This is exactly what’s scaring the crap out of investors in enterprise software. Even if the whole thing is overblown it’s hard to pick the winners and losers.
OT: Stock and Investment Thread
- Thread starter RU05
- Start date
Another awesome report for Big Tech:
www.cnbc.com
Google parent beats on revenue, projects significant AI spending increase
Alphabet beat on the top and bottom lines in its fourth-quarter earnings report, and said it expects to significantly increase spending on AI in 2026.
www.cnbc.com
Surprised the platforms getting hit so hard…DOOR, PINS, ABNB…NFLX, SPOT…all down past 6 monthsMy guess:
CRM and ADB = losers
NOW, PLTR, cybers = winners
Likely just part of software heavy ETFs. So yes, baby with the bath water.
I think metals and materials were rebounding quite well until you-know-who opened his mouth again (with the price controls and quasi-nationalizing certain items). As always gold continues to hold up the best. I have no idea about silver and the other precious metals, but buy any GLD dip!
Have to figure there is strong support in the $65-70 range.
DJT holds something like 12K BTC. American Bitcoin (Eric Trump) holds like 6K. Will get REAL interesting if BTC keeps dropping.
My favorites theories:
1. CZ was pardoned two weeks after October 10th and as a condition, he’s slowly liquidating Binance’s balance sheet to artificially crash the price for US institutions to get in cheap before next leg up to $200k and beyond.
2. The introduction of crypto derivatives have essential removed the scarcity factor and infinite coins can be traded artificially. Again, institutions (it’s always institutions) are shorting while buying physical coins cheap.
There are a few more, I’ll post when I see them again. The higher likelihood is that regardless of why (halving or self fulfilling psychology), we are back in the four year cycle bear market. We are starting to see the telltale signs of a bottom- calls for Bitcoin to go to zero, Tether insolvency fud, etc.
Finally, the Bollinger Band has been relatively undefeated in predicting recoveries. Maybe this time is different?
Best trader of this cycle that I know just started buying at $68,500. Layering buys as we go lower.
Meanwhile, World Liberty is selling. Good signs.
FYI - there are rumors on X that Binance is on the verge of insolvency. It's X, but we are also dealing with CZ. I like your CZ theory more. LOL!
Binance fud, Tether depeg fud, etc. All hallmarks of bottoming
Someone just posted this in a chat with the trader I mentioned above. His response: “how many timeframes and ema's you go through to find this hopium.”
Last edited:
Why would anyone buy BTC today? The digital gold narrative is cooked and institutional selling picking up. BTC is basically software but not like software companies that have revenues, anssets and operations justifying buying at these levels. What’s funny is that these cryptos take a dump and there is zero impact to society or life despite all these great “projects” that will change the world. Only impact is to bank accounts and balance sheets.
I’m concerned about SaaS which led me to sell some prized long positions early this week. It was probably a mistake but due for profit taking. The bleeding will stop but I can’t see most SaaS companies revisiting ATHs until the AI picture clears up. I don’t understand the crazy pressure on precious metals mainly because there is serious demand and China still has a chokehold because it will take a long time for any of the strategic alliances to materialize.
I looked back at some of your previous Bitcoin takes to help answer your question. You asked a similar question during regional banking crisis. Why buy bitcoin and not gold? Gold is on a generational run and Bitcoin is in a bear market. From that day until now they are both up 148-149%, almost identical returns. Maybe they are much more similar than we believe?
I hear you. Although BTC narrative and global environment has changed a lot. I didn’t catch on that Russia, India, and Central Banks were buying gold hand over fist and I missed most of that run up. Those countries clearly didnt buy the BTC digital gold pitch LOL. If you removed Strategy, countries holding seizures, and a handful of whales, BTC would completely collapse. I’ve seen data that says 0.01% of holders control 60% of the total supply
The 0.01%/60% fact is true but not really. It counts exchanges, etf’s, etc as holders. Would be a similar stat to stocks if you looked at institutional holdings that way.
Unless they all coordinated and dumped at once, it would very likely not collapse without Saylor (he may be a net negative at this point), seizures offloading (Germany selling didn’t move the needle), etc. Many old whales have dumped this cycle and despite the price being down, those moves in and of themselves didn’t do much either. With all of this noise, ETF holdings have only seen a 6% decrease. When gold has tanked gold ETF’s have seen 30% redemptions for comparisons sake.
I won’t post the name here so as to avoid a political feeding frenzy from those that likely search the board for his name daily, but at least we maybe now know who Satoshi is. That also isn’t helping at the moment.
And finally, there is another very interesting entity adding gold…
Don’t know much about him but there are thousand of files out there detailing many things about him and his friends
Silver has been long exposed to paper manipulation and the big price dives are seen as unnatural by experienced observers. But even with some of that going on, not many fear that the higher demand for physical over paper has changed. Stackers are holding on and Asia is still buying at higher prices. I renewed personal buying in 2023 when an ounce was in the $20s. Eventually it broke $40 and $50 was the big threshold. It couldn't stay over $100 (a price long thought almost impossible) but the new floor tested out in past weeks is the $70s. That graph is what experts expected weeks ago (a ladder up and then a elevator drop to %30-40 followed by a new rise off the new floor). So this is a time to buy according to silver and gold observers.
The admin is looking to contain weaponized metal manipulation because it harms manufacturers (defense). Jewelers, shops, bullion dealers etc have been struggling to price their sales and purchases (some have stopped operating or using silver). The military is involved in new refineries (America deindustrialized here too). China and BRICS have gov working the metals markets and US cant be the one grabbing it ankles for them. Some clean-up and stabilization of highly manipulated market is good, imo.
Chase and other banks use metal manipulation extensively and they walk a fine line between price discovery and price manipulation. They have pros who know how and when to manipulate markets without getting written or explicit directions that would expose them to legal action. Throw that in with selling an ounce of metal to a few hundred buyers not taking delivery. That's how the markets get rigged and its on the clock now,
JPMorgan Chase & Co. Agrees To Pay $920 Million in Connection with Schemes to Defraud Precious Metals and U.S. Treasuries Markets
So Epstein.
It just ran way too hot. Sure there is serious demand but quadrupling in a year was a bit much.
In hindsight we should all have been selling over $100.
Very easily debunked but that’s the hot rumor right now. At least adds to the theory with both having likely intelligence connections
Ha, I was joking, but anything that references emails is going to be linked to Epstein these days.
Edit: I must have imagined the word emails. but whatever, this joke has gone on long enough already.
I just noticed MSFT is sub $400 now. Wow, I remember it getting near $550 a while back. Some stuff seems to be on sale
In the end, earnings, and valuations compared to earnings, matter. Is it everything? No. It was a matter of time before the overpriced companies such as PLTR and other software companies corrected. And even though the mag 7 generate strong earnings, it’s unknown whether earnings growth will keep up with the spend. And from what we’ve seen, some of the Mag 7 valuations got excessive. I will now go back in my cave and hope for a better day tomorrow. And yes, I do have exposure to most of the Mag 7 and software companies. Just not excessive exposure, due to continuous rebalancing. And T2K, no need to beat me up 
. Although I’m sometimes bearish and you are almost always bullish, I’m sure you’ve done some rebalancing and more diversification along the way.
. Although I’m sometimes bearish and you are almost always bullish, I’m sure you’ve done some rebalancing and more diversification along the way.If we agree Bitcoin is in a bear market now, then the cycle top was October 6th. Check out the post below, verified as real, from December 12, 2023. They called the top, to the day, almost two years in advance, all from using 4 year cycle math. Remarkable.