Where would the fun be in that?
OT: Spring Warmth, 3/5-3/12+? Winter 2025-26 - Patterns and Potential Winter Storms
- Thread starter RU848789
- Start date
Where would the fun be in that?
So watching 2 potential snow events coming up in the next few days but none worthy of a thread
First is one coming in the wee hours of the morning to into the morning rush.. a 6 hour window with a shot of light snow that could bring light accumulations around an inch and perhaps 2 or so in NW NJ. Remember the roads are pretty heavily treated at this point and will probably get an extra douse early tomorrow morning so shouldnt be that big of a deal. Those below 95 may not even see much at all. It will quickly warm later in the morning topping off in the low to mid 40s later in the day
A clipper system approaches from the west Tuesday night.
Precipitation will mostly be snow throughout the region, but the
highest snowfall totals will be across the southern Poconos and
far northwest New Jersey. Farther south, QPF amounts will be
lighter, so not as much snow will accumulate. In addition, rain
should mix with the snow, and eventually change to rain
Wednesday morning before ending. Overall, about 1 to 3 inches is
possible north and west of the Fall Line, with 3 to 4 inches in
the southern Poconos. Less than an inch of snow will accumulate
elsewhere. Winter Weather Advisories may be needed for the
southern Poconos.
While overall snowfall will be limited with this system, there
is some concern given the timing of the snow, which may
potentially lead to minor impacts to the early morning commute
Wednesday morning, mainly for the I-78 corridor and areas north.
Untreated roadways could see slick conditions develop and
snowfall could reduce visibilities at times.
First is one coming in the wee hours of the morning to into the morning rush.. a 6 hour window with a shot of light snow that could bring light accumulations around an inch and perhaps 2 or so in NW NJ. Remember the roads are pretty heavily treated at this point and will probably get an extra douse early tomorrow morning so shouldnt be that big of a deal. Those below 95 may not even see much at all. It will quickly warm later in the morning topping off in the low to mid 40s later in the day
A clipper system approaches from the west Tuesday night.
Precipitation will mostly be snow throughout the region, but the
highest snowfall totals will be across the southern Poconos and
far northwest New Jersey. Farther south, QPF amounts will be
lighter, so not as much snow will accumulate. In addition, rain
should mix with the snow, and eventually change to rain
Wednesday morning before ending. Overall, about 1 to 3 inches is
possible north and west of the Fall Line, with 3 to 4 inches in
the southern Poconos. Less than an inch of snow will accumulate
elsewhere. Winter Weather Advisories may be needed for the
southern Poconos.
While overall snowfall will be limited with this system, there
is some concern given the timing of the snow, which may
potentially lead to minor impacts to the early morning commute
Wednesday morning, mainly for the I-78 corridor and areas north.
Untreated roadways could see slick conditions develop and
snowfall could reduce visibilities at times.
2nd system offers more potential but has been trending on the models to a lesser impact event. Models have been differing with some having a southern trend and some more of a northern impact. There will be temperatures issues either way so best chances of accumulating snow will be north of 78 yet this might end up being a system that mainly impacts south of 95. So stay tuned for that. Timing would be Friday morning into afternoon.
KEY MESSAGE 3...Low pressure slides south of the region,
bringing a chance for rain and snow Thursday through Thursday
night.
Late week, an upper trough digs into the Midwest, then lower
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Surface low pressure develops
somewhere over the Tennessee Valley on Thursday, then takes a
run at the Northeast Thursday night, departing on Friday.
Precipitation develops on a warm front extending out from that
low on Thursday, and then the bulk of the precipitation falls
Thursday night, ending Friday morning. Precipitation may start
out as all snow or a rain/snow mix before changing to plain rain
south and east of the Fall Line, while precipitation remains as
snow to the north and west. A return to a wintry mix is
possible Thursday night as the system departs. Uncertain at this
time how much snow will accumulate from this system, as there
is low confidence with the timing and placement of this system.
Temperatures should top off in the 40s once again on Friday.
KEY MESSAGE 3...Low pressure slides south of the region,
bringing a chance for rain and snow Thursday through Thursday
night.
Late week, an upper trough digs into the Midwest, then lower
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Surface low pressure develops
somewhere over the Tennessee Valley on Thursday, then takes a
run at the Northeast Thursday night, departing on Friday.
Precipitation develops on a warm front extending out from that
low on Thursday, and then the bulk of the precipitation falls
Thursday night, ending Friday morning. Precipitation may start
out as all snow or a rain/snow mix before changing to plain rain
south and east of the Fall Line, while precipitation remains as
snow to the north and west. A return to a wintry mix is
possible Thursday night as the system departs. Uncertain at this
time how much snow will accumulate from this system, as there
is low confidence with the timing and placement of this system.
Temperatures should top off in the 40s once again on Friday.
The next system that may need a thread by Friday will be the one for the 3/2-4 timeframe where a moderate type snow event is being signaled on most models. A week away would be pointless to discuss until late week.
After a warm Saturday with temps in the 50s in most locales with rapid melting, we get an unwelcome artic shot that will plunge temps starting later Sunday and continuing through the first week in March. Hints of a possible big warm up in mid March but we have seen those signals before and they have been muted or denied but eventually a pattern shift is going to happen and perhaps next weeks storm is the one to do it.
After a warm Saturday with temps in the 50s in most locales with rapid melting, we get an unwelcome artic shot that will plunge temps starting later Sunday and continuing through the first week in March. Hints of a possible big warm up in mid March but we have seen those signals before and they have been muted or denied but eventually a pattern shift is going to happen and perhaps next weeks storm is the one to do it.
Been debating a thread on tonight's system, mostly because 1-2" N of 78 with temps in the 20s will lead to driving impacts for tomorrow's rush hour, even though it'll be gone by noon with highs in the low 40s. The Friday threat looks very weak and only the GFS is showing a few inches (although one really can't ignore the GFS anymore after it crushed the big storm yesterday). Below is the map for just tonight. Seems like a minor event that can just be captured by updating the thread title on this thread, IMO, but I might get yelled at for that.So watching 2 potential snow events coming up in the next few days but none worthy of a thread
First is one coming in the wee hours of the morning to into the morning rush.. a 6 hour window with a shot of light snow that could bring light accumulations around an inch and perhaps 2 or so in NW NJ. Remember the roads are pretty heavily treated at this point and will probably get an extra douse early tomorrow morning so shouldnt be that big of a deal. Those below 95 may not even see much at all. It will quickly warm later in the morning topping off in the low to mid 40s later in the day
A clipper system approaches from the west Tuesday night.
Precipitation will mostly be snow throughout the region, but the
highest snowfall totals will be across the southern Poconos and
far northwest New Jersey. Farther south, QPF amounts will be
lighter, so not as much snow will accumulate. In addition, rain
should mix with the snow, and eventually change to rain
Wednesday morning before ending. Overall, about 1 to 3 inches is
possible north and west of the Fall Line, with 3 to 4 inches in
the southern Poconos. Less than an inch of snow will accumulate
elsewhere. Winter Weather Advisories may be needed for the
southern Poconos.
While overall snowfall will be limited with this system, there
is some concern given the timing of the snow, which may
potentially lead to minor impacts to the early morning commute
Wednesday morning, mainly for the I-78 corridor and areas north.
Untreated roadways could see slick conditions develop and
snowfall could reduce visibilities at times.
So, I just changed the thread title to capture the 1-2" N of 78 event for tonight. Seems like a new thread for this minor threat is just clutter, but others may disagree.
I wouldn't worry about clutter on this board. Frankly, since the recent change there's been much less activity here IMO.
looks like amounts were lowered....there is zero reason for a thread for an inch of snow with roads treated
Looks the same to me, but 1-3" (even though the map shows 1-2") along/N of 78 is a weak reason for a thread...
Precipitation will start as snow and overspread the area
between 2-4 AM continuing through about 8-10 AM. For South
Jersey and Delmarva, QPF amounts are the lowest and any snow
will transition to light rain. The remainder of the area should
see all snow with this system but the fast moving nature of this
system will limit snowfall amounts. Overall, we are expecting
1-3" of snow north of I-78, with a coating up to an inch
anticipated south of I-78 to about the Philly metro area.
Elected not to issue an Advisory as the HREF probability of 3"
or more is less than 10%, even in the Poconos.
So we got 1.3" of fine powder overnight with temps in the mid-20, but the temp is now up to 29F. All surfaces covered, including the treated street in front of our house. One more band possibly coming through soon. Love seeing the snowpack refreshed and newly gorgeous again. It just wants to snow this winter, as we got another overperformer.
Not in Flemington. Maybe 1/4 inch if that on walks. Roads are crystal clear. Why would you love snow refreshed after over a foot of snow?
Between a 1/4 and 1/2 inch
Do you think we should open a thread???
Do you think we should open a thread???
The Thursday afternoon/evening system has trended a bit south, where it could be 1-2" of snow or a mix or mostly rain, S of 276/195 and maybe an inch of snow north of there to 78 - a complete miss is also about a 50% chance.
However, the Mon/Tues potential is real and before this past storm I wouldn't have been very interested in the fact that only the GFS is showing a major snowstorm, but since the GFS crushed the other models on this past storm, I'm interested, especially since the AIGFS and the Euro trended towards the snowy GFS solution to some extent. The other models (UK/CMC/AIFS) are showing a miss to our south. None of this variance is unusual for a system that's still 5+ days out. Nowhere near ready for a thread yet, IMO, but as for the last storm, I can't stop people from starting threads. (@Mikemarc)
However, the Mon/Tues potential is real and before this past storm I wouldn't have been very interested in the fact that only the GFS is showing a major snowstorm, but since the GFS crushed the other models on this past storm, I'm interested, especially since the AIGFS and the Euro trended towards the snowy GFS solution to some extent. The other models (UK/CMC/AIFS) are showing a miss to our south. None of this variance is unusual for a system that's still 5+ days out. Nowhere near ready for a thread yet, IMO, but as for the last storm, I can't stop people from starting threads. (@Mikemarc)
I checked Mt Holly snow reports and his house had more than all of them which were in the.5 to 1 inch range
Snow globe Metuchen style rolls on
Last winter that would've been a major snowstorm, lol...
Why does this concern you so much? Maybe you could settle it by going down to Metuchen and measuring the snow yourself instead of constantly beating the same stupid drum with the dog and your band of mean girls, clogging up weather threads. It's tiresome.
Im just noting that Metuchen once again confirmed as snow globe capital of NJ
I've seen reports on-line of 1.8" in Freehold, 1.3" in Millburn, 1.4" in Central Park, and a general 1-2" N for NENJ, NYC, SENY/LI as this is a more north and east event, as per the tweet below and I'm closer to that than anyone else in CNJ. And Mt. Holly lists 1" in Ewing and 1.2" in North Brunswick. Maybe do a bit more research before making the digs, especially when you know that the snow reports are nowhere near complete yet.
Last edited:
Anyhoo all of the refresher will be for naught as it will melt by early afternoon as we reach low to mid 40s
Mid 50s coming Saturday before cold shot for a few days next week with a storm chance for Tuesday but hardly a certainty.The cold air may end up supressing this one. I see first 60s showing up in long range 2 weeks from now but perhaps with a wet pattern too
Mid 50s coming Saturday before cold shot for a few days next week with a storm chance for Tuesday but hardly a certainty.The cold air may end up supressing this one. I see first 60s showing up in long range 2 weeks from now but perhaps with a wet pattern too
Maybe .25 here at the coast that has aleady melted on the road. Looks like we may get another round of dusting.
For those who might not believe we got 1.3" and that the roads were covered...
Looks like the Metuchen Department of Works needs to do better being proactive
wtf??????? Is this leftover from the last storm on Monday or new snow? Metuchen would get an F- in my books.
So we barely got an inch here.
@RU848789 and @bac2therac I've got my CIO asking me about Mon/Tues as he flies out Tuesday morning. When can we get a feel for what is coming?
@RU848789 and @bac2therac I've got my CIO asking me about Mon/Tues as he flies out Tuesday morning. When can we get a feel for what is coming?
still to be determined. gfs says storm maybe a 4-10 inch event but the other models say no and suppress it south. Obviously people are focusing on GFS because it sniffed the last storm out but thats not how it works
Great job continuing to act like an infantile d-bag. Keep digging in your race to the bottom.
That's what 1.3" of snow looks like on top of a bit of slush leftover from Monday, because that street is next to the small park where all the kids sled and was filled with cars by 10 am Monday blocking the ability of the plows to finish the job that day.
Metuchen is widely regarded as having the best snow removal in the area - most roads were plowed by noon on Monday and were mostly blacktop by late afternoon and the busier roads (like ours) were plowed 3 times through the night/morning, so it was in great shape by 10 am. I was shoveling each time they came around before sunrise and being nice guys, they slowed down so the snow wouldn't completely cover where I had just shoveled.
doesnt look like it....do you have data to back up they have the best removal in the area, have they been given a major award
Got at least an inch+ in P’way. Believe it or not roads were a mess, accidents, saw a school bus up on hill on 287 facing oncoming traffic(hope everybody ok). Took twice as long to get to work. Let’s start discussing Monday I’m supposed to be in Trenton as a witness for a federal trial.
Ignore is a terrific feature, I highly recommend it for him and Shelby.
See post 1057 above for my thoughts and brief model discussion. The GFS is the snowiest, by far, but the AIGFS has moderate snow and the Euro has snow for Philly/SNJ at 0Z last night and looked like it was poised to have snow for all at 6Z (but the run ended with significant snow on our doorstep), but the rest of the models are largely suppressed, so too early to call.
This should be a much easier forecast than the blizzard, as it's much more similar to 1/25, which reached pretty good consensus by days 3-4 out and I'd expect the same for this one. The blizzard was a phased coastal and those are extremely volatile so hard to predict 3-4 days out, as we saw, whereas 1/25 and this event are more SWFEs (southwest flow events) where a storm is largely moving west to each along the baroclinic zone (sharp contrast in temps along the track with very warm temps to the south of the track and very cold temps to the north of it). Way less moving parts to forecast so I'd expect decent consensus by 3 days out at the latest, i.e., Friday morning-ish.
Last edited: