OT: Weekend snowstorm - historic blizzzard
- Thread starter Mikemarc
- Start date
for the shore yeah probably starting by 9 with the heavy stuff...if you get 6 hours of 3 inch an hour rates well thats 18 right there
All quiet in Piscataway so far, other than an army of fire trucks barreling down River Road with sirens blazing about an hour ago.
Looks like https://www.americanwx.com/bb/ crashed. Too much traffic I guess
Seems to be working now.
Euro
Seems to be working now.
Euro
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I’ll take it.the RGEM has been the least snowiest model but even they have cut amounts back a bit...sort of boxing day gradient look...verbatim is 5 in nw nj moving to 8-10 in central jersey to 12-16 at coast
Yeah, that yellow portion is not the coast, much of it is central NJ.last call EPA Weather....widespread 12-18 NJ with 18-24 to coast
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snow is starting to be reported in some shore areas. By 3pm snow should continue to spread up through central jersey and temps will begin to drop
by 4pm we all should be in accumulating snow
by 4pm we all should be in accumulating snow
Just saw that Syracuse has had 128 inches of snow this winter. I wonder if this is a recruiting weekend for them.
I don't like to be definitive, but with models and real observation trends (snowing heavily and accumulating in Lewes DE), you're going to be wrong on this one - can't see coastal NJ getting <20".
Snow started in Allenwood about 10 minutes ago, a little ahead of forecast. Not sticking anywhere.
Snow starting here in Spotsood. It is a pretty fine snow...I was expecting the big flakes at first. Shows you what I know 
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Go RU! Be careful out there my friends!
.Go RU! Be careful out there my friends!
Reporting from the sane portion of NYC: Staten Island has a rain/snow mix right now but only slightly.
FYI, the city had decided that no vehicles (cars, trucks, bikes, motorcycles, scooters, horse drawn carriages and roller skates) are allowed on the roads/streets starting at 9PM tonight. I assume Outerbridge, Goethels and Bayonne Bridges will be blocked at the NJ ends.
FYI, the city had decided that no vehicles (cars, trucks, bikes, motorcycles, scooters, horse drawn carriages and roller skates) are allowed on the roads/streets starting at 9PM tonight. I assume Outerbridge, Goethels and Bayonne Bridges will be blocked at the NJ ends.
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After a few hours of light rain, snow, and mix, all snow now adn picking up a bit in intensity. Should start seeing accumulations on grass/snow by 3-4 pm and paved surfaces not long after that, but certainly by sunset. Temp down to 34F and temps around 32-33F along 78 and in NYC, so colder air is working in, plus the precip intensity brings down cooler air from aloft, cooling the column to the surface (dynamic cooling). Will likely be all snow down to 276/195 soon, too.
And this is a key observation that argues for the "shift east" we just saw in the GFS/NAM being wrong, at least for where the surface low pressure is forming. This makes it more likely that the shift east might be wrong. We'll see. Below is the 12Z HRRR, which is close to what the NWS is showing (and the 13Z-17Z hourly HRRR runs all look very close to 12 at the timepoints they end - between 12 and 18Z the HRRR only goes out 18 hrs. vs 48 hrs every 6 hours), but a little less and TWC is also close to this; both are below, along with the current NWS map for reference.
And this is a key observation that argues for the "shift east" we just saw in the GFS/NAM being wrong, at least for where the surface low pressure is forming. This makes it more likely that the shift east might be wrong. We'll see. Below is the 12Z HRRR, which is close to what the NWS is showing (and the 13Z-17Z hourly HRRR runs all look very close to 12 at the timepoints they end - between 12 and 18Z the HRRR only goes out 18 hrs. vs 48 hrs every 6 hours), but a little less and TWC is also close to this; both are below, along with the current NWS map for reference.
No, my Cardiologist banned me from doing that back in 2008. hahaha
By the way, here's our starting point for snowfall, as we still have 1-2" of snow/sleet on our property, which admittedly is on the shady side, but damn, that's about 35 days straight with <1" on the ground and that's going to go for at least another 7 days now.
