Who would you spend NIL $ on for next year (current roster)
- Thread starter RUdepressed
- Start date
PG: Portal / Davis / HS or empty
SG: Powers / Francis / Jones
SF: Buchanan / Zrno / Wooten
PF: Portal / Nwuli / HS or empty
C: Portal / Ogbole / Dortch
This would be my ideal roster for next season, keeping in mind our budget (rumored ~$10m?)
Retention / HS: ~$5m
Departures:
SG: Powers / Francis / Jones
SF: Buchanan / Zrno / Wooten
PF: Portal / Nwuli / HS or empty
C: Portal / Ogbole / Dortch
This would be my ideal roster for next season, keeping in mind our budget (rumored ~$10m?)
Retention / HS: ~$5m
- $1.2m - Francis
- $800k - Buchanan
- $500k - Davis
- $400k - Powers
- $150k - Jones
- $300k - Zrno
- $150k - Wooten
- $300k - Nwuli
- $500k - Ogbole
- $300k - Dortch
- **Stating the obvious but these are all very rough estimates. Feel fairly in line with rev share and rumored market rates in the ‘25 portal cycle
- PG ($2m): Top portal priority in my opinion. Need someone who’s both a natural creator and has some scoring chops. Would be nice to get some size back at this position as well for defensive purposes
- PF ($1m): I wouldn’t be shocked to see Grant leave and certainly wouldn’t overpay him. Nice piece but even looking beyond his recent flu-induced rough patch, he leaves a lot to be desired from a defense / rebounding standpoint. Think a number of player profiles could fit this spot (defensive stopper + rebounder, stretch 3&D big, etc.)
- C ($2m): 1A / 1B in terms of priority along with PG. It’s been well-documented but this has been a glaring weakness since Cliff left. Pike’s teams have been at their best with a rim-protecting lob man. Let’s hope we can pay up to get that type of player back in the building
Departures:
- Mark - rumor is he’s already got one foot out the door
- Badalau - writing seems on the wall, not sure he’s cut out for this level yet
- Ware - not getting minutes in a bad center room and also doesn’t seem to fit the profile of what Pike ideally wants in a big
- Grant - just a hunch, could plausibly be back but think he could command more than we’d want to spend on the open market
- Fall - no comment necessary
Great post.
There are some house management issues your not contemplating in these projections. It’s going to be hard for Pike to directly recruit over your team captain PG that way. If I was Pike, I would target a point forward type - someone with height but good enough handling skills to play combo PG alongside Francis (who really isn’t as bad of a ball handler as the SHU made it seem - he’s the kind of guard that needs help alongside him. Geo was actually similar). A point forward who is a 2 way player would give Pike more line up flexibility. And if Mark leaves I’d pick up a high school pure PG too.
Agree on your other 2 - we need to upgrade the 4 and 5 positions. On both ends, but I think fixing the D will help the O in its own right. J Mike is nothing special, but I don’t think he’s the reason we’re struggling as much as our front court issues. He’s a good ball handler and I don’t think it would be entirely fair to see he’s a terrible distributor and that’s why our shooters don’t score more. If you switched only him and Paul on this roster I’m not sure our results would look very different whereas either a Caleb / Mag or a Cliff / MJ would make a huge difference IMO.
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Good post but JMike and Ogbole must go! PG and Center the 2 most critical pieces in Pikes system.
Both are way too limited at this level and either playing big minutes hurts us badly., JMike had a nice game but it’s not something he can replicate and he missed the crucial FT’s. So even when he gives us a decent game which is 1 out of every 8 games we still lost.
Ogbole great young man after 5 plus seasons is lost on rotations and unplayable in a lot of matchups.
Take any money needed for both and allocate all of it to a better PG or Center in the portal losing those 2 to pick up a strong portal player is critical
St Johns is going to offer Francis a bag (and the Seton Hall big from Plainfield)
I’d be more than content with a point forward, just think that’s a slightly rarer build at the college level. On Davis, agree it’s tough to recruit over your captain PG, but I think Pike knows it has to be done if he wishes to cool the hot seat. J Mike seems like a team first guy so just have to hope he’s onboard with bringing in another point. He won’t be offered a starting PG role at any other high-major program, so unless he wishes to drop down a level I could see him staying
J Mike is a perfectly fine backup point at this level. Knows the system, has grown as a shooter and brings good energy. The issue is we’re playing him close to 30 mins a night, when he should really be in the 8-12 min range for a high-major team
On Ogbole, I’m not at all opposed to replacing him. I just don’t see us bringing in two capable centers in the portal, so for depth (and space-eating) purposes I’d keep him around
It’s not that point forward’s are rare. They just aren’t spotlighted because most teams also have a pure point, which we would have in J Mike if he were to stay. I consider Caleb to be an example of someone who fits this mold. Caleb was a good enough ball handler to handle PG duties. There would’ve been no problem playing him alongside Francis in the backcourt from a ball handling perspective. Based on the holes that we currently have, I’d prefer to recruit both a Caleb and a Mag / Yeboah type along with throwing the necessary bag at a proven center for our 3 top tier portal pick ups. Ideally we’d want to able to secure our top 3 portal picks, Francis and Buchanan for under 6M and we could be shelling out 2M for a center. I think a starting power conference PG would cost close to 1.5M to lure here and the level one that would have an incentive to move to RU probably won’t be worth the price to us.
This strategy would also make RU more appealing to the remaining high school senior PGs as there would potentially be a path to some playing time (assuming Mark were to leave).
Francis staying is probably also contingent upon Pike and Knight staying
Tough spot
Would be a stupid decision on his part to take it when Rutgers will do what they can within reason to come close to matching it and Knight is here looking out for Tariq. Don’t see him leaving. I think we’ll be able to kee Buchanan here too and it won’t break the bank. We need to double down throwing a bag at a center, a power forward and “someone with height who can help with ball handling” (I’m going to put it that way rather than say PG, point forward or specific classification. 6-4 or taller with ball handling skills and a 2 way player). Those 3 top tier additions. Then focus on retention. Use leftover money for reach transfers / frosh recruits.
This is a cool breakdown. Crazy thought: when do we start seeing tanking in college basketball? Could it make sense for cash strapped programs like RU to go all in once every 2 to 3 years as opposed to throwing 7 figures at Tariq Francis so we win 5 conference games instead of 2?
There are tons of power 5 schools that will be licking their chops. Loyalty to Knight is overblown in that case and Knight should be packed and sent away anyhow
Yes and we’ll have an opportunity to match. He’s not going to fit well in every system. It’d be an unnecessary risk to take. With another season at RU he’d have a sure path to a very nice career in Europe. Kid has a bright future regardless, but I don’t see a reason he would leave Rutgers.
reason? $$$$$$$$ he can have a career in Europe going to any other school. Careful with bidding too much for Francis in a war and then turning away other players that see the writing on the wall. Pike has drawn zero offense up this year. Its let Francis do his thing..does another shooting guard or legit pf or legit center want to deal with that
Revenue Share doesn't carry over year to year.
You could "save" it one year and spend more on FB of you want.
But you can't bank it for next year.
NIL - what is the pitch?
Donate $50k now, but we arent going to spend it. Just keep it in an account (we promose) and save it for a future year.
Oh, and we are going to need to you donate that $50k again next year too.
This year we'll spend $0
Next year we'll spend $100k
I would actually go the exact opposite of this.
Pay for 6-7 guys and fill the rest of the "bench" with minimum dollar players.
Spend $1 on 1 player instead of 25 cents on 4.
Jones, Wooten, Nwali and Dortch is $1.4m
Spend that on a wing who can shoot.
Get rid of 1 of Francis/Buchanan and also Powers.
Combine that over $1m on another wing who can shoot.
PG: Portal, Davis
Wing: Portal, Francis/Buchanan, Portal, Zrno
Front court: Portal PF, Portal C,
Rest of roster is HS or transfers for near zero money.
We dont have the luxury to spend on depth.
Not a shooting guard, but I wouldn’t touch one of those in the portal with a 10 foot pole.
We must get a center. That’s going to cost a pretty penny. If you replace Francis with a hope of another Cam Spencer, you then “must” add a starting PG on a high major also and probably have to do it before you convince the proven shooting guard to come here. Nobody sharp shoot drive. high level is coming to Rutgers to play alongside J Mike (2.7 apg) feeding them the ball. Those types rely on a PG feeding them the ball.
The problem is - when your not the incumbent and your shopping to replace everything you often end up with nothing great. We were fortunate Francis turned out the way he did. I can’t even imagine what this team would be like if he was another Acuff or Dercack. If we don’t land a mid tier starting center and PF who plays D, we’ll have zero chance of turning things around. Again - we had Dylan Harper in our backcourt and couldn’t win with offense. And the D / rebounding is at a rate limiting bad level right now. We need to match and keep the offense we have which because it’s iso driven doesn’t rely much on other pieces. Then - we need to land the best possible 2-3 starters (maybe the 3rd a 20 mpg type) who drastically upgrade the D.
We will be way worse if we do this. You are sorely under estimating how hard it is going to buy 4 clear starters. Especially if one is a PG and another is a center. You want a starting PF also and your top priority is “hitting on the unicorn” which given Pike’s history is only Cam Spencer. We’ve basically struck out in landing impact shooting guards who play decent D and suddenly you think he’s hitting on all of this?
To convince a clear starter to come to RU who isn’t already here, we will almost certainly have to overpay. We can’t pay 4 new guys close to an average of 2M a pop, plus pay to retain Buchanan or Francis and then also have enough money to fill out the remainder of the roster. And yes, that’s likely what it would take. Why would anyone choose RU over where they are currently starting? This isn’t a candy shop. It’s much easier to negotiate and not get screwed by guys already in your system - especially in basketball where the non-football schools have an extra pot of millions to work with.
I don’t see guys like Francis taking a couple hundred thousand extra to go somewhere that their role wouldn’t be clear. There’s something to be said with knowing where you fit in the system which only applies to the incumbent school.
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He never runs offense. Thats not how Pike wins. Not even with Dylan and Ace here. He wins through defense and “good enough” offense driven by Iso style players like JY, Geo, Tez, etc. even RHJ and Caleb (though not efficiently) were guys who created their own shots. Thinking we’re going to have a pretty pick and roll style offense is a pipe dream. Again - couldn’t even do it with NBA guys.
What exactly is way worse?
Aren't we arguably the worst P4 team in CBB currently?
The fact HC Pike appears to be poor at talent evaluation doesnt change the strategy.
If you have a strategy you believe if the best path for success - you stick to it and change the staff.
Again, fill out the bench with HS recruits and/or walk ons.
Players from lower levels for spots 7-13.
Spend $0.
We had 5 players score last night.
How much value are we getting from the money spent on Ware, Fall, Badalau, Jones, Nwuli?
What's then difference between filling the roster out with walkons or "free" players.
No - I meant way worse than we would be if we focused on bringing in only 2-3 high quality recruits from the portal (call it 2.5 big time portal recruits - 2 clear day one starters and one Buchanan level type at a position of need) to combine with a base of 7 or so of the most useful pieces on our current roster.
Do the above, and it’s not a guarantee we’re a tournament team but it’s 100% guaranteed we’re drastically improved from where we are now. Your suggesting dump everything except Buchanan, Zrno and J Mike (who would likely all be here in my scenerio if Zrno finishes strong) and trying our luck with frosh and in the portal for the other 10-12 spots on the roster. Again - this is not a candy shop. The last time we convinced a kid from another power conference to transfer to Rutgers was for the 2021-22 season (Hyatt). And piecing together an entire roster of mid-majors to pair with 3 role players (one higher level in Buchanan but he’s still only an 8 ppg guy right now) would not be smart. We need to emphasize quality over quantity in the portal this time and the easiest way to do that is to know exactly what you have to spend from the start. Hopefully Pike can make quick work of figuring out what it will take to keep guys at Rutgers and make fast decisions. Then use almost all of what remains to buy the best center, power forward defender and lengthy ball handler money can buy. It’s probably not even realistic to expect to buy 3 guys who are starters or project to become starters next year at the major level. We need to hit on 2 and a Buchanan type who had success in the A-10.
You are saying "quantity over quality".
Not the other way around.
Take the mythical $10m budget.
Spend $9 on players 1-6 in the rotation.
Does that include Francis, Davis and Buchanan? It could. If they aren't worth it, then pursue players that are worth the money.
Spend $1m on players 7-13 in the rotation (I would actually say spend less but so be it).
Do Powers, Nwuli, Mark, Zrno, Ware, Jones fit into that $1m budget?
That's up to them. If so then keep them.
If not, find players (probably worse) who do.
There should be no players making between $100k and $1m.
Either more or less.
Does this mean little depth?
Absolutely.
We dont have the funds to spend on quality (starters) and quantity (depth).
I choose quality.
I proposed this months ago when we learned we had no money
this is what Maryland did last year with Kevin Willard and they were riding the red line all year but they were a tournament team with 5-6 good players and no depth but that was the path
The pro
the problem is this is the approach we tried in 22-23 and had no depth when Mag went down. Pikes won’t do that again. Do we need 15 roster players? No. Do we need 11, I’d say so.
That was the closest we’ve been to the tournament in the last 4 years
and unless something financially changes it’s the only option
I have thought the exact same thing. This kid is getting so much hype and his offense reminds me so much of Simpson. Lot of shots, nothing goes down. I don't see much from him. Lino I see a little more so far, I like his energy but he looks miserable a lot.
Love this! We don’t have NIL. And with the rev share all schools get that so there’s going to be inflation. Have to think outside the box. True the Mag injury caught us with our pants down but that was from very poor recruiting by Pike. In the NIL era if he shot his shot with 6 guys I and many wouldn’t fault him. But now he values depth and playing 12 and is just a year or two late and a dollar short.
Knight did his family/friend obligation out of the way by fighting with Pike to get Francis a stage. It worked. Francis will get paid. They are not a package deal anymore. We can try to match but with rev share and inflating prices someone will be overpaying for Francis. 80/20 we can’t match. It won’t just be a couple hundred thousand
Love the time and effort you put into this. And it could be a good plan. Now that I’m catching up on the thread I will say 1) c is probably most important imho. 2) rU isn’t the only one who will see a bump in NiL. Most schools will also have more and prices may be higher than what you state. 3) now that I’ve seen the pay your top 6 option I might make that a better strategy. But yours is solid and we’d be better off to follow it than the trajectory we’re on now.
Amazing how the same posters who 4 months ago claimed that Francis was a waste of a scholarship & should have been made to walk on& would never be able to score against B1G teams, are now claiming RU will not be able to keep the major power teams from poaching him. So wrong so often!!!
I’ve already made a whole thread on how I eat crow and was wrong about Francis, but by all means keep picking fights
Virtually none of us - certainly including me - said we got this great player out of NJIT; mostly it seemed to be no more than a favor for BK; now maybe some of you knew TF would be doing this well - and if so - congratulations on your expertise.
Everyone gets hung up on "retained", "transfer" and "recruit".
It doesn't matter where the talent comes from.
It's about assembling the most productive talent for the limited money we have.
If we had 6 elite players to retain - ok. Spend the money to retain them.
If none of the current players are worth being paid as a Top 6 player - ok. Go out and spend the money to acquire.
We can fill out the roster with recruits and Nwuli, Jones, Ware, Powers, Badalau for no money? Ok do that.
The problem is spending money for minimal production sitting on the bench.
Rutgers doesnt have the money to waste.
We cant waste $1-2m across 5-6 players sitting on the bench most of the game at the end of the roster.
Spend $500k on a bench guy who will play 10-15mpg and $1.5m on a starter or spend $2m on a starter?
Give me the better player and deal with the injury risk.
It doesn't matter where the talent comes from.
It's about assembling the most productive talent for the limited money we have.
If we had 6 elite players to retain - ok. Spend the money to retain them.
If none of the current players are worth being paid as a Top 6 player - ok. Go out and spend the money to acquire.
We can fill out the roster with recruits and Nwuli, Jones, Ware, Powers, Badalau for no money? Ok do that.
The problem is spending money for minimal production sitting on the bench.
Rutgers doesnt have the money to waste.
We cant waste $1-2m across 5-6 players sitting on the bench most of the game at the end of the roster.
Spend $500k on a bench guy who will play 10-15mpg and $1.5m on a starter or spend $2m on a starter?
Give me the better player and deal with the injury risk.