While I would usually be inclined to agree with you, let’s consider the case of Lucas Byrd for a moment. Byrd has wrestled an absolute cupcake schedule thus far (one top-10 opponent, Ayala, nearly 3 months ago), and he hasn’t had a bonus point victory since mid-November. In fact, he has a putrid overall bonus rate of 20% (far less than Connor Pierce, Joe Sealey, Lucas Cochran, and Nate Desmond) and was almost beaten by both Blake Boorman and Dylan Shawver over the few last few weeks. He did (narrowly) beat Dillon Campbell and Ayala in November, but his schedule has been Creampuff City since then.
Anyone who has actually watched him wrestle this season and watched Davino and Blaze wrestle knows beyond a shadow of a doubt, that he is, at best, the 3rd best 133 in the B10. Barring a loss to Van Dee or Sean Spidle this weekend, I’d expect him to eke out a semi-final against Ayala in the B10 Tourney as the 1 seed. But there will be a reckoning in the B10 finals against either Blaze or Davino, and that loss should expose him to tougher matchups earlier at NCAAs. The Byrd I’ve watched wrestle this season is not making this year’s NCAA finals at this weight. He’ll be lucky to get 4th.