The economy
- Thread starter Rastafarian
- Start date
Here's some truth.
BOOM! Karoline Leavitt just DROPPED the mic on the economy, 2026 is shaping up to be a MASSIVE Trump BOOM and the experts are STUNNED speechless!• Core inflation LOWEST in nearly 5 YEARS
• Mortgage costs DOWN $4,000 (after Dems jacked ’em +$15K)
• Real earnings BEAT inflation by $1,400
• January jobs CRUSH expectations: +172K PRIVATE sector
• Inflation cools to 2.4%
• Rent FALLING, eggs/dairy/cheese/fruit/potatoes/butter CHEAPER
• Fuel DOWN nearly 10% YoY
• Prescription drugs DOWN
• 100% of job growth PRIVATE sector
• Federal jobs at LOWEST since 1960s
• ALL net jobs to NATIVE-born Americans
“This is ONLY THE START, the best is yet to come.”
Dems promised “Build Back Better” Trump delivered REAL relief.
Here's some truth.
• Core inflation LOWEST in nearly 5 YEARS
• Mortgage costs DOWN $4,000 (after Dems jacked ’em +$15K)
• Real earnings BEAT inflation by $1,400
• January jobs CRUSH expectations: +172K PRIVATE sector
• Inflation cools to 2.4%
• Rent FALLING, eggs/dairy/cheese/fruit/potatoes/butter CHEAPER
• Fuel DOWN nearly 10% YoY
• Prescription drugs DOWN
• 100% of job growth PRIVATE sector
• Federal jobs at LOWEST since 1960s
• ALL net jobs to NATIVE-born Americans
“This is ONLY THE START, the best is yet to come.”
Dems promised “Build Back Better” Trump delivered REAL relief.
"The most recent data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), as reported in the January 2026 Employment Situation release (published around early February 2026), shows the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for Black or African American workers (aged 16 and over) at 7.2%."
Grok Say
Democrats want to strangle businesses through regulation. They can just taste the power on the tip of their tongue.
I do think disruption is coming. Within 5 years there will be some big changes in our labor force. Disruption is not necessarily a bad thing. It will probably lead to more comfortable lives for all.
Can't find the post i was trying to put here. Essentially, entry level jobs are dissapearing fast. The value of a college education and knowledge itself is being deflated quickly.
Can't find the post i was trying to put here. Essentially, entry level jobs are dissapearing fast. The value of a college education and knowledge itself is being deflated quickly.
I'm not sure what to think of the whole AI thing. It's great that new chips are much faster and will lead to more productivity. But that's been happening all along. It just might be happening faster.
In the late 70s my company had a room full people typing. Accountants prepared spreadsheets and did all the calculations by hand. That all changed in the 1980s with the personal computer and programs like WordPerfect and Lotus 123. A lot of jobs were lost but it wasn't devastating to the economy.
I keep hearing predictions like half of all white collar jobs will be eliminated in 18 months. I simply can't believe that. As far as the value of a college education being deflated... I think that's been happening for quite some time and it's mostly due to majors in things that offer no return on investment. I think there will continue to be a big demand for accountants, lawyers, data scientists, surgeons, electrical engineers, drug researchers, etc. They'll have better tools that will improve their productivity.
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AI is coming for jobs. From my own perspective, in my companies, in the last 12 months we have grown our net margin from 30% to 50% by aggressively implementing AIs. We did that without hiring. Fewer people can do more work by leveraging AI. And we are only scratching the surface of agentic AI at this point.
AI will replace jobs. But it ALWAYS needs human oversight. One human who knows how to use AI can replace 3-5 humans who dont. If you have a college-age kid, tell them to get their arse to YouTube and start learning AI as fast as possible.
I feel like many here aren't close enough to people struggling. I feel like yall only hang out with home owners with success business careers.
The average age of a first time home buyer is now 40 years old. The median age of a home buyer in 2025 was 57.... 57!!!
Yall the American dream is dead. If you dont think the youg folks aren't going to demand change. You are kidding yourselves.
The average age of a first time home buyer is now 40 years old. The median age of a home buyer in 2025 was 57.... 57!!!
Yall the American dream is dead. If you dont think the youg folks aren't going to demand change. You are kidding yourselves.
Not much at all right now. Will be a lot more once we get into more agentic approach.
We're not hating the US or its people. But we're seeing an administration covered in lies, cover-ups, destroying important institutions like EPA, FBI, FDA, installing its marrionets everywhere in important positions, without any respect of the law or norms, threatening allies, preparing to steal the midterms, showing extreme violence against peacefully protesting people, ...
In short behaving as the bully of the class, or better, the bully of the school. We hate the destruction, we hate the uncertainty related to it, we hate the instability it creates, we hate the abuse of power inside and outside the US, we hate the self-aggrandizement of someone in particular, we hate to see the US turn into a dictatorship, ...
Pentagon aggressively lobbies EU against Buy European weapons push
In previously unreported remarks, the U.S. administration warned Brussels that it will retaliate if Europeans “strong-arm American companies out of the market.”
www.politico.eu
Side note post.
The 1920-21 depression was arguably more severe than 1929's initial crash - unemployment hit 19%, industrial production collapsed 32%, and wholesale prices plummeted 37%. Yet this economic catastrophe has been virtually erased from mainstream economic education because it demolishes the British pedophile John Maynard Keynes' narrative that government must intervene to save capitalism from itself.
President Harding did the unthinkable by modern standards: absolutely nothing. No stimulus packages, no bailouts, no monetary expansion, no public works programs. Treasury Secretary Andrew Mellon even advocated letting failing businesses liquidate, arguing that inefficient capital allocation needed to be purged from the system. The Federal Reserve, still learning its role, largely stayed out of the way.
The result? Complete recovery in just 18 months - one of the fastest economic recoveries in American history. Markets cleared, prices adjusted, inefficient businesses failed, and productive capital found new uses. Compare this to the 1930s when Roosevelt's alphabet soup of interventions turned a correction into a decade-long depression, or 2008 when bailouts preserved zombie banks and malinvestment.
The 1920-21 episode proves that free markets self-correct rapidly when government doesn't interfere with the natural healing process. Politicians learned the wrong lesson though - they concluded that doing nothing doesn't win elections, even when it works perfectly.
The 1920-21 depression was arguably more severe than 1929's initial crash - unemployment hit 19%, industrial production collapsed 32%, and wholesale prices plummeted 37%. Yet this economic catastrophe has been virtually erased from mainstream economic education because it demolishes the British pedophile John Maynard Keynes' narrative that government must intervene to save capitalism from itself.
President Harding did the unthinkable by modern standards: absolutely nothing. No stimulus packages, no bailouts, no monetary expansion, no public works programs. Treasury Secretary Andrew Mellon even advocated letting failing businesses liquidate, arguing that inefficient capital allocation needed to be purged from the system. The Federal Reserve, still learning its role, largely stayed out of the way.
The result? Complete recovery in just 18 months - one of the fastest economic recoveries in American history. Markets cleared, prices adjusted, inefficient businesses failed, and productive capital found new uses. Compare this to the 1930s when Roosevelt's alphabet soup of interventions turned a correction into a decade-long depression, or 2008 when bailouts preserved zombie banks and malinvestment.
The 1920-21 episode proves that free markets self-correct rapidly when government doesn't interfere with the natural healing process. Politicians learned the wrong lesson though - they concluded that doing nothing doesn't win elections, even when it works perfectly.
The economy is humming.
Mortgage rates hit lowest in 4 years. Inflation tame. Gov debt paying 4%. unemployment low.
NVDA going to crush earnings after the close.
Mortgage rates hit lowest level in nearly 4 years
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/25/mor...are|com.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard
Mortgage rates hit lowest in 4 years. Inflation tame. Gov debt paying 4%. unemployment low.
NVDA going to crush earnings after the close.
Mortgage rates hit lowest level in nearly 4 years
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/25/mor...are|com.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard
Early momentum for NVDA today. Let's hope it continues and more money to be made.
I think it will. Price has run up in anticpation, while a lot of it's AI counterparts have sold off in the last week, NVDA has really held strong. High 190's was my price target so may take 10-20% off the table before announcement. I think they are going to crush it though.
Market is implying a 6% move, so if they crush it we could get through the all time high of $205 with $210 likely being the top of the range. If it somehow got up there i would probably exit and look to get back in at a later point.
If they miss, ill be looking to add back around 175 or so. Hoping that doesn't happen.
I highly recommend this guy. He charges $7 a month and I honestly think it's the best value on almost any purchase I have ever made.
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x.com
Essentially, at those prices there will be other stocks that are cheaper on a fwd earnings basis. I would sell NVDA and roll it into another stock viewed as "cheaper".
The maga bubble at work with a zombie following. Where does newsmax fall in comparison to catturd and fox?
Newsmax is considered part of the broader right-wing "MAGA bubble," acting as a competitor to Fox News for that specific audience, while often pushing further to the right. While they share a similar audience demographic, the two networks have a contentious, competitive relationship rather than acting as a single, harmonious entity.
- Relationship to the MAGA Movement: Newsmax grew significantly by catering to viewers who felt Fox News was not sufficiently supportive of former President Donald Trump, particularly following the 2020 election. It is often described as a "pro-Trump" or "MAGA" channel.
Newsmax operates within the same ideological bubble as Fox News, but acts as a more fervent, pro-Trump alternative designed to challenge Fox's dominance in the conservative media market.
A struggle today for gamma neutral spreads around the 25,000 NQ march contract and the weekly options expiration at 4 PM ET today. This will become increasingly important with volatility into the 3rd Friday of March end of quarter options and futures expirations.
Early trading showing 0.99 put call ratio on NQ with MNQ showing 1.3+
Some things never change when under the microscope of human actions.
Jesse Livermore's most famous quotes emphasize emotional discipline, patience, and following the market's trend, with notable ones including "It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting" and "The stock market is never obvious. It is designed to fool most of the people, most of the time". He stressed cutting losses quickly, avoiding emotional trading based on greed or fear, and only acting when the market confirms one's opinion, not before.
"Trade what you see, not what you think" is a core investment principle often attributed to financier and presidential advisor Bernard Baruch (1870–1965). It emphasizes acting on objective, observable market data rather than subjective opinions, predictions, or "tips".
Early trading showing 0.99 put call ratio on NQ with MNQ showing 1.3+
Some things never change when under the microscope of human actions.
Jesse Livermore's most famous quotes emphasize emotional discipline, patience, and following the market's trend, with notable ones including "It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting" and "The stock market is never obvious. It is designed to fool most of the people, most of the time". He stressed cutting losses quickly, avoiding emotional trading based on greed or fear, and only acting when the market confirms one's opinion, not before.
"Trade what you see, not what you think" is a core investment principle often attributed to financier and presidential advisor Bernard Baruch (1870–1965). It emphasizes acting on objective, observable market data rather than subjective opinions, predictions, or "tips".
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Just guessing there was a good bit of rebalancing at the 25,000 consolidation
Reference the March end of quarter. If fund distributions result in cash levels that exceed charter limit cash levels into the end of quarter, forced buying will be triggered. This is most evident at the end of June quarter into summer holidays.
Reference the March end of quarter. If fund distributions result in cash levels that exceed charter limit cash levels into the end of quarter, forced buying will be triggered. This is most evident at the end of June quarter into summer holidays.
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Can't help but notice the pattern the last 3 years. This year is following just like the last two so far. The question is will we get the rally like the previous couple of years.
Seems like we will build negative sentiment to a peak into the 3rd Friday of March setting up an explosive reversal up on Thursday PM or globex into the Friday expiration. That is what I am currently leaning for.
I had forgotten how closely it is tracking Liberation Day.
These seasonal trends have played for many years.
Some years ago, I traded with a dude who was close to Larry Williams as neighbors and friends at an early age who was also a trader. We had a lot of interesting discussions outside of my box.
The repeating relationships including fibbonacci, the 21 ema, 50 ema, 100 ema, 200 ema, VWAP,.... are still there, but you see AI rapidly affecting how price moves in the journey. This is why I put so much emphasis on patience and understanding the mechanics of time progressing through the global markets. There are specific times through the day where mechanical things happen on a repetitive basis. I would rather play with the house than against when trading futures.
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Reference the globex market times, geopolitics has been showing up in order flow balance shifts on short time frames.
NOTE ADDED: these times shift with daylight savings time variation at the start
Just looked at screen. London closed at 12 ET. US now the last open market. Nice drop at 12:09
Just watching and rambling today
Too many unknowns today on levels under the open gap that will trigger buying and selling into a Friday time and price squeeze.
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Core wholesale prices rose 0.8% in January, much more than expected
The core producer price index increased a seasonally adjusted 0.8%, more than the 0.6% gain in December.
www.cnbc.com
Some bad inflation numbers from January.