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Expected Points Update as of 2/16/26 - The "Hah, Hah. Wasn't December Funny?" Edition

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Wrestleknownothing

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Oct 30, 2021
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I remember two months ago when Christmas was coming, the goose was getting fat, and Penn State was begging for pennies with an old man's hat. Kids, there was a time, that seems so quaint now, when PSU was locked in a dead heat with anOSU and Iowa for expected first place. You are probably too young to remember it, but I swear it happened.

Things have changed a bit. In fact they have changed enough that we have a few extra graphics for this edition.

Team Points

1771366636453.png

No news here.


Bonus Content
OK, so we already know about the team points. But what about the other stuff that is only fun for Penn State fans?

While the expected AAs "only" sit at 8.4, that is still a fair amount more than the next closest team (Oklahoma State 5.9).

The probability really falls off a cliff at nine AAs. Poor Braeden Davis is holding PSU back on the probability of ten AAs. But, I am sure he has other plans.



Expected finalists is pretty high too at 5.1.

I know, I know. You wanted me to say 10, but these are based on field probabilities. For the students in the crowd that want to adjust to PSU-specific probabilities I leave that as an independent study project.



Expected champions is a new one. Here the total is sure to disappoint this board again at 3.1 (another independent study opportunity - I give and I give), but remember, that is far and away the most of any team.

Penn State will just have to prove me wrong and show they are right tail kinda guys who look at the ~3.6% chance of breaking that particular record and say "hold my beer".*



*No, that is not another Braeden Davis reference.
 
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Sunshine88!

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ā€œDonā€™t eat the Rat Poison by mediaā€ā€¦.Quote by Nick Saban. Very important time of the year. Stay Focused and get stronger and better everyday.
 
Psalm 1 guy

Psalm 1 guy

All-Conference
Nov 3, 2019
1,161
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Wrestleknownothing said:
I remember two months ago when Christmas was coming, the goose was getting fat, and Penn State was begging for pennies with an old man's hat. Kids, there was a time, that seems so quaint now, when PSU was locked in a dead heat with anOSU and Iowa for expected first place. You are probably too young to remember it, but I swear it happened.

Things have changed a bit. In fact they have changed enough that we have a few extra graphics for this edition.

Team Points

View attachment 1190411

No news here.


Bonus Content
OK, so we already know about the team points. But what about the other stuff that is only fun for Penn State fans?

While the expected AAs "only" sit at 8.4, that is still a fair amount more than the next closest team (Oklahoma State 5.9).

The probability really falls off a cliff at nine AAs. Poor Braeden Davis is holding PSU back on the probability of ten AAs. But, I am sure he has other plans.



Expected finalists is pretty high too at 5.1.

I know, I know. You wanted me to say 10, but these are based on field probabilities. For the students in the crowd that want to adjust to PSU-specific probabilities I leave that as an independent study project.



Expected champions is a new one. Here the total is sure to disappoint this board again at 3.1 (another independent study opportunity - I give and I give), but remember, that is far and away the most of any team.

Penn State will just have to prove me wrong and show they are right tail kinda guys who look at the ~3.6% chance of breaking that particular record and say "hold my beer".*



*No, that is not another Braeden Davis reference.
Click to expand...
"Independent study project"? That sounds an awful lot like homework! I am also sure I was promised when I transferred over to this forum that there would be no math : )
 
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S

Sandy2176

Freshman
Nov 1, 2025
96
91
18
Wrestleknownothing said:
I remember two months ago when Christmas was coming, the goose was getting fat, and Penn State was begging for pennies with an old man's hat. Kids, there was a time, that seems so quaint now, when PSU was locked in a dead heat with anOSU and Iowa for expected first place. You are probably too young to remember it, but I swear it happened.

Things have changed a bit. In fact they have changed enough that we have a few extra graphics for this edition.

Team Points

View attachment 1190411

No news here.


Bonus Content
OK, so we already know about the team points. But what about the other stuff that is only fun for Penn State fans?

While the expected AAs "only" sit at 8.4, that is still a fair amount more than the next closest team (Oklahoma State 5.9).

The probability really falls off a cliff at nine AAs. Poor Braeden Davis is holding PSU back on the probability of ten AAs. But, I am sure he has other plans.



Expected finalists is pretty high too at 5.1.

I know, I know. You wanted me to say 10, but these are based on field probabilities. For the students in the crowd that want to adjust to PSU-specific probabilities I leave that as an independent study project.



Expected champions is a new one. Here the total is sure to disappoint this board again at 3.1 (another independent study opportunity - I give and I give), but remember, that is far and away the most of any team.

Penn State will just have to prove me wrong and show they are right tail kinda guys who look at the ~3.6% chance of breaking that particular record and say "hold my beer".*



*No, that is not another Braeden Davis reference.
Click to expand...
Do you really have to cut Davis. That's terrible!
 
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W

Wrestleknownothing

All-Conference
Oct 30, 2021
1,711
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98lberEating2Lunches said:
Where is the migraine inducing projected points over Flo rating time line chart???!!!

These barcharts are BS!!!
Click to expand...
Careful what you wish for.

Confused Always Sunny GIF by It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia
 
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tullfan68

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Jun 20, 2021
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can't wait to see how bad PSU gets screwed in the pairings as they dont want them to break the record again!
 
W

WV lion

All-Conference
Oct 17, 2021
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tullfan68 said:
can't wait to see how bad PSU gets screwed in the pairings as they dont want them to break the record again!
Click to expand...
Only so much they can do to screw any team over. The formula isn't perfect but it limits that. And the cream always rise to the top. Carter title #4.
 
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gimb14

All-American
May 3, 2022
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I was thinking ahead after the OSU match...I think you can make a case for 10 finalists next year if Mirasola continues to improve.

LL
Blaze
Ono
SVN
Kasak
Mitch
Henckel
Welsh
Barr
Mirasola
 
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Efejle

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Apr 30, 2023
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Guns made all of this irrelevant long, long ago when he went full mic drop with the epic 8 scoring wrestlers thread. šŸ˜‚
 
R

Random4598375

All-Conference
Jan 10, 2020
605
1,755
93
gimb14 said:
I was thinking ahead after the OSU match...I think you can make a case for 10 finalists next year if Mirasola continues to improve.

LL
Blaze
Ono
SVN
Kasak
Mitch
Henckel
Welsh
Barr
Mirasola
Click to expand...
It's hard for me to immediately pencil Henckel in as a finalist. Probable AA, sure, but let's pump the brakes just a little here until we see a full season from him. For 10 finalists, you could sell me on Kasak, Duke, Mitch, Welsh, but I really doubt Mesenbrink is going to bump up.
 
I

IoffendwithTruth1

Sophomore
Feb 13, 2026
78
125
33
Random4598375 said:
It's hard for me to immediately pencil Henckel in as a finalist. Probable AA, sure, but let's pump the brakes just a little here until we see a full season from him. For 10 finalists, you could sell me on Kasak, Duke, Mitch, Welsh, but I really doubt Mesenbrink is going to bump up.
Click to expand...
Can't sell you on Luke, Blaze, SVN or Barr?
 
G

gimb14

All-American
May 3, 2022
4,008
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Random4598375 said:
It's hard for me to immediately pencil Henckel in as a finalist. Probable AA, sure, but let's pump the brakes just a little here until we see a full season from him. For 10 finalists, you could sell me on Kasak, Duke, Mitch, Welsh, but I really doubt Mesenbrink is going to bump up.
Click to expand...
Pretty sure Duke redshirt is happening. My henckel comment is from talking to someone who knows a lot more about him than I do
 
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Random4598375

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gimb14 said:
Pretty sure Duke redshirt is happening. My henckel comment is from talking to someone who knows a lot more about him than I do
Click to expand...
Thatā€™s fine, and I donā€™t think MM wants to bump to 174 anyway, but itā€™s hard for me to look at Henckel as a likely finalist without seeing him in some real matches first, so Iā€™m just saying, if thatā€™s the way it goes, then Iā€™m going to pump the brakes on 10 finalists for now.
 
N

Nitlion1986

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Apr 13, 2024
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Random4598375 said:
Thatā€™s fine, and I donā€™t think MM wants to bump to 174 anyway, but itā€™s hard for me to look at Henckel as a likely finalist without seeing him in some real matches first, so Iā€™m just saying, if thatā€™s the way it goes, then Iā€™m going to pump the brakes on 10 finalists for now.
Click to expand...
9 finalists I think would be pretty good.
 
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98lberEating2Lunches

98lberEating2Lunches

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Feb 11, 2018
770
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@Wrestleknownothing, will Penn State outscore the field at NCAAs?

Can your projections predict this?

Which championship teams, if any, had outscored the field?

If not obvious, by the field I mean, the top points getter at every weight that is not a member of the team champions?

Is outscoring the field more or less frequent than setting a new points record (adjusted or not šŸ˜ƒ)?

Is the degree a team outscored the field the truest measure of dominance in a year?
 
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gimb14

All-American
May 3, 2022
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Random4598375 said:
Thatā€™s fine, and I donā€™t think MM wants to bump to 174 anyway, but itā€™s hard for me to look at Henckel as a likely finalist without seeing him in some real matches first, so Iā€™m just saying, if thatā€™s the way it goes, then Iā€™m going to pump the brakes on 10 finalists for now.
Click to expand...
I'm not saying it will happen
 
W

Wrestleknownothing

All-Conference
Oct 30, 2021
1,711
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98lberEating2Lunches said:
@Wrestleknownothing, will Penn State outscore the field at NCAAs?

Can your projections predict this?

Which championship teams, if any, had outscored the field?

If not obvious, by the field I mean, the top points getter at every weight that is not a member of the team champions?

Is outscoring the field more or less frequent than setting a new points record (adjusted or not šŸ˜ƒ)?

Is the degree a team outscored the field the truest measure of dominance in a year?
Click to expand...
In order:

Unlikely, but good question. I will take a look.

Projections- no but mining past results may help.

Got it.

Not sure. Stay tuned.

Maybe. I have that stat. It is a bit skewed in the early years when it was all about first place.

Also, it is possible for Penn State to win every weight and lose the title.
 
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Col

Col

Sophomore
Oct 17, 2021
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Wrestleknownothing said:
In order:

Unlikely, but good question. I will take a look.

Projections- no but mining past results may help.

Got it.

Not sure. Stay tuned.

Maybe. I have that stat. It is a bit skewed in the early years when it was all about first place.

Also, it is possible for Penn State to win every weight and lose the title.
Click to expand...
The last statement is a statisticians dream. A scenario so unlikely that it is probable the sun burns out first before it happens... but so interesting on what it can tell us. In this case it reinforces that bonus points are important and can and do make a huge difference... also it sucks to have a team point deducted.
 
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N

Nitlion1986

All-Conference
Apr 13, 2024
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Wrestleknownothing said:
In order:

Unlikely, but good question. I will take a look.

Projections- no but mining past results may help.

Got it.

Not sure. Stay tuned.

Maybe. I have that stat. It is a bit skewed in the early years when it was all about first place.

Also, it is possible for Penn State to win every weight and lose the title.
Click to expand...
You are spending too much time reading HR.
 
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