OT: Weekend snowstorm - historic blizzzard
- Thread starter Mikemarc
- Start date
Yeah but Sun is just as important. The last storm in January screwed family coming for my birthday. This weekend is the 1st time all can make it since.
So if we get hit there's no way to say it other than it'd be my fault.
As per NOAA, tonight’s 0z models will be the first to ingest in-situ dropsonde data as Recon is currently sampling the key shortwave trough (located just off the west coast) & its associated moisture plume today - this should help improve model accuracy (and reduce initialization errors which propagate in time to become significant errors.
to track the storm. But we all know that the NAM is useless at this time.
if it showed a solution good for snow - and numbers posted it - you’d mock him too saying it’s ridiculous to look at short range models 4 days from the event.
It's always your fault, you haven't figured that out already?Yeah but Sun is just as important. The last storm in January screwed family coming for my birthday. This weekend is the 1st time all can make it since.
So if we get hit there's no way to say it other than it'd be my fault.
Look at the positive. You can watch the golf all day Sunday without being bothered!
Are you kidding me? That sucks! Hopefully it's a whiff. No one wants this thing. Well most people don't want this thing.Yeah but Sun is just as important. The last storm in January screwed family coming for my birthday. This weekend is the 1st time all can make it since.
So if we get hit there's no way to say it other than it'd be my fault.
I just seems like that. Maybe the 2/15 non event is fresh in my head. It was shaping up the same way
Selective memory. Several of our biggest snowstorms in history showed snowmageddon 5-6 days out, then models diverged with most showing much less snow followed by reconvergence 2-3 days out and then boom. Most famous example was 12/26/2010, where most models were showing an out to sea solution for a couple of days and then the 0Z runs on Christmas Eve, 36 hours before the start of the event mostly all showed a raging blizzard. We were in Charlotte for Xmas and instead of leaving 12/26 in the morning we left after Xmas dinner and were caught in some heavy snow in NC going 25-30 mph in the one clear lane on 85 until we outran the storm around Durham. No way was I going to miss that storm from home. Even 1/25 looked like we'd be on the northern fringe of snow 5 days out, but the storm track shifted 300 miles north over the next 2 days putting us in the bullseye.
Except when it doesn't. Do you recall the storm of January 2026? A glance out your window may refresh your memory.
And you're near Belmar, right? The coast is more likely than anywhere, as of right now, of getting significant snowfall on Sunday-Monday, as many of the models have been showing a storm with heavy snow at the coast and moderate/lighter snow along 95 and especially well NW as their tracks are further offshore. But one change in your favor is that the start time has steadily moved later on Sunday, meaning significant snowfall might not happen until after sunset - if we get a storm, which is still in doubt.Yeah but Sun is just as important. The last storm in January screwed family coming for my birthday. This weekend is the 1st time all can make it since.
So if we get hit there's no way to say it other than it'd be my fault.
100% agree on why bother having weather threads if we're not going to talk about potential weather outcomes including possible precip amounts and types. Personally, I don't see much point in posting 10 snowfall maps every 6 hours for all of the models, as that would just clutter up the thread, but briefly summarizing what the models say and/or at least the model trends seems worthwhile.
That's an overstatement. The CMC ensembles are spot on with the CMC Op, and the Euro ensembles are even NW of the Op, but yes, the GFS ensembles have been well SE, on average vs. the GFS Op, indicating the GFS Op might be too far NW, but that changed with the 18Z GFS ensembles being in line with the Op. The AIFS ensembles are pretty close to the AIFS. Also, models don't ever "want" to do anything - they're not human, lol.
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Terrible tragedy as 8 experienced skiers (including some guides) died in an avalanche in Lake Tahoe (Castle Peak) with 1 still missing - several got out alive though - worst avalanche tragedy in US history. One of the rescuers lost his spouse in the avalanche - that has to be just brutal. They had to know how risky several feet of snow on top of crusty old snow could be.
https://www.latimes.com/world-natio...ine-skiers-missing-after-lake-tahoe-avalanche
https://www.latimes.com/world-natio...ine-skiers-missing-after-lake-tahoe-avalanche
The usual, fairly brief model summary at 18Z. Mostly snowier moves, except for the AIFS, but the most important move was the Euro now showing at least minor to moderate snow now vs. nada at 12Z. Note that the precip/snow is now starting late afternoon/early evening on Sunday not Sunday morning, any more.
- The ICON moved significantly NW and now has 1-3" for 95 and 3-6" towards the coast (and the run wasn't done yet)
- The GFS became even snowier with 6-10" for 95 (4-7" NW) and 10-18" towards the coast
- The Euro-AIFS moved SE and it shows less snow now, i.e., 1-2" for 95/NW and 2-4" towards the coast
- The Euro moved back NW about 100 miles and now has 1-3" NW/3-5" towards the coast - this was a major move back NW to where it was at 6Z.
- The GFS ensembles are in line with the Op, and both the Euro and AIFS ensembles lean a bit NW of the Op indicating some likelihood of the Op models moving NW.
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Were you eating CBD gummies? The Euro is a major improvement, moving ~100 miles NW with 1-3" for 95 (less N of 80) and 3-4" towards the coast. And the AIFS was 1-2" for 95 and 2-4" for the coast, which is less than 12Z, but not "barely anything." Your credibility suffers when you misrepresent what the models are showing.
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You were completely wrong on both the Euro and AIFS. I'll give you a pass since we're up 19 on PSU at the half and you were probably not paying attention.
the gfs is a longer range model. The NAM is short range. Theres a big difference.
but lets stay on topic
Not the worst in US history but certainly nasty one and big news story.
One in WA back in early 1900s killed nearly 100 people by derailing a train.
Just read about a train derailed that way in Swiss Alps a couple days ago ..don't think anyone was killed but a number injured. Similar big dump atop low base there as in Tahoe.
so you’re allowed to post about the GFS 12z at 1pm but I’m not allowed to post about the 18z at 7 pm. Gotcha.
No..youre the one saying the nam shouldnt be posted. I said its out of range. Posted to show where it currently sits and your bits got upset
Imagine quibbling about an inch vs 1.2 or 1.5 on a snow map 100 hours out
NOAA is running a recon plane into the system off the coast of Cali that will eventually become our storm and dropping dropsondes packed with instruments to gather data on the system, which will help the models have more accurate data for their calculations.
I didn’t say it should it shouldn’t be posted.
I just said it’s silly.
It’s pretty useless at the range as we can all agree.
Its all useless 100 hours out. Thats why these threads normal wouldnt begin until today
Long range models aren’t useless 100 hours out. Less precise, sure.
but they’re very valuable in determining big picture things - or at least narrowing down things - if a storm is coming, general area impacted, and timing.