OT: Weekend snowstorm - historic blizzzard
- Thread starter Mikemarc
- Start date
Summary: NWS issued blizzard warnings for all coastal counties in orange from DE through NJ (Cape May to Monmouth), and NYC/LI as they expect winds to be gusting up to 55 mph (frequent gusts over 35 mph is the blizzard wind criterion). Most of the rest of the counties are under winter storm warnings (pink) for varying amounts of snow (see the map) with only the far NW areas (Poconos and Lehigh Valley) remaining under watches (blue-grey) until they have more data to convert them to either warnings (if 6"+ snow) or advisories (if <6" snow). Also, the rest of the counties will have gusts up to 40 mph, so occasional blizzard conditions are possible.
As per the updated NWS map with 8-12" NW of 95,12-16" for 95 and 16-20" at the coast, this is a dangerous storm with the worst conditions starting after about 2 pm Sunday (the snow before then should be lighter and likely won't accumulate much with temps in the mid-30s S of 78 and there might even be rain to start S of 78), but especially after sunset on Sunday through Monday morning. There will also likely be minor to moderate coastal flooding from this powerful nor’easter (will have the pressure of a Cat 2 hurricane).
Details: And now let's see how we do at 6Z. Bottom line is most of the models didn't change too much from 0Z, except for the Euro, which went back to the level of snowfall it had at 18Z, implying that the low/SE run at 0Z was a blip; also the ICON took a 4-5" step down from 0Z (but to a middle of the road solution). Looks kind of like we have 3 camps: i) the historic camp of the NAM, GFS and NBM with over 20" for most; ii) the "average" camp of the ICON, AIGFS, and UK which have 12-16" amounts for 95 with less NW and more to the coast, and iii) the "low end" camp with the RGEM, CMC, AIFS and Euro with roughly 6-10" for 95 with less NW and more towards the coast.
Clearly, the NWS has gone with the "average" camp, with 8-12" NW of 95, 12-16" for 95 and 16-20" for the coast, which kind of makes sense, although I might've gone up a bit less than they did knowing there is a lower end camp, but I understand why they did it, since going with the low end and having something near the high end verify would have people not quite ready for a close to historic storm. They can easily bump down from the average camp if things trend that way before the storm starts and easily bump up if the low end models bump up significantly.
- 6Z NAM was still snowmageddon with 14-25" NW of 95 to 25-36" from 95 to the coast. Still historic.
- 6Z ICON was 8-12" NW of 95 and 12-16" from 95 to the coast. Pretty significant 4-5" step down from 0Z.
- 6Z RGEM has 6-8" for NW of 95, 8-10" for 95 and 10-14" for the coast (increased ~1" vs 0Z).
- 6Z GFS is a general 16-22" for everyone with a blob of 22-28" for Ocean/Monmouth. Still historic, but a bit less snow v 0Z.
- 6Z AIGFS had 8-12" NW of 95, 12-18" for 95 and 18-22" towards the coast (same as 0Z)
- 6Z UK was 8-12" NW of 95 and 12-16" for 95 towards the coast (similar to 0Z)
- 6Z Euro-AIFS is 6-9" NW of 95, 9-12" for 95 and 12-16" towards the coast (similar to 0Z)
- 6Z Euro shows 4-7" NW of 95, 7-9" for 95 and 9-12" towards the coast (a 2-3" increase from 0Z and just about back to where it was at 18Z, so the 0Z run looks like it might've been a blip).
- 6Z NBM shows 16-22" NW of 95 and 22-28" from 95 towards the coast, which is huge/historic for a model blend.
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Unlikely given that the NWS just came out with 16-20" for the coast.
What time do we think this would start? If I was going to Hunter tomorrow at 6 AM and back around 2 PM, will there be much accululation at the start or is this more of a later afternoon/evening/overnight storm? Northern Bergen resident.
Is there a NAM model forecasting approx 26 inches for CNJ and dare I say 40 inches for coastal Ocean County?
Blizzard Warning for Monmouth County !
Blizzard Warning for Monmouth County !
Likely you'll be fine if you're off the roads before 1-2 pm as snow before 3-4 pm should be lighter and won't accumulate on paved surfaces during the day with temps in the mid-30s; it might even be some rain early on south of 78 and especially south of 195. However, as bac correctly pointed out a couple of models do have some heavier snow starting by 1-2 pm, so I'd keep an eye on that before making that decision as you don't want to be caught in moderate to heavy snow (visibility issues) even if you're on a major road that is mostly wet.
Yes, but look on the bright side if you hate snow - the NWS is still carrying a worst credible 10% probability case with only 1-4" for everyone. I think it's way less than a 10% chance, but they're the pros. Snow lovers will root for the 10% probability high end case, below. And I'm putting in the actual forecast map first to lower the likelihood of confusion, I hope (I generally don't share these 10% probability cases as inevitably some don't read my text (too long, I get it) or even read the title of the graphic.
8-16 is a wide range and covers alot of scenarios and the gradient could be real. Remember boxing day
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 327 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 NJZ001-007>010-012-015-212100- /O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0002.260222T1100Z-260223T2300Z/ /O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0002.260222T0900Z-260223T2300Z/ Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Mercer- Including the cities of Somerville, Trenton, Newton, New Brunswick, Morristown, Washington, and Flemington 327 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 8 and 16 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Portions of central, northern, and northwest New Jersey. * WHEN...From 4 AM Sunday to 6 PM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates could exceed 2 inches per hour. Locally higher snowfall amounts possible. Blowing and drifting of snow, and whiteout conditions possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 327 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 NJZ001-007>010-012-015-212100- /O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0002.260222T1100Z-260223T2300Z/ /O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0002.260222T0900Z-260223T2300Z/ Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Mercer- Including the cities of Somerville, Trenton, Newton, New Brunswick, Morristown, Washington, and Flemington 327 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 8 and 16 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Portions of central, northern, and northwest New Jersey. * WHEN...From 4 AM Sunday to 6 PM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates could exceed 2 inches per hour. Locally higher snowfall amounts possible. Blowing and drifting of snow, and whiteout conditions possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
I'm calling a bust of less than 4" at the shore. Just a hunch. I hope this is not a jinx.
I thought I saw the NAM wasnt aggressive with an earlier start time on its 6z run
136
FXUS61 KPHI 211211
AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
711 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Confidence has increased for heavy snowfall and potential for
blizzard conditions to impact the region.
Blizzard Warnings and Winter Storm Warnings issued for portions
of the area, in effect Sunday through Monday. A Winter Storm
Watch remains in effect for portions of eastern PA and
northeastern MD.
The Gale Watch was upgraded to a Storm Watch for the Atlantic
coastal waters and lower Delaware Bay.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. A major winter storm Sunday through Monday is expected to
bring heavy snowfall and potential for blizzard conditions to
portions of the area.
2. Widespread coastal flooding is expected with Sunday night`s
high tide cycle. Moderate coastal flooding likely for much of
the coast with near major flooding possible. Further tidal
flooding may linger into Monday as well.
3. Remaining unsettled into the second half of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A major winter storm Sunday through Monday is
expected to bring heavy snowfall and potential for blizzard
conditions to portions of the area.
A potent H5 trough centered over the Midwest today will shift
eastward towards the region tonight into early Sunday morning.
At the surface, low pressure will begin to develop over the
southeastern US in the exit region of the trough. From there,
the low is expected to deepen rapidly as it tracks northeastward
off the Mid- Atlantic Coast through Sunday afternoon and into
Sunday night.
Some discrepancies remain amongst model guidance, with the GFS
and NAM maintaining a track closest to the coast, and most
significant snowfall accumulations across the entire region. The
ECM remains farther offshore and a bit weaker with the system
overall, but there remains a northwestward shift over the past
few model runs. Other deterministic guidance generally falls
into one of these two camps, but both outcomes would result in
significant accumulating snow across at least some portions of
the area. Ensemble suites continue to feature a consensus in a
low track that will be close enough to the coast to bring
potentially significant impacts from snow, winds, and coastal
flooding. In addition to the surface cyclone off the coast, an
inverted trough is depicted in most guidance, though there is
some variance in its placement and intensity. However, these
features tend to increase snowfall amounts and rates where they
set up.
The current expectation is for light precipitation to begin
overspreading the region from southwest to northeast some time
late tonight into early Sunday morning. As the low begins to
approach from the southwest Sunday morning and into the
afternoon, precipitation rates should begin to increase.
Temperatures during the daytime hours on Sunday are expected to
be fairly mild, so precipitation could end up being be rain or a
rain and snow mix for areas near and south of the I-78 corridor
through midday before precip becomes heavier and a change to
snow occurs. The rain/snow mix line should move south toward the
coast and Delmarva fairly quickly Sunday afternoon and evening,
as colder air will begin to infiltrate the area in concert with
the heaviest precipitation rates. Therefore, precipitation is
likely to change to all snow, and be heavy at times. Snowfall
rates could exceed 2 inches per hour where the heaviest
accumulations are forecast. The heaviest snowfall is anticipated
to occur mainly Sunday evening through Sunday night, then begin
to taper off into the daytime hours Monday. Snow will likely
come to an end from west to east sometime Monday afternoon.
Total forecast snow accumulations have increased substantially
across the board. Generally forecasting a widespread 8-18", with
the greatest amounts focused across New Jersey and adjacent
areas of southeastern Pennsylvania (including the Philadelphia
metro area). There will likely be a sharp cutoff in the highest
amounts toward our western and southern most zones across
eastern PA and Delmarva. This is where some guidance still
indicates snowfall amounts could fall short of warning criteria.
There could certainly be locally higher amounts than currently
advertised where ever more persistent banding of snow occurs,
which could push totals over 18".
In addition to the heavy snowfall, as the low deepens Sunday
night into Monday, winds will begin to ramp up, with gusts 30-40
mph for inland areas, and up to 55 mph possible along the
coast. The snow will be heavy, wet, and sticky until later in
the event. However, blowing and drifting of snow is certainly a
concern, especially closer toward the coast where winds will be
strongest.
Given the increasing potential for significant snowfall
amounts, we have upgraded the Winter Storm Watch to warnings,
mainly for NJ, DE, and SE PA areas where near a foot or more of
snow is currently forecast. Along the Atlantic coast, Blizzard
Warnings were issued to highlight to potential for significant
blowing and drifting of snow, whiteout conditions, and strong
winds during the storm. True, verifiable blizzard conditions are
historically difficult to achieve inland, but we`ll continue to
monitor the forecast trends.
For our far western counties in eastern PA and northeastern MD,
Winter Storm Watches remain in effect. Forecast totals are
lower in these areas, and confidence in reaching warning
criteria is lower for those areas at the moment.
Stay tuned for updates as changes to the snowfall forecast
occur today through tonight. This storm could cause major
impacts to our region, and exact details still need some
refinement.
FXUS61 KPHI 211211
AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
711 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Confidence has increased for heavy snowfall and potential for
blizzard conditions to impact the region.
Blizzard Warnings and Winter Storm Warnings issued for portions
of the area, in effect Sunday through Monday. A Winter Storm
Watch remains in effect for portions of eastern PA and
northeastern MD.
The Gale Watch was upgraded to a Storm Watch for the Atlantic
coastal waters and lower Delaware Bay.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. A major winter storm Sunday through Monday is expected to
bring heavy snowfall and potential for blizzard conditions to
portions of the area.
2. Widespread coastal flooding is expected with Sunday night`s
high tide cycle. Moderate coastal flooding likely for much of
the coast with near major flooding possible. Further tidal
flooding may linger into Monday as well.
3. Remaining unsettled into the second half of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A major winter storm Sunday through Monday is
expected to bring heavy snowfall and potential for blizzard
conditions to portions of the area.
A potent H5 trough centered over the Midwest today will shift
eastward towards the region tonight into early Sunday morning.
At the surface, low pressure will begin to develop over the
southeastern US in the exit region of the trough. From there,
the low is expected to deepen rapidly as it tracks northeastward
off the Mid- Atlantic Coast through Sunday afternoon and into
Sunday night.
Some discrepancies remain amongst model guidance, with the GFS
and NAM maintaining a track closest to the coast, and most
significant snowfall accumulations across the entire region. The
ECM remains farther offshore and a bit weaker with the system
overall, but there remains a northwestward shift over the past
few model runs. Other deterministic guidance generally falls
into one of these two camps, but both outcomes would result in
significant accumulating snow across at least some portions of
the area. Ensemble suites continue to feature a consensus in a
low track that will be close enough to the coast to bring
potentially significant impacts from snow, winds, and coastal
flooding. In addition to the surface cyclone off the coast, an
inverted trough is depicted in most guidance, though there is
some variance in its placement and intensity. However, these
features tend to increase snowfall amounts and rates where they
set up.
The current expectation is for light precipitation to begin
overspreading the region from southwest to northeast some time
late tonight into early Sunday morning. As the low begins to
approach from the southwest Sunday morning and into the
afternoon, precipitation rates should begin to increase.
Temperatures during the daytime hours on Sunday are expected to
be fairly mild, so precipitation could end up being be rain or a
rain and snow mix for areas near and south of the I-78 corridor
through midday before precip becomes heavier and a change to
snow occurs. The rain/snow mix line should move south toward the
coast and Delmarva fairly quickly Sunday afternoon and evening,
as colder air will begin to infiltrate the area in concert with
the heaviest precipitation rates. Therefore, precipitation is
likely to change to all snow, and be heavy at times. Snowfall
rates could exceed 2 inches per hour where the heaviest
accumulations are forecast. The heaviest snowfall is anticipated
to occur mainly Sunday evening through Sunday night, then begin
to taper off into the daytime hours Monday. Snow will likely
come to an end from west to east sometime Monday afternoon.
Total forecast snow accumulations have increased substantially
across the board. Generally forecasting a widespread 8-18", with
the greatest amounts focused across New Jersey and adjacent
areas of southeastern Pennsylvania (including the Philadelphia
metro area). There will likely be a sharp cutoff in the highest
amounts toward our western and southern most zones across
eastern PA and Delmarva. This is where some guidance still
indicates snowfall amounts could fall short of warning criteria.
There could certainly be locally higher amounts than currently
advertised where ever more persistent banding of snow occurs,
which could push totals over 18".
In addition to the heavy snowfall, as the low deepens Sunday
night into Monday, winds will begin to ramp up, with gusts 30-40
mph for inland areas, and up to 55 mph possible along the
coast. The snow will be heavy, wet, and sticky until later in
the event. However, blowing and drifting of snow is certainly a
concern, especially closer toward the coast where winds will be
strongest.
Given the increasing potential for significant snowfall
amounts, we have upgraded the Winter Storm Watch to warnings,
mainly for NJ, DE, and SE PA areas where near a foot or more of
snow is currently forecast. Along the Atlantic coast, Blizzard
Warnings were issued to highlight to potential for significant
blowing and drifting of snow, whiteout conditions, and strong
winds during the storm. True, verifiable blizzard conditions are
historically difficult to achieve inland, but we`ll continue to
monitor the forecast trends.
For our far western counties in eastern PA and northeastern MD,
Winter Storm Watches remain in effect. Forecast totals are
lower in these areas, and confidence in reaching warning
criteria is lower for those areas at the moment.
Stay tuned for updates as changes to the snowfall forecast
occur today through tonight. This storm could cause major
impacts to our region, and exact details still need some
refinement.
12z NAM has precip breaking out in NJ between 10am-12pm. May be mixed at first or trouble sticking but really by mid afternoon everyone should be off the roads
12z NAM insane
16-24 north of 95
24-36 south of 95
16-24 north of 95
24-36 south of 95
She might be able to make it with no precip but there could be some rain or non accumulating snow around on major roads. If she doesnt mind driving in that she could be okay. Definitely be aware of any changes to start time throughout the day
Seems like it will be too warmI'm calling a bust of less than 4" at the shore. Just a hunch. I hope this is not a jinx.
12z RGEM is 6-12 north of 78. 8-14 for everyone. Totals bumped a bit but remains least snowiest model
They keep moving back the start of this storm. Corey's home from Rutgers Newark this weekend, picked him up last night. Normally I drop him Sunday evening, already told him yesterday it'd be earlier in the day Sunday. Now.........maybe drop him Sunday morning or late tonight?
Best of luck everyone, stay safe. I feel your pain here. Coldest morning of the year, going to have to bundle up when walking the dog.
Plans on staying a couple of days? If she doesn’t like driving in bad weather why would she be travelling during a storm that will take 2 days to leave the area?
Just woke up from a nap and my wife and I are listening to Ed Wong on WRSU, as tonight is the 19th Melody Reunion (helped Ed out with moving/setting up at the Elks last night); he still has my favorite radio show anywhere. Anyway, just looked at the insane NAM and HRRR runs - if any of these bomb models actually verify, we're talking 2-3 feet of snow, which would be paralyzing, like Jan-96 or 12/26/2010 (Boxing Day Blizzard) and a few others. It's not a fantasy, but hard to "predict" that as a forecaster, which is why I still think the NWS forecast of 8-12" NW, 12-16" for 95 and 16-20" for the coast as an "average" between the bombs and the less snowy camp.
And nothing has changed at 12Z to make anyone want to change their forecasts, IMO other than maybe adding an inch or two because the Euro just had its best run; also the Euro bumping up snowfall 2-3" across the board will certainly give comfort to forecasters worrying about a major bust, led by the Euro, which has been a concern since that weak run at 0Z last night. Anyway here's the usual model summary below - will update as models come out...
Keep in mind these are all at 10:1 ratios: ratios should be less than that for the first several hours with marginal temps, but then as temps drop below 32F and intensity goes up ratios should go above 10:1 and could go well above that for most with great dendrite formation aloft - but with fairly high winds, dendrites might break up negating that. Since predicting ratios can be such a crap shoot, I usually just use the 10:1 numbers, but if we don't get a lot of breakage, 12-15: ratios are more likely for at least the 2nd half of the event. We'll see.
- 12Z NAM is an historic bomb w/ a 24" line from New Hope to SI and 16-24" NW of that line and 24-36" SE of that
- Very similar to 6Z and amazingly, the last 4 runs have been like this.
- 12Z HRRR is out of its range, but it shows 12-24" for most just through 7 am Monday
- 12Z RGEM has 5-8" NW, 8-12" for 95, and 12-16" towards the coast (1-2" up from 6Z)
- 12Z ICON has 7-9" NW, 9-13" for 95 and 13-16" towards the coast (fairly similar to 6Z)
- 12Z GFS has 12-16" NW, 16-22" for 95 and 22-26" for parts of the coast (close to historic and fairly similar to 6Z)
- 12Z AIGFS has 8-11" NW, 11-15" for 95 and 15-20" towards the coast (2-3" less than 6Z - less precip)
- 12Z CMC has 5-9" NW, 9-13" for 95 and 13-17" towards the coast (1-2" more than at 0Z)
- 12Z UK roughly (it has some odd precip pockets) has 8-12" for NW to 95 and 12-16" for 95 to the coast (similar to 0Z)
- 12Z HREF (first time the model has a complete storm run) has 12-16" NW, 16-22" for 95 and 22-28" towards the coast
- 12Z Euro-AIFS is 7-10" NW, 10-13" for 95 and 13-17" towards the coast (about 1" more than 6Z)
- And last but not least, the 12Z Euro has 7-9" NW, 9-12" for 95 and 12-15" towards the coast - this is the snowiest Euro run yet (another 2-3" increase).
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I think if the euro comes in similar to how it was and how the canadian, reggie and likely the ukie, NWS and tv mets will pretty much keep their amounts of 8-16. GFS backed off ever so slightly and thats a tough gradient for nw jersey. There could be some similarities to Boxing Day although it wont be the same north to south gradient. Coastal areas have consistently shown up in the sweet spot on almost every model
Agreed, smells like a bust. Warm temps, changeover from rain, hmm.....I'm calling a bust of less than 4" at the shore. Just a hunch. I hope this is not a jinx.
already in SC and will be down in Panama City Beach first 2 weeks of March myself. Weather this month has been a bit warmer than past years but much less sun. Most days overcast and rainy today , tomorrow, and back into upper 40's for Monday - Tuesday before finally hitting Sun and 60's for last few days of feb. We are certainly hoping for some really nice weeks in Fla. before trekking back home late March.
I agree that short of a big change from the Euros, there's nothing at 12Z that will likely change any forecasters minds. That wasn't in the version you quoted, as I update that as the models come out and just added that.