $400K, so DB may have been a little higher. If you double guys like Zrno, Powers, Mark if you can get him back, up TF to $1M, Buchannon at say $750, it puts around $3.45 for 5 guys. $2.5M for a center, $1.5 for each a forward and ball handling wing? $9M for 8, and fill in the roster with the last $1m, Wooten or Wooten replaces Mark if he's gone? Maybe still not enough height?

Tariq Francis $ 350,000
Dylan Grant $ 600,000
Darren Buchanan Jr. $ 600,000
Harun Zrno $ 200,000
Jamichael Davis $ 300,000
Kaden Powers $ 200,000
Angelino Mark $ 200,000
Emmanuel Ogbole $ 250,000
Denis Badalau $ 200,000
Bryce Dortch $ 300,000
Christopher Nwuli $ 200,000
Baye Fall $ 200,000
Gevonte Ware $ 150,000
$ 3,750,000

That doesn’t sound right. I think Zrno got more.

Yes, a Miles and a Caleb would help, but also need a Ron Harper next to Tariq's JY act. Can't have just one.

Cool. I’ll swap Grant for either one of the CC forwards (just throwing out an example). Save several hundred thousand and it will probably be an upgrade. That need is an example of a spot we can afford to take a chance on a low major stepping up.

We can afford to do this at positions where the defense can’t get any worse and the offense provided is only complementary. We cannot afford to take a chance on letting our one proven go to scorer leave because our only chance of landing another one will be hoping to hit on another unicorn. And yes - Tariq is a unicorn in that it is EXTREMELY rare that a player transferring up from the American East to the BIg becomes more efficient. It’s that or hoping our own or portal transfer role players step up and make major strides.