OT: Stock and Investment Thread

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,840
9,239
113
competition especially Google’s TPUs holding NVDA back, not to mention circular deals. There will be a tipping point where the market is flooded with chips and oversupply brings these companies back to earth.
My favorite pick right now is Corning GLW. Unfortunately I missed most of the recent run up because I took too long to pull the trigger. Copper prices/supply will drive companies to fiber. Player in Data center buildouts. Telcos noted fiber supply/prices an issue which I took as a GLW green light.
But they ran up into the print? And sold off after it reported monster earnings, which beat expectations. What was the market looking for?

Currently 22x fwd earnings, on what is expected to be 60+% eps growth.
 

RUAldo

All-Conference
Sep 11, 2008
5,011
3,580
113
But they ran up into the print? And sold off after it reported monster earnings, which beat expectations. What was the market looking for?

Currently 22x fwd earnings, on what is expected to be 60+% eps growth.
Isn’t this usually the case with the most recent quarters = run up into print and then sell off? I also think there are a lot of custom algos and traders tied to directly to NVDA’s price action.
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,874
19,847
113
competition especially Google’s TPUs holding NVDA back, not to mention circular deals. There will be a tipping point where the market is flooded with chips and oversupply brings these companies back to earth.
My favorite pick right now is Corning GLW. Unfortunately I missed most of the recent run up because I took too long to pull the trigger. Copper prices/supply will drive companies to fiber. Player in Data center buildouts. Telcos noted fiber supply/prices an issue which I took as a GLW green light.
Definitely not Google. Its TPUs are vastly inferior compared to Blackwell and Rubin. Not even close to the H200s. Google continues to buy NVDA chips hand over fist.

Copper prices might go to $10. Buy COPX and COPJ and chill. IE if you want more spice!
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,874
19,847
113
But they ran up into the print? And sold off after it reported monster earnings, which beat expectations. What was the market looking for?

Currently 22x fwd earnings, on what is expected to be 60+% eps growth.
I read that the day after sell off was due to options positioning by the hedge funds and market moves. Made sense, I will try to find the article. As for Friday, just due to the PPI print.
 

RUAllen4

Redshirt
Jul 8, 2025
4
2
3
Definitely not Google. Its TPUs are vastly inferior compared to Blackwell and Rubin. Not even close to the H200s. Google continues to buy NVDA chips hand over fist.

Copper prices might go to $10. Buy COPX and COPJ and chill. IE if you want more spice!
But they're available and probably good enough for some use cases.
 

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,840
9,239
113
Isn’t this usually the case with the most recent quarters = run up into print and then sell off? I also think there are a lot of custom algos and traders tied to directly to NVDA’s price action.
For NVDA? Yes. So this sell off may not mean a whole lot.

For tech overall recently? I think so. And that is more concerning imo.
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,874
19,847
113


Chris Verrone, purely off the technicals, thinks silver is a sell here. Gold is meh, and Copper is where to be.

Great show.

Check out the Druck interview I posted above. He’s very bullish on copper as well. I have no idea what silver will do next, but gold will continue to grind higher over the next 3 years (Trump’s term) as nations use it to hedge against the dollar.
 

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,840
9,239
113
Check out the Druck interview I posted above. He’s very bullish on copper as well. I have no idea what silver will do next, but gold will continue to grind higher over the next 3 years (Trump’s term) as nations use it to hedge against the dollar.
Verrone's take on gold was it will chop for 6 months, (I think in the context of an overall upward trend), which could align with the 3 year grind higher.
 
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T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,874
19,847
113
Verrone's take on gold was it will chop for 6 months, (I think in the context of an overall upward trend), which could align with the 3 year grind higher.
Absolutely possible for gold to have multiple extended periods of chop over the next 3 years. Both thoughts align quite well.
 
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RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,840
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So do we trade oil if it rips tomorrow, and look to buy back at a lower price in a week or two?
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,874
19,847
113
So do we trade oil if it rips tomorrow, and look to buy back at a lower price in a week or two?
Not sure, depends on the rip. I took profit with my SLB and XOM calls already, but still holding a ton of energy.....XLE calls, WMB calls, DNN calls, and 8-10 stock positions. The tankers are absolutely ripping:
NAT, FRO, NMM, and many others.

I assume the uncertainty with Iran might linger for a while? Unless a western-friendly leader takes control rather quickly.
 
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RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,840
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Not sure, depends on the rip. I took profit with my SLB and XOM calls already, but still holding a ton of energy.....XLE calls, WMB calls, DNN calls, and 8-10 stock positions. The tankers are absolutely ripping:
NAT, FRO, NMM, and many others.

I assume the uncertainty with Iran might linger for a while? Unless a western-friendly leader takes control rather quickly.
I'm seeing WTI up 4.5% to $70.

Gold up 2%

Silver up 1%
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,874
19,847
113
I'm seeing WTI up 4.5% to $70.

Gold up 2%

Silver up 1%
My gold futures are trading at $5371, but opened higher, so a little fading. I would love to see oil stick above $70, but the news cycle is lighting quick these days.

What gold exposure do you have? Gold, copper, and oil/energy continue to roll.
 

Bueller

Junior
Nov 28, 2025
292
271
63
I'm seeing WTI up 4.5% to $70.

Gold up 2%

Silver up 1%


Silver was slammed but buyers didn't waver much. Now cartel violence is taking place in silver mining area (Mex largest silver producer). Cartels were already going mafia on mines. Now add Iraq and large oil production being threatened. China and India easing off LME , talk that Shanghai shortages could cause ‘force majeure’ price shocks. Some say miner stocks more attractive.


Precious metals boom catches the attention of organized crime in Mexico​

Local and foreign mining companies are forced to pay protection money or hire suppliers linked to their extortionists in order to operate

5mrh38o7fllg1345.jpg
 

RU-05

Redshirt
Mar 2, 2026
70
37
18
My gold futures are trading at $5371, but opened higher, so a little fading. I would love to see oil stick above $70, but the news cycle is lighting quick these days.

What gold exposure do you have? Gold, copper, and oil/energy continue to roll.
JNUG is my big gold holding. Had to endure awhile as it chopped and thus trimmed way early as it started to break out but overall still a great winner for me.

just sold SVM. 200%. And a penny stock silvet miner at like 27%.

Still own AEM.

own COPJ, IE, both of which have been merely OK relative to the big players. Just bought RIO. Probably should buy SCCO or FCX but as both have been ripping.
 
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T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,874
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Check out AVAV's chart today! Up crazy in the morning due to the conflict, but crashed after a negative report from Raymond James. It was almost a 40% swing from top to bottom.
 
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T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,874
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The kiss of death

Wow, that's crazy even for Jim Cramer standards!

 

RU-05

Redshirt
Mar 2, 2026
70
37
18
I also own MDB which was crushed on earnings. Was a great stock for me a couple months ago.
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,874
19,847
113
Not sure what happed to my username.
Who is this? RU05?
Yikes on AVAV and MDB. I'm thinking about short-dated AVAV calls to play a rebound. The report seems like a nothingburger. Not sure why the stock tanked so much.
 
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gmay8

All-Conference
Nov 29, 2005
2,633
2,699
113
We haven't had a blow out day like this in a while... international stock especially getting crushed.

I'll nibble a little on VXUS and maybe buy some VTI later today if it stays down about 2%. This is very long term money, not anything needed in next couple years.
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,874
19,847
113
Hope you bought those calls. AVAV up 12%
You GD right I did! But it was at the opening and AVAV was up a bit already, so I didn't capture the entire move.

Added to a few other positions - shares and calls.
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,874
19,847
113
What's artificial about potentially getting pulled into another Middle East conflict and the resulting rising energy prices?
When a non-economic stimuli (e.g., political or health-related) causes the market to go down, guess what the market will do once that stimuli is resolved or not a big deal anymore? See April 2025 or March 2000 for examples. That's artificial.

And example of a real economic event/trends = 2022 rate hiking cycle (i.e., not artificial)
 
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