OT: Spring Warmth, 3/5-3/12+? Winter 2025-26 - Patterns and Potential Winter Storms
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Well, the Monday threat is looking a lot less likely as most models have trended south and weaker. At 0Z last night, only the CMC brought some snow to our area (1-3" on Monday) and as of 6Z this morning, only the Euro-AIFS is bringing some snow (2-3" on Monday) to our area. Still 4 days out, so the threat isn't dead, especially given that the NWS is still kind of bullish on some snow and given what we saw with the blizzard, where 3 days out all but the GFS were showing little to no snow for us, but even if this one somehow becomes a hit, we're still likely only talking about a 2-4/3-6" event, not a major storm.
The threat for tonight is dead, but there is a chance for a little snow on Sunday morning (1" or so) and there is the chance of snow to rain Tuesday night with mostly rain for 95 and the coast, but could be a few inches of snow well inland before mixing/changing to rain. Pretty far out though.
Finally, here's what bac and many of you have been waiting for. If the Euro and some other models are right, spring arrives next Thursday. These are temps for Philly - they're only a little lower for CNJ, although some other models delay the warmth until next weekend, but all of them have it getting into the 70s by then. Numerous times this winter, warmth has been advertised on the models 9-10 days out only to have that warmth muted, but this one looks real.
Looks like a good time to shut down this thread!
Not yet. Mid/late March and even early April once every 10 years or so, can deliver snow...
I was just getting ready to compliment you on your March warm-up post, then I see this...
Did you want me to lie to make you feel better? C'mon, I even changed the thread title - it's just that it's too hard to predict beyond 2-3 weeks...
We're all aware that freak storms can happen then, but it's not the norm. Given the way this winter has panned out, read the room.
What's the timing of the storm if it occurs? Is it still likely to swing south of us, and would that area (mid-Atlantic region) get snow or rain?
Probably pretty fast if we don't get any significant reinforcements and if that warm-up pans out later next week. Thankfully there was no deep freeze after this event and it doesn't look like there will be any in the near future.
The snow on the ground should all be gone by about 3/5, IMO - unless we get a significant snowfall early next week, which might push that back a couple of days or it might be gone a day or two earlier if we get significant rainfall next week (could be mostly rain for many on Weds).
I did pretty well predicting that the 1/25 snowpack would last for 3-4 weeks given the forecast cold and the high QPF/high density/low surface area sleetcrete cap slowing melting and ours had just reached 1-2" left on Sunday, 4 weeks later, while there was still 1" in NB through last Friday, 2/20.
And, as I posted elsewhere, the recent snow has a fairly similar frozen QPF (I had 1.9" QPF on 1/25 and guessing 2.0" for this storm with 21" of snow) as 1/25, but should melt much more easily as it's all snow and we're going to have much warmer temps vs. post-1/25, plus the late Feb sun. That's why my guess has been that the snow from this storm would only last about 10-11 days and be gone by late next week (assuming no significant snow or rain) - and if not for the mini cold snap this Sunday through Tues it would melt even faster.
Most models show it going south of us and it being fairly weak. The only model showing significant snow is the Euro-AIFS which puts down 2-5" for most from about 6 am through 4 pm, meaning some of that is likely to melt in the early March indirect sun. A couple of models show a few to several inches of snow for VA/MD/DE during that time, but others show little to no snow (mostly rain or not much precip).
I'm not talking about freak storms at all (except maybe April). March is snowier, on average than December, although snow after about 3/20 is much less frequent than snow the first week of March. We had 25-30" of snow for most in March/April 2018, inculding 8-12" on 3/21/18, plus we had about 12" in March 2017 and 10" in March 2019; on the other hand we've had maybe 5-6" of total snow over the last 6 Marches, so who knows. I'm not much interested in reading rooms - my focus is on sharing relevant and hopefully accurate info.
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With no significant snow on tap anymore, I think my guess of 3/5 for it being all gone will be close, especially if we get some rain; maybe 3/6 or 3/7 if little rain, as we should be in the 60s for the weekend. We still have 6-8" of snow on most of our property, as it's somewhat shady; the sunny properties in town are down to 1-2" in spots and bare ground in others. NB is down to 5" left, officially.
While it was one of the coldest and snowiest meteorological winters (Dec/Jan/Feb) in decades in much of the NE US and especially in the Philly-NJ-NYC area, as I'm sure most are aware of, it turns out it was the 2nd warmest winter on record (since 1895-96) in the 48 contiguous US states.
See the first two graphics from the NWS-Philly, detailing the extent of the cold and snow in their major climate locations and as an aside, our 53.5" of snow here in Metuchen was the 3rd most in our 32 years here (behind 95-96 and 2013-14). But the 3rd graphic shows just how much warmer it was than normal across most of the US, especially for the western 2/3 of the nation.
See the first two graphics from the NWS-Philly, detailing the extent of the cold and snow in their major climate locations and as an aside, our 53.5" of snow here in Metuchen was the 3rd most in our 32 years here (behind 95-96 and 2013-14). But the 3rd graphic shows just how much warmer it was than normal across most of the US, especially for the western 2/3 of the nation.
I declare the winter of snow 2026 officially closed.
Nothing historic about snow totals and winter's avg temperature in Philly. But the combination of the January storm and the bitter cold was brutal.
Just a heads up on a minor risk of wintry travel tomorrow morning in our area, as <1" of snow and perhaps a glaze of freezing rain are possible from about 5-10 am for the counties in blue under advisories, generally along/NW of 95. I doubt anywhere south of 78 will see much snow at all - the brief risk of freezing rain is the reason for the advisories (as advisories are typically for 2-3+ inches of snow, when it's all/mostly snow).
https://www.weather.gov/phi
https://www.weather.gov/phi
Depends on one's definition. The winter season severity index shows that Philly's winter was rated "extreme" which means its combination of snow, snow cover and cold placed it in the top 20% of all winters for severity, i.e., it was more severe than 80%+ of winters in Philly's history. I'd say that's historic, but some might think it has to be top 5 or 10 instead of top 30. I don't have the full set of rankings to know exactly where Philly sits (yet - looking for it).
chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/apme/54/8/jamc-d-14-0217.1.pdf
You are stretching the meaning of historic. Both of the storms we had this winter are not historic in Philadelphia. Not even close. The total amount of snow isn't historic either. Avg temperature are the lowest in 10 years. Far from historic.
A memorable winter, of course but not historic.
I travel the world. But this is a weather thread so you have to have a base city for discussion. Others talk about where they area living.
I recognize that, but some location outside of Philadelphia may have experienced record snowfall for a given storm or the season. Or maybe not. But you can't debate based on one location. Well, you can if you choose.
I made it clear I was specifically talking about Philadelphia. I'm not arguing about other locations. You seem to be the guy arguing to include other locations.
You're right - I apologize. I re-read the thread. I am more interested in the region beyond Philadelphia, a fine city BTW. Although not necessarily historic, Numbers makes the case for it ranking among one of Philly's crappier winters, so there's that.
Aren't all winters crappy? He is projecting Metuchen on to the entire tri state area.
I propose we just have 1 thread on the board and each time someone has a thought or wants to post something of interest we just change the thread title. This way no one will miss any posts.
Weather Channel shows 79 IMBY for next Wednesday.