OT: Spring Warmth, 3/5-3/12+? Winter 2025-26 - Patterns and Potential Winter Storms
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It's accurate unlike the two terrible threads you started/ran.
Was it accurate when you posted on the 29th a map that had snow coming to Philadelphia, when most other and @bac2therac had already called it a whiff???
My thread was viewed and posted in for the storm more than the posts in your thread during same time period
Jelly or just petty or both
Bloop
These weather threads just get stranger and stranger.
I posted that map and said it was overdone and that maybe we'd get a mood coating for most and 1-2" at the coast and bac was saying about the same thing on the 29th. But at least I didn't start a thread on a complete whiff 5+ days out at a lead time where bac would always call me out for starting a thread that early. At that time I said we were more likely to not have a storm than have one and called out Cantore at that time as being irresponsible for hyping a potential blizzard that far out. And later that day said given the huge uncertainty, that I thought we wouldn't have clarity on a forecast until at least 3.5 days out (unlike 1/25, when we had pretty good consensus 5+ days out on a winter storm). And at 3.5 days out I was saying it was a 50% chance of a whiff and likely would've never started a thread for a threat like that.
You're also forgetting that I nailed the cold/snowy patterns for the first half of Dec and the second half of Jan over a week in advance, although the cold/snowy pattern prediction for the first half of Jan didn't verify. Two out of three on pattern predictions like that, especially for snow is quite good.
And I was very happy about that, since you had all the trolls in your thread, which made this the most pleasant weather thread I've ever had with almost no trolling. So thank you.
First off about you second paragraph. You always have said you don't make forecasts. So what is this "I nailed the.." whatever happened a month and a half ago.
As for last week you still believed in a chance, as you always do because that what do when every new station on Friday 5am had no chance for even Cape May. That post was
.Anyway did you see the pictures from Cape May Bay by Sunset Beach? The bay was was frozen solid to a couple hundred yards. That is entirely all salt water. Great video of the last ferry to Cape May, which service was brought back yesterday.
Funny thing was there were no trolls in bac' s thread as there was no wish casting. Who would have thunk!
First off about you second paragraph. You always have said you don't make forecasts. So what is this "I nailed the.." whatever happened a month and a half ago.
As for last week you still believed in a chance, as you always do because that what do when every new station on Friday 5am had no chance for even Cape May. That post was
Anyway did you see the pictures from Cape May Bay by Sunset Beach? The bay was was frozen solid to a couple hundred yards. That is entirely all salt water. Great video of the last ferry to Cape May, which service was brought back yesterday.
Every post on the 1/31 event I was less bullish than the NWS and most media. And pointing out low probability outcomes whether that's for no snow or a lot of snow isn't wishcasting, it's just math.
You're correct that I don't truly make forecasts, per se, on events, but I do pick and choose which pattern forecasts to bring to the board, as there are way more predictions out there for pattern x or y than I bring here, so in a sense, I kind of am forecasting when it comes to the pattern threads.
Yes, I've seen the crazy ice all over the place. I have a friend who lives 2 blocks from the ferry in Cape May and he sent me a few pictures. This is one of the coldest spells we've had in years and this weekend is going to be brutal and it can be dangerous - was tragic what happened to the fireman who fell into the Delaware and died. Sadly 119 people have died this winter due to hypothermia, CO poisoning, accidents, etc.
Here's a pic from Cape May - washed up from Delaware Bay, probably...
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Numbers, I was going to congratulate you on taking the high road and staying out of bac’s thread. But then you didn’t.
Well, I'd had enough of him and his brother trolling this one and I did wait until after the event, so as to not derail it.
Actually, all of the trolls were in his thread, thankfully. They just don't troll bac and it has nothing to do with the weather. Every one of them would've excoriated me for starting the 1/31 "event" thread so early with very little reason to do so (I would've never started a thread with such flimsy model support that far out) and would've piled on as the event kept dwindling, but that didn't happen to bac. Like I said, has nothing to do with the weather.
Back to the weather. For anyone curious, below is what Don S., a great poster on AmericanWx said in response to my question on how cold has this winter been so far (he's the data man).
Philadelphia's December-January mean temperature of 33.3° was the coldest such period since Winter 2010-2011 (31.0°). It was tied for the 48th coldest such period on record. New York City's December-January mean temperature of 32.1° was also the coldest such period since 2010-2011 (31.2°). It was also tied for the 48th coldest such period on record.
So, it's certainly been cold relative to our warmer climate now, as it's the coldest in 15 years, but being 48th coldest overall out of 155+ years of records in NYC and Philly, isn't "historic" cold, since the average temperatures (for NYC; Philly should be similar) have gone up by about 3.4F over the last ~90 years, as per the graphic below. Will be interesting to see how the ongoing cold wave ranks when it's over.
Philadelphia's December-January mean temperature of 33.3° was the coldest such period since Winter 2010-2011 (31.0°). It was tied for the 48th coldest such period on record. New York City's December-January mean temperature of 32.1° was also the coldest such period since 2010-2011 (31.2°). It was also tied for the 48th coldest such period on record.
So, it's certainly been cold relative to our warmer climate now, as it's the coldest in 15 years, but being 48th coldest overall out of 155+ years of records in NYC and Philly, isn't "historic" cold, since the average temperatures (for NYC; Philly should be similar) have gone up by about 3.4F over the last ~90 years, as per the graphic below. Will be interesting to see how the ongoing cold wave ranks when it's over.
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It was 56 in surfside Beach SC today..finally got out to have fun (wearing shorts lol) . Halfway down from jersey on Monday got text that heat was down and pipes frozen. Got it fixed. Er not. Heat broke overnight laat night and owner brought over 4 space heaters.
What a crazy winter. Sering it could be 2 degrees Sunday am up there..yikes.
What a crazy winter. Sering it could be 2 degrees Sunday am up there..yikes.
Everyone respects Bac and his content. Very accurate and to the point. He's the TKR Weather King!
Wassup with the thread title? ";
cold and snowy pattern for 2nd half of Jan verified"?
The winds tomorrow morning through midnight, gusting up to 60 mph at the coast and 50-55 mph elsehwere, will not only lead to dangerously cold wind chills, but will be strong enough to lead to some limbs and trees coming down, which could cause scattered power outages.
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I used to come to this site and these threads as my only source for storm forecasts. No more. All of the trolling and “he hit me first” nonsense is ridiculous and boring.
Bust as you called 1/2 to an inch. Like I said yawn.....dusting.
So that wishcast wasn’t verified? LOL.
low 40s showing up next week
Like manna from heaven
Like manna from heaven
I’ve never seen someone so wrong as that guy lol
I finally took the car out for a spin this afternoon. It felt like friggin Antarctica. I haven't felt that cold in a long time. The wind was awful. And the side streets were full of piles of dirty snow. I can't wait for it to melt away...whenever that may be. Reminded me of the old days living in an apartment in Newark where people would literally fight over a precious parking spot. Thank god for a driveway these days for me.
BTW, are they really projecting wind chills of -15 tonight ?
Winter sucks.
Also, 2025 was not a good year for me. But so far I'm not impressed with 2026.
BTW, are they really projecting wind chills of -15 tonight ?
Winter sucks.
Also, 2025 was not a good year for me. But so far I'm not impressed with 2026.