After watching what I believe is a roster of potential with RU and seeing what the rest of the B1G, Big 12, SEC and most of the ACC has, I dont see a path towards being a competitive roster (NCAA caliber), unless its a bare minimum of 12M and probably 14M in NIL funding.....before someone calls me crazy, I am watching the entire landscape of rosters in ALL conferences and not piecing together a roster on a standard RU budget (non-existent as of today).
First of all, ANY credible talent level of starters in all 5 positions, should cost around 10M in total money......not what RU should pay for the current starting 5, but what it would take to be around .500 in the B1G or a 9 to 11 seed in the NCAAs.
So.....the question is.....how many actual RU players can develop into a starter or has starter level or rotational level talent??
Based on where things stand today and after the Minnesota game, there are players who have starting level capacity BUT are young.....and we have players who are starting here, but probably would be a bench or role player, on a NCAA caliber roster.
A starting PF/C, is an approximate cost of 1.75 to 2.5M.....someone who provides 12 to 14PPG ans 6 to 8 RPG.....(someone with a minimum skill set or player thats a blend of Myles Johnson and Cliff Omoyuri)....
A starting caliber PF/ hybrid Forward......typically costs around 1.25M to 1.5M, depending on level of player.....probably someone who has some level of defense and perimeter shooting.....Is Dylan Grant that level of player OR can he be that level of player next year....?? TBD, but my guess is we need someone who is good for 12 to 13PPG and 6 boards, with solid defense and perimeter shooting, who can also create their own shot.
Small Forward.....Self explanatory.....approximate cost of 1.25 to 1.75M, depending on level of player.....to be competitive, we need a player at RHJ level or better. To date, we have not had a player other than Ace Bailey, who fits this role, since RHJ left...
Shooting guard......Kaden Powers shows flashes of potential and is improving. I would not expect to improve on finding a better option in the portal, UNLESS, you are planning to spend a minimum of 1.75M to 2M, for a proven scoring option.....The market dictated last spring and showed Southern Illinois SG, Kennard Davis was that level of player, but he landed at BYU for north of 2M....he averaged 20PPG at SIU and even Purdue decided to invest elsewhere, deciding to build internally and with HS players......I would invest in Powers and bet on his improvement.
PG.....if you asked me this 3 weeks ago, I would have told you before RU went west to USC and UCLA, that Lino Mark was not part of the solution, despite his 4* ranking..
Well, as that west coast trip....in essentially 4 games (not going to count 1 minute played vs Maryland as the 5th game.....
Mark....16 of 28 from the field....5 of 11 from 3....44 points in 4 games....11PPG....in only 77 minutes of playing time.
I would not be under the impression that is an abberation.....the kid makes plays when there's no play to be made.....add to it, his willingness to be an on the ball defender and a knack for steals, he COULD, be a starter that is capable of being a solution....definitely based on this streak of games, he appears to be trending UP and a player I would invest in.
Dorian Jones....CG.....why mention a kid who is redshirting?? Because his tape and length and shot making on tape, is equal or better than Mark and Powers.....he just needs minutes next year......hard to overpay here, but I can't imagine him redshirting and not playing a big role next year.
The remaining pieces of Francis, Zrno, Dortch, Buchanan, Nwuli and JMike Davis all have some value.....but we are probably better off paying Francis and let him cook as the 6th man off the bench....invest there.
So, I have 4 players as likely to keep.....and a roster of 13 spots......if you keep Grant, thats north of 1M, anyway you slice it OR, you pay another 750K over Grant's number for a proven player.....either way, that starting spot is 1M to 1.2M Grant or 1.75 to 2M (more proven player via the portal).
If we acknowledge that a legitimate PF/C would cost RU at least 1.75M to 2.5M, these are the numbers.
C.....2.0M
PF Grant or upgrade (1.75M)
Wing or someone via Portal with talent (1.5M or 1.75M)
Powers (750K to 1M)
Mark (750K to 1M)
Jones (500K to 1M)
Francis (1.25M to 1.5M)
Buchanan/Zrno (500K each)
Rest of roster (Davis, Dortch, Ware, etc 1M to 1.5M for
This is an estimated 13M and has players that we may not agree "are worth this or that", but if you say "you can't give Dylan Grant, Powers or Mark XYZ amount, are you upgrading with a more proven player?? If so, add more money to that amount.
This is the actual math and I am not advocating to drop one player to pay another player.....that is a losing equation...
We have seen already this year that "we cant pay Lathan Sommerville 1M or more!!...well, we have the worse production out of any Power 4 program, at the 5 position.....with Ogbole, Fall, Dortch asked to play the 5, and Ware).....we are essentially getting 2PPG from Ogbole in MOST games.....can a B1G program win, with a starter only scoring 2PPG.....??
JMike Davis starts most of the games this year at around 7PPG.....in 25 or more minutes.....can you win games with a guard playing 20 to 25MPG and scoring 7PPG???
There is NO path to success without a NIL budget of a FLOOR amount of 12M.....this is not the Big East, AAC or Mountai West conference.....in a Power 4 league, you need front line talent and money.....until then, its asking a lot of ANY coach in this type of situation.....
First of all, ANY credible talent level of starters in all 5 positions, should cost around 10M in total money......not what RU should pay for the current starting 5, but what it would take to be around .500 in the B1G or a 9 to 11 seed in the NCAAs.
So.....the question is.....how many actual RU players can develop into a starter or has starter level or rotational level talent??
Based on where things stand today and after the Minnesota game, there are players who have starting level capacity BUT are young.....and we have players who are starting here, but probably would be a bench or role player, on a NCAA caliber roster.
A starting PF/C, is an approximate cost of 1.75 to 2.5M.....someone who provides 12 to 14PPG ans 6 to 8 RPG.....(someone with a minimum skill set or player thats a blend of Myles Johnson and Cliff Omoyuri)....
A starting caliber PF/ hybrid Forward......typically costs around 1.25M to 1.5M, depending on level of player.....probably someone who has some level of defense and perimeter shooting.....Is Dylan Grant that level of player OR can he be that level of player next year....?? TBD, but my guess is we need someone who is good for 12 to 13PPG and 6 boards, with solid defense and perimeter shooting, who can also create their own shot.
Small Forward.....Self explanatory.....approximate cost of 1.25 to 1.75M, depending on level of player.....to be competitive, we need a player at RHJ level or better. To date, we have not had a player other than Ace Bailey, who fits this role, since RHJ left...
Shooting guard......Kaden Powers shows flashes of potential and is improving. I would not expect to improve on finding a better option in the portal, UNLESS, you are planning to spend a minimum of 1.75M to 2M, for a proven scoring option.....The market dictated last spring and showed Southern Illinois SG, Kennard Davis was that level of player, but he landed at BYU for north of 2M....he averaged 20PPG at SIU and even Purdue decided to invest elsewhere, deciding to build internally and with HS players......I would invest in Powers and bet on his improvement.
PG.....if you asked me this 3 weeks ago, I would have told you before RU went west to USC and UCLA, that Lino Mark was not part of the solution, despite his 4* ranking..
Well, as that west coast trip....in essentially 4 games (not going to count 1 minute played vs Maryland as the 5th game.....
Mark....16 of 28 from the field....5 of 11 from 3....44 points in 4 games....11PPG....in only 77 minutes of playing time.
I would not be under the impression that is an abberation.....the kid makes plays when there's no play to be made.....add to it, his willingness to be an on the ball defender and a knack for steals, he COULD, be a starter that is capable of being a solution....definitely based on this streak of games, he appears to be trending UP and a player I would invest in.
Dorian Jones....CG.....why mention a kid who is redshirting?? Because his tape and length and shot making on tape, is equal or better than Mark and Powers.....he just needs minutes next year......hard to overpay here, but I can't imagine him redshirting and not playing a big role next year.
The remaining pieces of Francis, Zrno, Dortch, Buchanan, Nwuli and JMike Davis all have some value.....but we are probably better off paying Francis and let him cook as the 6th man off the bench....invest there.
So, I have 4 players as likely to keep.....and a roster of 13 spots......if you keep Grant, thats north of 1M, anyway you slice it OR, you pay another 750K over Grant's number for a proven player.....either way, that starting spot is 1M to 1.2M Grant or 1.75 to 2M (more proven player via the portal).
If we acknowledge that a legitimate PF/C would cost RU at least 1.75M to 2.5M, these are the numbers.
C.....2.0M
PF Grant or upgrade (1.75M)
Wing or someone via Portal with talent (1.5M or 1.75M)
Powers (750K to 1M)
Mark (750K to 1M)
Jones (500K to 1M)
Francis (1.25M to 1.5M)
Buchanan/Zrno (500K each)
Rest of roster (Davis, Dortch, Ware, etc 1M to 1.5M for
This is an estimated 13M and has players that we may not agree "are worth this or that", but if you say "you can't give Dylan Grant, Powers or Mark XYZ amount, are you upgrading with a more proven player?? If so, add more money to that amount.
This is the actual math and I am not advocating to drop one player to pay another player.....that is a losing equation...
We have seen already this year that "we cant pay Lathan Sommerville 1M or more!!...well, we have the worse production out of any Power 4 program, at the 5 position.....with Ogbole, Fall, Dortch asked to play the 5, and Ware).....we are essentially getting 2PPG from Ogbole in MOST games.....can a B1G program win, with a starter only scoring 2PPG.....??
JMike Davis starts most of the games this year at around 7PPG.....in 25 or more minutes.....can you win games with a guard playing 20 to 25MPG and scoring 7PPG???
There is NO path to success without a NIL budget of a FLOOR amount of 12M.....this is not the Big East, AAC or Mountai West conference.....in a Power 4 league, you need front line talent and money.....until then, its asking a lot of ANY coach in this type of situation.....
