OT: Stock and Investment Thread
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Just got home from a work event. AMZN's report looks pretty damn good, but the market needs to flush from time to time.
Definitely on sale for long-term investors. FYI, I think GRNY is scheduled for its next quarterly rebalancing next week. Should be interesting to see the new additions and deletions!
I never need to look at the market. If you post in this thread on a given day, the market is red.In the end, earnings, and valuations compared to earnings, matter. Is it everything? No. It was a matter of time before the overpriced companies such as PLTR and other software companies corrected. And even though the mag 7 generate strong earnings, it’s unknown whether earnings growth will keep up with the spend. And from what we’ve seen, some of the Mag 7 valuations got excessive. I will now go back in my cave and hope for a better day tomorrow. And yes, I do have exposure to most of the Mag 7 and software companies. Just not excessive exposure, due to continuous rebalancing. And T2K, no need to beat me up. Although I’m sometimes bearish and you are almost always bullish, I’m sure you’ve done some rebalancing and more diversification along the way.
But post more often, you always provide good insights and conversation! Yes, I'm a growth/tech lean, but have plenty of value-focused investments (VIG, VTV, DODGX, MGV). And more recently, gold and energy.
I really think BTC's 4-year cycle has become a self-fulfilling prophecy. But hey, that makes buying and selling easy!
Could be. There’s a lot of them, no? Sell in May and go away, Santa rally, tax loss harvesting period, etcI really think BTC's 4-year cycle has become a self-fulfilling prophecy. But hey, that makes buying and selling easy!
No silver can be had in Dubai or Perth. Demand is high and supplies are low but price is down - silver games. US/Mexico collab setting up and should increase price. Mexico world's largest producer,
Good video gives lay of the land and where the
Good video gives lay of the land and where the
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Billions of dollars of manipulation, or if nothing else ridiculously abnormal volatility, and where is the CFTC? Perhaps Michael Selig should do his job?
BTC at 1.3 trilly mkt share. Amazing that people don’t see the Ponzi yet. Will darkweb criminals hold BTC just to attempt to keep the network solvent or will they hold stablecoins backed by gold and dollars?
BTC isn't anything close to a Ponzi (even if it was crooked). Social Security, now that's a textbook Ponzi.
You’re right. Ponzi’s generally generate at least some form of income stream.BTC isn't anything close to a Ponzi (even if it was crooked). Social Security, now that's a textbook Ponzi.
You’re right. Ponzi’s generally generate at least some form of income stream.
Personally, it’s a massive scam. But that’s totally debatable. Not saying I’m right. What it is = one of the greatest psychological experiments in history. no value - zero. Does nothing. Can’t even hold it. Just software code. not even blockchain tech. Inefficient. The list goes on. But some people believe it has value just like art and collectibles. So there you have it. The art market is the best example of creating a trillion dollar asset class from nothing (people slapping paint on a canvas) and making people believe it’s worth something.You’re right. Ponzi’s generally generate at least some form of income stream.
ffd
Crypto always seemed like a fairy tale to me - like the emperor with no clothes story (crypto isn't naked! lol). But I think modern paper money isn't much better so I can see where people didn't have to struggle with any contrast with paper money.
I saw a funny comment from an argument on a crypto article from crypto site - "LOL. So you're saying that that American-style "libertarian" bleating about fiat currency wasn't solved by creating the fiat-est fiat currency that ever fiat-ed?
"
I saw a good interview with Ed Dowd where he speaks about Tether putting $150 million into gold.com as it tries to hook-up digital focus with metals tie (Phygital’ Stack)
Dowd also says real estate bubble and AI bubble starting too really tip sketchy. China also tipping critical more than usual. I like Dowd because he's a "just the facts Ma'am" type. He doesn't goose people or use FUD (he sees downturns as opportunities).
www.cnbc.com
Crypto always seemed like a fairy tale to me - like the emperor with no clothes story (crypto isn't naked! lol). But I think modern paper money isn't much better so I can see where people didn't have to struggle with any contrast with paper money.
I saw a funny comment from an argument on a crypto article from crypto site - "LOL. So you're saying that that American-style "libertarian" bleating about fiat currency wasn't solved by creating the fiat-est fiat currency that ever fiat-ed?
"I saw a good interview with Ed Dowd where he speaks about Tether putting $150 million into gold.com as it tries to hook-up digital focus with metals tie (Phygital’ Stack)
Dowd also says real estate bubble and AI bubble starting too really tip sketchy. China also tipping critical more than usual. I like Dowd because he's a "just the facts Ma'am" type. He doesn't goose people or use FUD (he sees downturns as opportunities).
U.S. Economy A LOT Worse in 2026 ft. Ed Dowd
Amazon leads Big Tech’s $1 trillion wipeout as AI bubble fears ignite sell-off
Microsoft, Nvidia, Oracle, Meta, Amazon and Alphabet all saw their shares fall in the week up to the market close on Thursday.
www.cnbc.com
Chips running today on hyperscalers capex numbers but I wouldn’t be surprised if they develop their own. Why would they want to be hostages to chip manufacturers. Look what Google did with TPUs. That’s just the beginning I bet.
Guy got busted shorting 450 tons - more silver than exists on Shanghai Exchange. His account has been frozen.
They are developing their own already.
But the demand is such that the traditional chip companies still have a **** ton of business.
+1
It rallied through the tape today. Nice way to end the week. Software continued to underperform, but AMZN limited its losses and closed well above the low.
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No short term catalysts for software - until their earnings start making people look stupid for the sell off, those stocks are probably stuck in the mud. I don’t see that rotation back to software happening anytime soon especially if this new agent internet gets traction.
Interesting analysis on what is driving Walmart’s rise over the last few years. I wonder if other retailers can follow the playbook.
“Walmart just crossed $1 trillion in market cap and nobody can explain the P/E. The answer is sitting in one line of their earnings call.
CFO John Rainey said advertising and membership now generate 50% of Walmart’s incremental profit. Read that again. Half the profit growth is coming from a business that didn’t exist five years ago.
Walmart Connect did $4.4 billion in ad revenue in fiscal 2025 and grew 31% in Q1 FY26 before you even count VIZIO. Include VIZIO, and global ad revenue jumped 50% in a single quarter. The ad business alone is approaching the size of a mid-cap SaaS company, except it runs on 4,700 physical stores worth of first-party purchase data.
The market isn’t pricing Walmart as a retailer anymore. A grocery chain trades at 12-15x earnings. A retail media platform with closed-loop attribution, connected TV inventory, and 270 million weekly shoppers trades like a tech company. Because it is one.
Meta trades at 22x forward earnings with ad revenue growing ~20%. Walmart trades at 44x forward earnings with ad revenue growing 50%. The bull case is that Walmart’s ad business is earlier on its S-curve than Meta’s, and the total addressable market keeps expanding as every CPG brand shifts spend from linear TV to retail media.
The 20,000% all-time chart looks parabolic because the business model flipped. Walmart spent 60 years optimizing for pennies on grocery margins. Now it monetizes the traffic those groceries generate. Every dollar of ad revenue drops at software-like margins into a business doing $680 billion in sales.
The bear case is real: 46x trailing P/E on a company growing top-line revenue at 5% is a bet that advertising and marketplace fees compound for another decade without compression. If ad growth slows to 15-20%, the multiple contracts fast. But right now, the market is pricing the transition, and the transition is actually working.”
When does Walmart get moved out of the Staples sector? Sounds like Connect is AWS 2.0.
Numbers aside, Walmart’s image has massively changed in the last 5 years. Millionaires use Walmart+ for groceries and goods because the prices are outrageously low and the convenience factor is huge. It’s not just a store for trailer trash anymore. I still like Amazon as a company but Walmart has such a strong B&M and online presence I think it’s already won that race.
I think if the two of them battle it out for home delivery bulk, it could squeeze Costco.
Tech play, and thus an AI play?
And if the idea of AI is to get retail consumers to your platform, then I think Walmart could be a a strong AI play.
Just thinking aloud.
I don't own it.
Stock has tanked a bit from that level. Was above $20 and came back down to about $15. I bought some around $16 but average cost is still on the $11.50 range
Seems like EV momentum in the U.S. has come to a halt. Pretty much a Niche market especially on higher priced models. I have two hybrids and can’t imagine going with an all-electric unless the battery range goes way up or if I’m stuck with limited range the car has to be cheap.
Overall, good day for tech, but still some winners and losers:
www.cnbc.com
Oracle gains 9%, Microsoft climbs 3% as tech tries to bounce back from $1 trillion sell-off
AI hyperscalers had a bruising week after investors got jittery about huge expenditure outlooks.
www.cnbc.com
We’ve all seen this capex movie before. It’s telco part deux. Wireless was supposed to propel telcos to mobile phone domination and riches. Instead they had to constantly upgrade networks to deal with increased traffic demands = 2G…3G…4G…5G…? There are going to be a lot of losers in the AI chase. Not sure where Amazon lands when the dust settles. I never bet against Google. MSFT will have to give away Co-Pilot which is a problem especially because it sort of sucks. META probably safe thanks to ad dominance/social. I bet a new class of Mag7s will be born in this AI boom - who are the dark horses? The next Google of the world?Overall, good day for tech, but still some winners and losers:
Oracle gains 9%, Microsoft climbs 3% as tech tries to bounce back from $1 trillion sell-off
AI hyperscalers had a bruising week after investors got jittery about huge expenditure outlooks.
Let me know when you figure it out as I will pump all my into that company
That’s what we’re here to figure out! I want to see SHOP earnings this week because if they can figure the agentic/agent game it could be a massive retail player.Let me know when you figure it out as I will pump all my into that company
My mom just bought that stock last week. She owns her own software in the garment industry and thinks their investments in AI are going to be significant--she actually wants them to buy her company but also could be a threat to her business as well
Hope she’s right! I’ve been buying SHOP last week or so and currently in the red. I liked their AI agent pitch and can see them resonating with small/medium biz, especially those that want to escape Amazon.
Two ways to look at this:
1. Imagine if he wasn’t a criminal, he could have gone down as one of the best early stage investors of our time.
2. If he wasn’t a criminal maybe he wouldn’t have had the capital to place so many early stage bets.
Either way, still fascinating to see…
1. Imagine if he wasn’t a criminal, he could have gone down as one of the best early stage investors of our time.
2. If he wasn’t a criminal maybe he wouldn’t have had the capital to place so many early stage bets.
Either way, still fascinating to see…
SBF threw money (other people’s money) at a bunch of **** that’s just a list of what stuck. But he was definitely running in the right circles.