OT: Tracking Winter Storm FISH 1/31-2/1
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1.) Complete Miss — 40%
2.) Direct Hit — 5%
3.) Coastal Hugger / Glancing Blow — 55%
1.) Complete Miss — 40%
2.) Direct Hit — 5%
3.) Coastal Hugger / Glancing Blow — 55%
Anything can still happen with a coastal hugger/glancing blow. I want this thing to be a complete miss. I'll take 40 percent at this point.
The scraper idea would give some snow to coastal sections and the possibility of a light snowfall in central jersey but we are still 36-48 hours away from even a confident first forecast
Power Grid for 67 Million on Edge as Dire Cold Follows Storm
PJM Interconnection LLC = DE, IL, IN, KY, MD, MI, NJ, NC, OH, PA, TN, VA, WV, and D.C..
morning models continue to be either extreme coastal scraper or a whiff out to sea.
No discussion other than that necessary as we sit 84 hours out
No discussion other than that necessary as we sit 84 hours out
the weather people on facebook are so disappointed. For some reason the facebook algorithm keeps sending them to my feed. I keep clicking "not interested" but it doesn't seem to help
I mean not for nothin, but starting a thread on a non-event a week in advance is the kinda thing you guys all rip on numbers for
It was 5 days and just to clarify its being monitored but not much is going onI mean not for nothin, but starting a thread on a non-event a week in advance is the kinda thing you guys all rip on numbers for
Post in his thread about him giving model outputs and amounts 5-6 days out
What I don't see in this thread is posters putting in long and winding narratives about things that may or may not happen 5 days away. I see a post that says - here's the models, may or may not be something, we'll monitor.I mean not for nothin, but starting a thread on a non-event a week in advance is the kinda thing you guys all rip on numbers for
I like #s posts too, but this has felt a little more direct.
They should have a different option: Not Interested, Hates Snow.
Well, if it involves models with significant busts....................
Maybe we need some to spice it up and lie about how many inches!!
Now that's a model I'd be willing to stay on top of!
The NWS in Mount Holly updated its forecast discussion about an hour ago. They have upped their totals a little, but emphasize that "a relatively small shift of 50-100 miles in storm track will have large implications in terms of impacts":
A rapidly deepening storm is expected to develop off the east
coast this weekend. While confidence in specific forecast details
still remains low, the storm could bring at least portions of the
area moderate to significant impacts from snow, strong winds, and
coastal flooding Saturday night into Sunday.
Forecast models continue to forecast cyclogensis occurring beginning
Saturday off the southeast coast with rapidly deepening low pressure
depicted to then move north and east Saturday night through Sunday.
This will occur due to a potent upper level disturbance pivoting
around the base of the long wave trough over the east interacting
with the strong baroclinic zone along the coast.
In terms of impacts to our forecast area, this hinges on the
exact track the storm takes which still remains uncertain at
this time. Generally speaking, the latest 12z deterministic
guidance has our forecast area near the N/W fringe of the
storm`s precip shield. The GFS has shifted slightly farther S/E
with the storm track and precip shield compared to the 0z run
while the ECMWF has shifted a bit west. There also continues to
be spread among the ensembles. One thing that`s interesting to
note though is that the RGEM (the Canadian model) appears to be
supporting a track near or a bit west of the model consensus
based on its placement of upper level features at the end of
its run at 84 hours out (7PM Saturday evening). This model
generally does very well with these types of large scale winter
systems.
Potential storm impacts include not just heavy precipitation but
also strong winds and coastal flooding as the storm will have a
tight pressure gradient with a very strong wind field. Timing wise,
the earliest this would arrive is late day Saturday with the brunt
of the storm occuring Saturday night into Sunday if we get it. Given
the very cold temperatures in place both at the surface and aloft,
all snow is strongly favored in terms of precip type.
The latest NBM probabilistic data has trended back up a bit. For
snow amounts greater than 2 inches (plowable), the range is from
around 60-70 percent near the coast to 40-50 percent near the I-95
corridor with lower probabilities N/W of the urban corridor. For 6+
inches, these probs are around 30-40 percent near I-95 up to 50-60
percent near the coast. These probabilities overall seem reasonable
but it`s worth nothing that the probability greater than 2 inch
numbers are not that different than the probability greater
than 6 inch numbers. This is likely due to the fact that much of
the forecast guidance depicts a sharp gradient in QPF/snow
amounts which is pretty common on the N/W side of the type of
storms.
Regardless of snow amounts, we have growing confidence the storm should
at least track close enough to bring the area increasing winds
Saturday night into Sunday. Our current forecast has N/NE winds
forecast to be 15 to 25 gusting 25 to 35 mph inland Sunday with
winds 25 to 35 gusting up to 50 mph along the coast. Winds could
even end up a bit stronger than this if a more N/W track with
the storm occurs. This could lead to some damage and power
outages and may also help cause water to really pile up along
the coast leading to the coastal flooding concerns if winds end
more towards the NE vs. the north.
By Sunday evening, the storm should be rapidly pulling away to the
northeast with generally tranquil but cold weather for early next
week.
Overall this remains a very challenging forecast because even though
there`s a bit less dispersion in the forecast models compared to
yesterday, it is still very hard to rule out a more direct hit or a
complete miss in terms of snowfall since we`ll likely be near the
N/W edge of the precip shield as described above. This means a
relatively small shift of 50-100 miles in storm track will have
large implications in terms of impacts.
A rapidly deepening storm is expected to develop off the east
coast this weekend. While confidence in specific forecast details
still remains low, the storm could bring at least portions of the
area moderate to significant impacts from snow, strong winds, and
coastal flooding Saturday night into Sunday.
Forecast models continue to forecast cyclogensis occurring beginning
Saturday off the southeast coast with rapidly deepening low pressure
depicted to then move north and east Saturday night through Sunday.
This will occur due to a potent upper level disturbance pivoting
around the base of the long wave trough over the east interacting
with the strong baroclinic zone along the coast.
In terms of impacts to our forecast area, this hinges on the
exact track the storm takes which still remains uncertain at
this time. Generally speaking, the latest 12z deterministic
guidance has our forecast area near the N/W fringe of the
storm`s precip shield. The GFS has shifted slightly farther S/E
with the storm track and precip shield compared to the 0z run
while the ECMWF has shifted a bit west. There also continues to
be spread among the ensembles. One thing that`s interesting to
note though is that the RGEM (the Canadian model) appears to be
supporting a track near or a bit west of the model consensus
based on its placement of upper level features at the end of
its run at 84 hours out (7PM Saturday evening). This model
generally does very well with these types of large scale winter
systems.
Potential storm impacts include not just heavy precipitation but
also strong winds and coastal flooding as the storm will have a
tight pressure gradient with a very strong wind field. Timing wise,
the earliest this would arrive is late day Saturday with the brunt
of the storm occuring Saturday night into Sunday if we get it. Given
the very cold temperatures in place both at the surface and aloft,
all snow is strongly favored in terms of precip type.
The latest NBM probabilistic data has trended back up a bit. For
snow amounts greater than 2 inches (plowable), the range is from
around 60-70 percent near the coast to 40-50 percent near the I-95
corridor with lower probabilities N/W of the urban corridor. For 6+
inches, these probs are around 30-40 percent near I-95 up to 50-60
percent near the coast. These probabilities overall seem reasonable
but it`s worth nothing that the probability greater than 2 inch
numbers are not that different than the probability greater
than 6 inch numbers. This is likely due to the fact that much of
the forecast guidance depicts a sharp gradient in QPF/snow
amounts which is pretty common on the N/W side of the type of
storms.
Regardless of snow amounts, we have growing confidence the storm should
at least track close enough to bring the area increasing winds
Saturday night into Sunday. Our current forecast has N/NE winds
forecast to be 15 to 25 gusting 25 to 35 mph inland Sunday with
winds 25 to 35 gusting up to 50 mph along the coast. Winds could
even end up a bit stronger than this if a more N/W track with
the storm occurs. This could lead to some damage and power
outages and may also help cause water to really pile up along
the coast leading to the coastal flooding concerns if winds end
more towards the NE vs. the north.
By Sunday evening, the storm should be rapidly pulling away to the
northeast with generally tranquil but cold weather for early next
week.
Overall this remains a very challenging forecast because even though
there`s a bit less dispersion in the forecast models compared to
yesterday, it is still very hard to rule out a more direct hit or a
complete miss in terms of snowfall since we`ll likely be near the
N/W edge of the precip shield as described above. This means a
relatively small shift of 50-100 miles in storm track will have
large implications in terms of impacts.
I'm sorry these long updates that go on and on and on.... are more suitable for the other thread. We are more of the quick and precise crowd.
Ok, I will refrain. I just thought people would want to see the NWS's discussions.
I was really starting to like this thread... then this happened^^^
Oh NO I just saw the indominable Deadly Bomb Cyclone Headline...
We are doomed I tell ya doomed
We are doomed I tell ya doomed
This thread is for people like this. We don't need all the gobbledygook, no one reads that sh*t anyway, we just need the meat and potatoes. So, summarize it, my man.
Science, logic, detail, and breathing through your nose are apparently overrated, my friend.
I enjoy reading the NWS threads.
Maybe just include the paragraph that reflects the snowfall probabilities etc.
.
No problem. But the long verbatim cut and paste covers that in the other thread. We like short and sweet.... and our forecast should be the same
There is a thread for that.I enjoy reading the NWS threads.
Maybe just include the paragraph that reflects the snowfall probabilities etc.
OT: Spring Warmth, 3/5-3/12+? Winter 2025-26 - Patterns and Potential Winter Storms - Page 21
1/19/26 Edit: Go to the last page for discussion of the potential 1/25 snowstorm Well, I've certainly been less interested in RU sports this year, so my posting here is way down. Not even sure how interested I am in doing weather threads if my sports interest is down, but let's see how this...
There is no reason for two identical threads. There is a reason why both are different. I don't believe anyone demands both styles in two threads
I'm more than happy to yield to other active posters. If it's better for other posters for me to omit the discussions, or to summarize them in a sentence, that's fine with me. I don't have any ego invested in posting the full discussions.
Its okay but i think for now mt holly has no clue and is long winded with some favoring out to sea but still might clip parts of the area
Per CBS and TWC as of several hours ago - possibly 1-3 inches for Monmouth County - higher amount of 3 inches towards the shore. A possible glancing blow !
Bomb Cyclone hype for NYC means bust. I am really hating on WINS. Bring back WCBS New Radio.
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