Hockey! That's where I went wrong that week! Didn't play and zero skating skills.
I started snowboarding that same winter ... but that didn't help me that particular week. Was a great winter for it overall, though, surpassed only by '96.
OT: Spring Warmth, 3/5-3/12+? Winter 2025-26 - Patterns and Potential Winter Storms
- Thread starter RU848789
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I started snowboarding that same winter ... but that didn't help me that particular week. Was a great winter for it overall, though, surpassed only by '96.
I posted on Friday about how Dec and Jan were moderately colder than normal and wondered how cold the ongoing cold wave would likely be and now we have confirmation of how brutally cold the period from 1/24 through 2/9 was as well as how cold the first 9 days of February were vs. the historic record for the main climate stations in the NWS-Philly region. See the post below from the NWS.
Not according to the NWS and other sources - maybe 40-42F. But more importantly we now have the Euro showing a major snowstorm for Sun/Mon and the CMC showing a moderate/significant one (those are 2 of the best models and the CMC nailed the 1/25 event best), while the GFS and UK are misses well to the south (although the UK showed a monster storm 24 hours ago). The Euro-AIFS is also suppressed, but has moved 150 miles north today and its ensemble mean shows several inches of snow for us. We're 5 days out and I personally wouldn't start a thread on this yet, as this is a very marginal setup without great cold air in place, but we've seen examples like this in the past where phasing develops a very strong storm which produces dynamic cooling and snow.
But there was certainly enough complaining about 2 threads for the last 2 events that I'd be fine to go back to the new thread for an event approach (the single thread has worked great on TOS, which is part of why I liked that approach) - I don't really care if you start it or I do, but I'm thinking maybe we need another day or so and some demonstration that the other models are at least seeing something to avoid what happened on 2/1.
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/62557-february-2026-obs-discussion/page/55/
Well, most of NNJ/CNJ/SENY just got some freezing rain over the last couple of hours. Everything here is coated with a thin glaze of ice, although salted paved surfaces are fine, but unsalted ones are a bit slick and probably worse along/N of 78 where more freezing rain fell. Temps don't go above 32F for most until 7-9 am, so be careful if you're an early riser.
Thanks. Steps were a little slick and some sidewalk. But roads seemed okay going from No. Plfd. to NB at about 7:30 am.
Don't think so. Per Weather Channel
Flemington Sat 48 Sun 46 Mon 47 Tues 49 Wed 48 Thur 52
Low to mid 40s today then dropping back to 30s Thurs/Fri and back to mid to perhaps upper 40s. Watching a storm system later Sunday into Monday but would have to thread the needle to produce a snowstorm
Period 2/17-2/20 offers a crack at 50 or above. We shall see
Beyond that long range shows last week in February return to cold upper 30s. Many are honking on a warm first half to March
Period 2/17-2/20 offers a crack at 50 or above. We shall see
Beyond that long range shows last week in February return to cold upper 30s. Many are honking on a warm first half to March
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TWC this morning was talking about the potential for snow Sun/Mon in the Philly-NJ-NYC region, but noting the very high uncertainty and that it could be mostly rain or a complete miss. But snow is certainly on the table.
Doesn't seem like we got anything. Deck is dry. If we got anything it dried quickly.
I loved that ice storm. We were off for a whole week in Old Bridge as well. My parents have large hills in the woods behind their house, and the sledding was incredible. High speeds, nothing to slow you down like uneven snow can. And a slippery but easy walk for us because it was right behind our house. Great for a 10 year old.
Precip didn't really hit south of 78 and west of NB last night judging by the radar...
And the Euro completely backs off showing little precip for us and it's just rain, mostly to our south - the Euro has been much less consistent this year for reasons I can't explain. Every other model, except for the CMC, also has most of the precip as rain and to our south; the CMC still shows a few inches of snow for Sun/Mon. This is why I have been pessimistic on this threat, but given the huge uncertainty on the setup and the fact that the ensembles still have some members showing snow, the threat still bears watching (but not worrying too much).
OK Sherlock lol. I could have told you that...oh wait I did
I haven't seen NimberSan this excited since the Pornhub incident!
Back to the winter weather the sane people love.
It's almost over, but not quite. The 0Z Euro, CMC and EPS show a little snow (1" range), while the GFS, UK and AIFS all have very little precip (and it's rain) north of Dover to AC. Still 4 days out though, and the main players are still not over the CONUS yet (so poorly sampled) so will keep watching, but certainly not the trends one wants to see if you like snow.
Stop it. You are like a schoolboy spurred by your crush in grade school holding out hope.
If you had the tiniest understanding of science, probability and meteorology, you'd know that 4 days out uncertainty is high and while the probability of measurable snow is low right now, it's definitely not zero and that history is littered with examples of models showing little snow this far out, but then the setup evolves differently and we get snow. It's not "hope" it's probabilistic science.
You’re talking to a middle manager. Show some respect lol!
you would be weenie tagged on the weather boards and not just by me...you are literally the last one to turn the lights out as everyone else has already moved on
peeps finally going to able to get out of the house and take some much needed walks on Saturday. The warming trend continues for next week as we should get some signifcant melting of this nasty snow and ice. Tuesday offers potential of 50-55 with enough sun and generally a mild to warm week ahead. Cool down likely the following weeks with some days staying in 30s but many are believing March will open with some warmth. Its clear the brunt of winter is behind us. Two cold days today and tomorrow.
Nobody gets weenie tagged for laying out reasonable probabilistic scenarios like I did. But you've been banned occasionally for trolling so there's that. Also you might want to look at the 12z AIFS (significant snow for all Sun/Mon from the best model this year) and Euro (minor to moderate snow near and south of 276/195 from the best model for many years). Might need a thread after all, but I'd want to see other models come on board first and see that this wasn't just a blip.
Edit: Weathernext, Google's new AI model, which has scored quite highly, also has significant snow for the whole area. If this ends up being a real snowstorm, it might be remembered as the time the AI models had their biggest victory over the physics-based models. Also, AmericanWx has a thread on this already, which might be a bit premature.
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/62597-presidents-snow-potential/
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$100 says he starts another thread. This one is getting stale fast and he needs constant attention.
The Euro and Euro AIFS only show one day next week with temps even close to 50F (Tuesday) with most days having highs that are seasonable with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s, so the warm-up is nowhere near guaranteed, despite what most are forecasting. And warmth in the long term has been overmodeled all winter, so early March is still in question. There's also so much frozen mass still on the ground from the ~18 worth of "snow" that fell (and it's high density/low surface area, which slows melting considerably) that I'd be surprised to see it gone before the end of next week if the Euro/AIFS are right - and especially not if we get some more snow this weekend.
Also, why would people need it to be that warm to go for a walk? My wife and I walk frequently even when it's cold (maybe not the brutally cold days with low wind chills) and I haven't stopped getting my exercise and enjoying being out in nature playing disc golf just because there's snow on the ground and it's cold. It'll be plenty warm in spring and summer.
Lee Goldberg says no to big snowstorm.
weather channel has 54 tuesday for me and just recently lowered temps back in low to mid 40s..could easily shift back
Also normal peeps arent taking walks when highs are in 20s and teens but arent you so tough
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At 0Z, the Euro-AIFS backed off a bit, now showing a moderate snow for most, while the Euro is a whiff again as are most other models with a couple showing <1" for CNJ and southward. That's close to dead, but not dead yet given how good the AIFS has been especially inside 4 days this winter. If it were only the GFS or UK showing some snow, I'd ignore it, but not the AIFS. Certainly not thread-worthy, but worth tracking still. Lee Goldberg said there might be some light snow south of 78. Tomorrow and Saturday look nice - enjoy them.
Im a "normal peep" and I take walks every day.
At 6Z, the AIFS has a later phase and has the significant snow offshore with <1" for our area, while every other model except one continues to show almost all of the precip well to the south of a Wilmington to AC line. That one is the ICON, which shows a significant snowstorm for our entire area - it has been showing up to an inch or so for a couple of runs, but this is way out of the blue and it's not a particularly good model. Given that 6Z and 18Z don't have as complete a data set input at 0Z and 12Z, I'll wait until 12Z today to officially declare this threat dead, assuming none of the models is showing much snow. If this holds, it would certainly take a bit of the luster off the Euro-AIFS.
I go away for 7 hours w/o internet access (disc golf most of the day) and all hell breaks loose, lol. Threat officially not dead. At 12Z, the Euro AIFS again showing a 4-7" event for most Sunday night and the 12Z Euro and GFS showed 1-2" between 78 and 276/195, so they're at least a bit on board with some snow, but the UK, CMC, NAM, RGEM are all still showing no precip/snow north of Philly. And just now the 18Z ICON is showing a 1-3" event between 276/195 and 80.
At this point, I'd say a minor event (1-2") is at least looking possible, although a whiff is still probably a 30-40% chance. NWS Philly wasn't buying the AIFS in its latest AFD either, as their snow map shows <1/2" of snow for all. Tough call, but if we do get some snow, it'll very likely be between 8 pm Sunday and 7 am Monday, with marginal temps in the low/mid-30s along 95 (32-34F), so the snow falling at night does give it a chance to accumulate on non-treated surfaces (would be tough at midday with borderline temps and the stronger mid-Feb indirect sunlight). And if the AIFS is right and we get 3+" of snow, that will be an incredible modeling coup as it's really been the only model the past few days off and on showing that much snow. Will be out most of the night with friends to see a band, so would personally wait until 0Z tonight to start a thread, but maybe it's worth it now, but no time for me.
https://www.weather.gov/phi
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/62557-february-2026-obs-discussion/page/67/
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
217 PM EST Fri Feb 13 2026
Low pressure will track along the Gulf Coast states this
weekend, emerging over the Southeast by Sunday evening. A warm
front will extend out from this low, and overrunning precip will
develop from south to north Sunday afternoon. The heaviest
precipitation will impact the area Sunday night, tapering off
Monday morning. The big question is going to be how far north
the precipitation gets. 12Z/13 NAM pretty much has precipitation
confined to Delmarva, while the 12Z/13 GFS is a bit farther
north with heavier QPF in Delmarva, and precipitation as far
north as into the Lehigh Valley. The 12Z/CMC is similar to the
NAM in that it keeps the system south. In terms of p- type,
generally looking at rain in Delmarva and extreme southern New
Jersey, and snow along and north of the I-95 corridor. 12Z/ECMWF
is similar to the GFS, and the 12Z ECMWF-AI remains an outlier
producing Warning level snowfall across the region. Since it is
an extreme outlier, will not factor the ECMWF-AI in the
forecast. With precipitation amounts heavier in the southern
portions of the area, generally expecting less than an inch of
snow where snow falls, mostly Sunday night into Monday morning.
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Had a minute before heading out, so here's the 18Z model suite summary. The Euro-AIFS now a 2-4" snowfall for most, the GFS went boom and now shows a 3-7" snowfall for most south of 78 (less north of there), the Euro/ICON are 1/2/1-3" from 276/195 to 80, and the UK is an inch or so for parts of CNJ, while only the NAM and RGEM are showing nada. Also, the Google AI model, Weathernext, is showing 2-4" for most and the GRAF (IBM's physics based model used by many mets) shows a 12"+ snowstorm for almost everyone and has started a meteorologist catfight on line over the sharing of this extreme outlier, lol.
I think the idea of a minor snowfall (1-2" with maybe 3" in spots is minor to me) between maybe Philly to Toms River and I-80 is gaining traction, but a whiff is still possible, but less likely as is a more significant storm (3"+). But that's a slightly educated guess. Lee Goldberg said some small accumulations are looking likely for NEPA/CNJ/NNJ (south of 80)/NYC/LI), but no map yet.