ESPN Bracketology (as of Mar 14): IOWA projected as a 9 Seed. Bracket Matrix (as of Mar 13) has IOWA as a 9 seed (consensus of 121 bracketologists)

Franisdaman

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1st objective is make the tourney. Win the next 2 games and they are locks. They could probably lose out and still make it give how relatively weak the bubble is this year. Last 6-8 teams in the field will be yuck. Slip up tomorrow and/or against MD and margin for error drops.

2nd objective would be to avoid 4/5 and 8/9 seed. So it’s a bit of a delicate dance.

Not sure about that.

I would hate to be 19-5 and then lose our next 8 (including first game of B1G Tournament). At 19-13, with an 8 game losing streak, that would be easy for the Selection Committee to leave us out of the Big Dance.

Luckily for us, with Ben as our coach, I think we finish the regular season at 22-9 (12-8), I then think we win at least one game in the B1G Tournament.
 

Franisdaman

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Exactly. Get an 8 seed, play Duke, lose, listen to fans complain about not making Sweet 16.

Tom Davis is right. He said that in the round of 32 you are going to play a good team. So making the Sweet 16 is not as easy as fans think; and sometimes you need some luck.
 

IowaCityLit

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Not sure about that.

I would hate to be 19-5 and then lose our next 8 (including first game of B1G Tournament). At 19-13, with an 8 game losing streak, that would be easy for the Selection Committee to leave us out of the Big Dance.

Luckily for us, with Ben as our coach, I think we finish the regular season at 22-9 (12-8), I then think we win at least one game in the B1G Tournament.
Good point. And true. But the bottom end of the at large pool is mediocre at best. So it’s all comparative. But yes, the optics and trajectory would be problematic.
 
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Franisdaman

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February 6, 2026 Update:

11 B1G teams, including IOWA, are currently projected by ESPN to make the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

ESPN has #7 seed IOWA vs #10 seed St. Mary's with the winner playing the winner of #2 Iowa State/#15 Wright State.

Seed/B1G Team:
1 Michigan
2 Illinois
2 Nebraska
3 Purdue
4 Michigan State
7 IOWA
9 Wisconsin
9 Indiana

10 UCLA (1 of Last 4 Byes)
10 USC (1 of Last 4 Byes)

11 Ohio State (LAST TEAM IN)

Other B1G Teams on the Outside, Looking in:
N/A


Link to the Full Feb 6, 2026 ESPN Bracket:




Bracket Matrix (as of Feb 5) has IOWA as an 8 seed.

When the brackets from 108 bracketologists are combined, Iowa is considered an 8 seed.

Link: http://www.bracketmatrix.com/


_____________________________________


ORIGINAL POST, on July 30, 2025:


I know it's early so if you don't like this topic, simply ignore this thread.

11 B1G teams, including IOWA, are currently projected to make the NCAA Tournament.

Seed/B1G Team:
1 Purdue
2 Michigan
4 Illinois
4 UCLA
5 Michigan State
6 Ohio State
7 Wisconsin
7 USC
7 Oregon
9 Maryland (1 of Last 4 Byes)
11 IOWA (1 of Last 4 in; in the Play-in Game vs #11 seed SMU with winner facing #6 Kansas in St Louis)


B1G Teams on the Outside, Looking in:

Washington--1st team OUT
Indiana--2nd team OUT
Nebraska--4th team OUT


Link to the Full July 29, 2025 Bracket:



Both Fook Wisconsin & Indiana needed a win today. Both are on the dreaded 8/9 line.



 

Hawksfor3

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This was the call that gave IU the win.


Jerry Seinfeld Popcorn GIF by Sheets & Giggles
 
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iahawkeyes17

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Tom Davis is right. He said that in the round of 32 you are going to play a good team. So making the Sweet 16 is not as easy as fans think; and sometimes you need some luck.
I read somewhere it has been decades and before dr tom era since Iowa faced a team in the tourney who beat a lower seed in any round. We’ve never had the luck of playing anyone who upset the better team.

year we lost in play in 14’ vs TN they got 11 seed and easily beat 6 seed UMass and got 14 seed Mercer who upset Duke and made it to sweet 16.
 

HawkInDenver

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I read somewhere it has been decades and before dr tom era since Iowa faced a team in the tourney who beat a lower seed in any round. We’ve never had the luck of playing anyone who upset the better team.

year we lost in play in 14’ vs TN they got 11 seed and easily beat 6 seed UMass and got 14 seed Mercer who upset Duke and made it to sweet 16.
Yeah, we're due for some good luck in the tourney for sure. Can't control any of that.
 

Franisdaman

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From yesterday:

Another bracketologist having IOWA as a 7 seed.

A potential matchup vs Houston in the Round of 32. Gulp.

Click or tap on images once or twice for a LARGER view.




 
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Franisdaman

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February 10, 2026 Update:

10 B1G teams, including IOWA, are currently projected by ESPN to make the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

ESPN has #7 seed IOWA vs #10 seed St. Mary's with the winner playing the winner of #2 Houston/#15 Navy.

Seed/B1G Team:
1 Michigan
2 Illinois
2 Nebraska
3 Purdue
3 Michigan State
7 IOWA
9 Wisconsin
9 Indiana

10 UCLA (1 of Last 4 Byes)
10 USC (1 of Last 4 Byes)


Other B1G Teams on the Outside, Looking in:
Ohio State (1st team OUT)


Link to the Full Feb 10, 2026 ESPN Bracket:





Bracket Matrix (as of Feb 9) has IOWA as a 7 seed.

When the brackets from 99 bracketologists are combined, Iowa is considered a 7 seed.

Link: http://www.bracketmatrix.com/
 

Franisdaman

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Yep. MASSIVE difference between playing a 1 or 2 seed and playing a 3 seed. Generally. Would rather wait to play those guys in the elite 8 or later. 😉

Gotta win tonight because the schedule gets much more difficult.

On paper, we would finish 3-5 with this remaining schedule.

@ Maryland
2/11 5:00 pm FS1


vs #13 Purdue
2/14 4:00 pm FOX


vs #7 Nebraska
2/17 8:00 pm BTN


@ Wisconsin
2/22 3:00 pm FS1


vs Ohio State
2/25 8:00 pm BTN


@ Penn State
2/28 11:00 am BTN


vs #2 Michigan
3/5 7:00 pm Peacock


@ #7 Nebraska
3/8 4:00 pm FOX
 

2D

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If we only win 2 of these last 7 games, what are the chances we even make it to the tournament? Obviously worst case scenario is losing out. But what's the bare minimum to get into the tournament? Not sure what model or tool people use, but I'd like to know.
 

Franisdaman

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If we only win 2 of these last 7 games, what are the chances we even make it to the tournament? Obviously worst case scenario is losing out. But what's the bare minimum to get into the tournament? Not sure what model or tool people use, but I'd like to know.

Not sure other than that would put us at 20-11 (10-10) heading into the B1G Tournament. And we might then be playing on the Wednesday of the B1G Tournament, which would suck.
 

Franisdaman

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If we only win 2 of these last 7 games, what are the chances we even make it to the tournament? Obviously worst case scenario is losing out. But what's the bare minimum to get into the tournament? Not sure what model or tool people use, but I'd like to know.

This 8 seed projection for Iowa in the BTT assumes Iowa has wins at Wisconsin, vs Ohio State and at Penn State (with losses in the 4 other B1G games).

Click or tap on image once or twice for LARGER view.

 
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Franisdaman

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This 9 seed projection for Iowa in the BTT assumes Iowa has wins vs Ohio State and at Penn State only.

Click or tap on image once or twice for LARGER view.

 
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HawkeyeGenius

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Unless Iowa gets a win in the next two, something tells me we're going to be sweating come Selection Sunday. Going 1-1 over these next two is a MUST.
 
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Franisdaman

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February 13, 2026 Update:

10 B1G teams, including IOWA, are currently projected by ESPN to make the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

ESPN has #8 seed IOWA vs #9 seed Texas A&M with the winner playing the winner of #1 UConn/#16 B-CU/Tennessee State.

Seed/B1G Team:
1 Michigan
2 Illinois
2 Purdue
3 Nebraska
3 Michigan State
8 IOWA
8 Wisconsin
9 Indiana

10 UCLA (1 of Last 4 Byes)

11 USC (1 of Last 4 in)


Other B1G Teams on the Outside, Looking in:
Ohio State (3rd team OUT)


Link to the Full Feb 13, 2026 ESPN Bracket:





Bracket Matrix (as of Feb 12) has IOWA as a 7 seed.

When the brackets from 113 bracketologists are combined, Iowa is considered a 7 seed.

Link: http://www.bracketmatrix.com/
 
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IowaCityLit

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I think the Hawks likely lose the next 3 and since all will be Q1osses they will be a 9-10 seed. Then they will have 2 must wins game at home against OSU and at PSU.
 

Franisdaman

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I think the Hawks likely lose the next 3 and since all will be Q1osses they will be a 9-10 seed. Then they will have 2 must wins game at home against OSU and at PSU.

Iowa drops to 18-7, 8-6.

Wisconsin is playing better.

Ohio State will come in on a Wednesday thinking they can knock us off.

Playing at Penn State always poses problems.

Will we get to 20 wins?

Our last 6 games:

vs #7 Nebraska (21-3)
Tues Feb 17 8:00 pm BTN


@ Wisconsin (17-7)
Sun Feb 22 3:00 pm FS1


vs Ohio State (16-8)
Wed Feb 25 8:00 pm BTN


@ Penn State (11-14)
Sat Feb 28 11:00 am BTN


vs #2 Michigan (23-1)
Thur March 5 7:00 pm Peacock


@ #7 Nebraska (21-3)
Sun March 8 4:00 pm FOX
 

IowaCityLit

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Iowa as an 8 seed in Lunardi’s bracket and in the Bracketmatrix compilation reflects 2 things:

1) Iowas resume, with its relatively strong NET and Kenpom metrics, is better than most fans realize relatively speaking. And somewhat durable. And…

2) This years bubble may be the weakest in over 2 decades. Committee gonna be turning over rocks to look for teams to put into this tourney.
 

Franisdaman

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February 17, 2026 Update:

10 B1G teams, including IOWA, are currently projected by ESPN to make the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

ESPN has #8 seed IOWA vs #9 seed Texas with the winner playing the winner of #1 Duke/#16 UT Martin.

Seed/B1G Team:
1 Michigan (Top Overall Seed)
2 Illinois
2 Purdue
4 Nebraska
4 Michigan State
7 Wisconsin
8 IOWA
9 Indiana

11 USC (1 of Last 4 Byes)

11 UCLA (1 of Last 4 in)


Other B1G Teams on the Outside, Looking in:
Ohio State (2nd team OUT)


Link to the Full Feb 17, 2026 ESPN Bracket:





Bracket Matrix (as of Feb 16) has IOWA as an 8 seed.

When the brackets from 113 bracketologists are combined, Iowa is considered an 8 seed.

Link: http://www.bracketmatrix.com/
 
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