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“Wins Above Bubble, or WAB, is a new metric added to the NCAA’s team sheets ahead of last year’s tournament. It attempts to measure how much better or worse a specific team did against its own schedule than what would be expected of a generic bubble-caliber team. In other words: How many wins did you amass, and how many more or less is that than a bubble team would have?
That approach has multiple benefits. Most importantly, it provides one number to directly compare teams with drastically different strengths of schedule.
For a real-world example: Using the NET rankings to measure opponent quality, a bubble team would be expected to have won 14.11 games so far against Auburn’s wildly difficult schedule. Auburn currently has 15 wins, which puts the Tigers at +0.89 WAB. That same generic bubble team would be expected to accumulate 25.9 wins against Miami (Ohio)’s schedule. The Redhawks are 28-0, so they are at +2.10 WAB. That’s a one-to-one comparison to show that Miami has accomplished more than Auburn”
Editor’s note: This article is part of the Bracket Central series, an inside look at the run-up to the men’s & women’s NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments.
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