OT: Weekend snowstorm - historic blizzzard
- Thread starter Mikemarc
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this was before the euro run - which I think will make all forecasters bump up.
Good point, hadn't noticed that. Was just talking to a friend about her trip to DC on Sunday from Edison, so I may go back and tell her to check back tomorrow night and leave earlier if needed (she was planning on leaving here at 10 am).
It doesn’t seem to be that cold for this, cold enough to snow but temps in the low 30’s . I would say it will probably be more toward wet/heavy than light/fluffy.
Yikes had not been paying attention at all to this storm but looks like it’s another doozy for the winter that won’t quit
Heading to the free state of Florida tomorrow just in time!
Funny this storm is not as hyped as the one in January we got. My wife just got back from food shopping and said the store was kinda dead. The one in January she tried going on a Friday and couldn't find a spot in the parking lot at the Hamilton Shop Rite. From what I'm seeing this one has the potential to be way worse as far as totals
1/25 was much easierto model so we knew it would be big for days. Until this afternoon most forecasters thought this would be a minor to moderate storm, if that and it had ramped up very quickly, so people haven't been paying attention.
This has the potential for a lot more snow, but not necessarily a lot more frozen precip. We had 1.5-2.0" of frozen precip on 1/25 but half of that was sleet. That amount with decent ratios (2nd half of storm at least) could be 20-25" of snow. The 30 plus inch snow amounts aren't realistic IMO. But cleanup and melting of this one will go far faster (less dense/surf area and way warmer temps).
Isn’t the NAM considered one of the better models the closer we get to the storm? We are well within 48 hours. That seems close to me
Nam is known for being too amped up but its being taken seriously given its close to gfs
I think getting the other models aboard would give high confidence in a historic snowstorm. They arent quite there yet
Lee Goldberg just had 8-12 for most NJ and 12+ for the southeastern coastal areas.
Rgem 7-11
Canadian coming more west upping totals 7-10 moving to 15 at coast...thats a big increase for coastal sections
Canadian coming more west upping totals 7-10 moving to 15 at coast...thats a big increase for coastal sections
They should be until tomortow
There are still models with half that of nam and gfs. I think they really want to see the Eurp come on board.canadian moving but still not there yet
Ukie 9 in Somerset County to 15.at coast ..definitely tucked in more here..may be ready to bow. These are significantly higher amounts than last 2 runs
In addition to the reasons mentioned above.
The January storm covered a huge portion of the country, this one is more regional.
I think the cold on the back side of the first storm made for a more interesting story as well
There’s a weather guy on Twitter who I have been following who to his credit has been preaching a massive storm for the past week or so.
His latest forecast is 18-24 inches in central nj and the coast.
Ugh !
His latest forecast is 18-24 inches in central nj and the coast.
Ugh !
Great points. The prior storm was crippling and worse for folk outside NJ
And thank goodness it’s late February and warmer in general after Tuesday.
Men. Anyone can say that. Thing is people remember when they are right but everyone forgets when hes wrong.
Can't believe one of you guys that hates snow hasn't posted about the Euro crapping the bed just now, shifting 50 miles east with the heavy snow, leaving NW of 95 at 2-4", 05 at 4-6" and towards the coast at 6-9". This is after almost every other mode got snowier at 0Z with several models being big bombs. If this wasn't the Euro, everyone would be, don't worry it's an outler, but since it's the Euro the wailing and gnashing of teeth has begun on the boards.
Personally, I think it's just an outlier, which happens, but I'm certainly concerned that maybe the Euro is on to something and maybe we're going to see shifts back to much less snowy outcomes, although there's nothing I can do about it, so I'll just wait to see what 6Z brings. I'll admit I have been thinking we haven't had a ginormous bust inside 36 hours probably since Jan-2015 and have been wondering if we'll see one again, especially with AI being so good at pattern recognition. Maybe it was a one time Euro blip or maybe it's the start of big step back or maybe the Euro is truly an outlier. Tracking big ones is never boring.
Personally, I think it's just an outlier, which happens, but I'm certainly concerned that maybe the Euro is on to something and maybe we're going to see shifts back to much less snowy outcomes, although there's nothing I can do about it, so I'll just wait to see what 6Z brings. I'll admit I have been thinking we haven't had a ginormous bust inside 36 hours probably since Jan-2015 and have been wondering if we'll see one again, especially with AI being so good at pattern recognition. Maybe it was a one time Euro blip or maybe it's the start of big step back or maybe the Euro is truly an outlier. Tracking big ones is never boring.
You beat me to it
Ai is 8-12 with more to coast
3-4 inches on Euro with very tight gradient...wow
This is why forecasters arent biting on higher amounts
There are still enough models showing 8-12 or in the case of the Euro even half that
Ok, time for the 0Z model post and general commentary, but the big issue is what I just posted about - the Euro taking a large step back in snowfall as it moved its track ~50 miles east dragging the precip shield with it leaving only 2-3" for NW of 95, 3-5" for 95 and 5-8" towards the coast, which most snow lovers would've killed for as an outcome just 24 hours ago. As I said in that post, the most logical explanation is an outlier as the last 17 model runs over the last 2 suites gave a minimum of 6-10" for 95 with close to half of those showing at least 12-18" for 95. But it's the Euro and many will panic, because it is possible it's found something and will lead a retreat in snowfall from the other models. We won't know for awhile.
Regardless, I'm sure with the many big bombs at 18Z and 0Z many forecasters might have been tempted to make big jumps in their snowfall forecasts, but I think the Euro will scare off many of them until we know what this all means. I'm still good with the 4-6"NW of 95, 6-9" for 95 and 9-12" for the coast, which is very close to what the NWS has now, but until the Euro I had also been thinking the NWS would go up 2-4" across the board to something like 6-8" for NW of 95, 8-12" for 95 and 12-16" for the coast, but probably not now.
Anyway, it's always worth noting the range of potential outcomes and it's pretty clear that 12-24" amounts for most, especially near the coast, are very possible, as we've seen that and more in a few models and on the other end just 24 hours ago we were seeing many models only showing a few to several inches and that still can't be ruled out either, along with everything in-between. Even though we're only 36 hours from the start of the event, the uncertainty remains very high. So here are the 0Z model comments.
- 0Z NAM was snowmageddon with 12-20" NW of 95 and 20-36" from 95 to the coast. That would be historic.
- 0Z ICON has 12-16" for 95/NW and 16-22" from 95 to the coast. Pretty big and a significant bump up from 18Z.
- 0Z RGEM has 5-7" for NW of 95, 7-9" for 95 and 9-12" for the coast (increased 1-2" vs 18Z).
- 0Z CMC has 6-8" for NW of 95, 8-10" for 95 and 10-16" towards the coast
- 0Z GFS is 14-24" N of 276/195 and 24-30" S of 276/195. Would also be historic (and similar to 18Z)
- 0Z AIGFS had 8-12" NW of 95, 12-18" for 95 and 18-22" towards the coast (same as 18Z)
- 0Z UK was 8-12" NW of 95 and 12-16" for 95 towards the coast (a 2-4" bump up from 12Z)
- 0Z Euro-AIFS is 6-8" NW of 95, 8-12" for 95 and 12-16" towards the coast (a 2-3" decrease from 18Z)
- 0Z Euro shows 2-4" NW of 95, 4-6" for 95 and 6-9" towards the coast (a 2-4" decrease from 18Z).
- 0Z NBM was 16-22" NW of 95 and 22-28" from 95 towards the coast, which is huge for a model blend
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Local stations in Philly agree on the coast being hit hard and from the start they agreed from the start that the snow part of this storm doesn't start until late afternoon. Before that light rain or mix. After that they are all over the place. 6ABC is talking a blizzard for Ocean County and Monmouth as the winds will be big time. One talked about the current big difference between the models at this time with 24 hours to go.
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