OT: Spring Warmth, 3/5-3/12+? Winter 2025-26 - Patterns and Potential Winter Storms

RU848789

Heisman
Jul 27, 2001
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As of 10:30 am, snowing legitimately heavily (1/4 mile visibility) with a bit larger dendrites and we now have 5.2" otg (1.2" last hour) at 13F (10F dewpoint). Just went for a Jeb Walk and took a few pics - gorgeous out there.

May be an image of fog, arctic and tree
As of 11 am, still snowing heavily and up to 6.0" of snow otg, for a rate of 1.6"/hr the last 30 minutes - wow! 13F and just pouring snow. Sleet line looks to be in Wilmington - latest HRRR has us in snow until about 3 pm and if that verifies, we'd get another 6" or so before the sleet. We'll see, but certainly seems like 9-10" is a lock before the change and then maybe 1-2" sleet (but likely mixed with some snow, so maybe higher ratios than 3:1 for pure sleet).

Also, I got my snow to liquid ratio for the snow that fell through about 9:00 am when we had about 3.6" of snow - it was 14:1. I thought it would be at least 15:1, so off on that guess a little bit, probably because the flakes the first few hours were not large dendrites, so even though they were smaller dendrites and very dry, they packed in more than expected. Did this by taking a 6" x 6" x 3.6" cube of snow and melting it and doing the volume ratio.
 
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S_Janowski

Heisman
May 24, 2009
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Snow turned to sleet around 11:30am in Audubon.

Snow layer got much heavier within 10-15 minutes.

Guesstimate of 6-7 inches of snow.
 
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Kbe4

Senior
Nov 25, 2025
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Still all snow here in Bergen. An awful lot of snow so far. We've got someone coming to dig us out, but I still needed to go out there and shovel some so we could at least get out of the house.
This sucks. I truly hate snow.
 

Knight Shift

Heisman
May 19, 2011
88,591
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12:45 - 7.5 inches in Wall/Allenwood/Herbertsville. Took 1.5 hours to clear a large horeshoe driveway with the snowblower. Snow is light and powdery, and with the wind, started to look like the Abominable Snowman covered in blowing snow. Good fun.
 
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Jjnik

Freshman
Jan 26, 2015
84
93
12
I just measured a bit over 9” in my part of Belle Mead and it just switched over to heavy sleet!
 
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newell138

Heisman
Aug 1, 2001
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Still all snow here in Bergen. An awful lot of snow so far. We've got someone coming to dig us out, but I still needed to go out there and shovel some so we could at least get out of the house.
This sucks. I truly hate snow.
You’re not supposed to have feelings on the snow I’ve been told. Positive feelings means you hate people who have to go to work and negative feelings means you hate people that make an income from snow
 

Loyal_2RU

Heisman
Aug 6, 2001
15,225
11,040
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As of 11 am, still snowing heavily and up to 6.0" of snow otg, for a rate of 1.6"/hr the last 30 minutes - wow! 13F and just pouring snow. Sleet line looks to be in Wilmington - latest HRRR has us in snow until about 3 pm and if that verifies, we'd get another 6" or so before the sleet. We'll see, but certainly seems like 9-10" is a lock before the change and then maybe 1-2" sleet (but likely mixed with some snow, so maybe higher ratios than 3:1 for pure sleet).

Also, I got my snow to liquid ratio for the snow that fell through about 9:00 am when we had about 3.6" of snow - it was 14:1. I thought it would be at least 15:1, so off on that guess a little bit, probably because the flakes the first few hours were not large dendrites, so even though they were smaller dendrites and very dry, they packed in more than expected. Did this by taking a 6" x 6" x 3.6" cube of snow and melting it and doing the volume ratio.
Sadly sleet hit Metuchen just before 1230. About 7 on the ground at that time
 
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RU848789

Heisman
Jul 27, 2001
65,193
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As of 11 am, still snowing heavily and up to 6.0" of snow otg, for a rate of 1.6"/hr the last 30 minutes - wow! 13F and just pouring snow. Sleet line looks to be in Wilmington - latest HRRR has us in snow until about 3 pm and if that verifies, we'd get another 6" or so before the sleet. We'll see, but certainly seems like 9-10" is a lock before the change and then maybe 1-2" sleet (but likely mixed with some snow, so maybe higher ratios than 3:1 for pure sleet).

Also, I got my snow to liquid ratio for the snow that fell through about 9:00 am when we had about 3.6" of snow - it was 14:1. I thought it would be at least 15:1, so off on that guess a little bit, probably because the flakes the first few hours were not large dendrites, so even though they were smaller dendrites and very dry, they packed in more than expected. Did this by taking a 6" x 6" x 3.6" cube of snow and melting it and doing the volume ratio.
As of 12 pm, we had 7.0" of snow and it was snowing very heavily at 14F. I then shoveled for the next hour and around 12:40 or so, some sleet mixed in, but it wasn't "classic" spherical pellets, it looked more like small rods that might've actually been poorly formed flakes - weird stuff.

Anyway, finished my 2nd shoveling (denser) around 1 pm and we now have about 8.3", but it's getting harder to tell as the winds have picked up considerably, blowing/drifting the snow, so I had to average a bunch of measurements (luckily there's old crusty snow underneath, so not measuring on the board isn't an issue like it is on grass). Made a nice snow angel. Definitely a mix of snow and sleet and it keeps oscillating on which one dominates. And if you want to see downtown Metuchen, News12 is doing a remote from there.
 
Jul 1, 2025
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up here in pompton lakes we are getting absolutely crushed and it's still a fine white powder. we have over a foot already and they're going to blow past the projections. The nice thing it's very light and fluffy I just did one pass with the shovel and it was easy to move around
 

mdk02

Heisman
Aug 18, 2011
26,674
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Still all snow here in Bergen. An awful lot of snow so far. We've got someone coming to dig us out, but I still needed to go out there and shovel some so we could at least get out of the house.
This sucks. I truly hate snow.

Now changing over to sleet in Bergen at 1:30. About 6-8" of fluffy snow about to get thick and heavy
 
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wisr01

All-Conference
Apr 13, 2006
8,351
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Measured six different spots and have 10.5 inches here in Towaco (Montville) and no mixing so far. Right now it is 9 degrees!!!!
 
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Kbe4

Senior
Nov 25, 2025
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My wife is scared I’m going to drop dead shoveling snow. She definitely won’t help me. But she will stand in the doorway in her pajamas and tell me what I’m doing wrong
Well, my wife can't help me as she's had more health issues than even I have had lately. But she does still stand in the doorway and tell me what I'm doing wrong. :)
And when I should take a break.
I'd be lost without her though. Luckiest of many lucky days in my life was when I met her.
 

mdk02

Heisman
Aug 18, 2011
26,674
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Measured six different spots and have 10.5 inches here in Towaco (Montville) and no mixing so far. Right now it is 9 degrees!!!!

It's 10 or 11 in Bergen. Must be upper level warm layer they described in the weather reports.
 
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thegock

All-Conference
Jul 30, 2012
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My wife is scared I’m going to drop dead shoveling snow. She definitely won’t help me. But she will stand in the doorway in her pajamas and tell me what I’m doing wrong

I would join a guild comprised of unpaid and very closely supervised snow shovelers.
 
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thegock

All-Conference
Jul 30, 2012
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up here in pompton lakes we are getting absolutely crushed and it's still a fine white powder. we have over a foot already and they're going to blow past the projections. The nice thing it's very light and fluffy I just did one pass with the shovel and it was easy to move around

Yes, but is Sunset Valley open tomorrow?GOLF BALZ.JPG
 
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RU848789

Heisman
Jul 27, 2001
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As of 12 pm, we had 7.0" of snow and it was snowing very heavily at 14F. I then shoveled for the next hour and around 12:40 or so, some sleet mixed in, but it wasn't "classic" spherical pellets, it looked more like small rods that might've actually been poorly formed flakes - weird stuff.

Anyway, finished my 2nd shoveling (denser) around 1 pm and we now have about 8.3", but it's getting harder to tell as the winds have picked up considerably, blowing/drifting the snow, so I had to average a bunch of measurements (luckily there's old crusty snow underneath, so not measuring on the board isn't an issue like it is on grass). Made a nice snow angel. Definitely a mix of snow and sleet and it keeps oscillating on which one dominates. And if you want to see downtown Metuchen, News12 is doing a remote from there.

So at 1 pm I cleared the board (as one is supposed to do after a precip change) and as of 2 pm we got another 3/4" of mixed snow/sleet, although the last 20 minutes it's been pure sleet, so our total snow/sleet total is 9.0". Newark just reported 9" and 7-10" are common all over CNJ/NNJ (my friend in Colts Neck got 9" of snow before the change).

Even if we only get sleet from here on, the counties south of 78 in EPA/CNJ and then SW along 95 in SEPA/SNJ are still supposed to get heavy precip for a few more hours, so getting to my 10.1" prediction seems almost like a sure thing, give the very recent NWS update to the warning, below, which says we could get up to 4" more sleet/snow, plus 0.2" freezing rain on top (but that's not a given at all). The northern counties N of 78 are expected to get 2-8" more snow/sleet - that range is so wide because some will get all snow (likely the Poconos/Sussex) and some will have sleet mixing.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
153 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-
Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Cumberland-Delaware-Philadelphia-
Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-Eastern
Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation. Additional snow and sleet
accumulations up to 4 inches and ice accumulations up to two
tenths of an inch.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
153 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

Sussex-Warren-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-
Including the cities of Stroudsburg, Newton, Washington,
Bethlehem, Easton, Reading, Allentown, and Jim Thorpe

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation. Additional snow and sleet
accumulations between 2 and 8 inches and ice accumulations around
a light glaze.
 
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Kbe4

Senior
Nov 25, 2025
473
482
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I just finished my second sholveling and was quickly reminded of what it's like when the wind blows that sleet right in your face.
I'm not gonna try to measure it, but we definitely got more than a foot so far.
 

Postman_1

Heisman
Mar 12, 2017
8,093
13,029
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I measured in 3 different spots in Hamilton. Avg about 6", since then we got a bunch of sleet. Was hard to get a accurate measurement because of the drifts. It was so much easier to snow blow/shovel right as the sleet started. Once the sleet built up it was much heavier. Was out there for about 2 hours. I wanted more pure snow its so much easier. With the crazy range in model forecasts one of them had to be right. Some models busted some didn't. Snow was very dry as the leaf blower I was using to clear the cars.

Two weather threads sucks tbh. I've been posting in both.
 
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RUkhoury

Senior
Oct 17, 2010
706
723
61
Impossible to tell up in Succasunny with the snow drift. But we’re definitely right around 12”. Maybe sleeting a bit too? Not a snow expert but it sounds a bit “hard”
 
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Kbe4

Senior
Nov 25, 2025
473
482
63
I measured in 3 different spots in Hamilton. Avg about 6", since then we got a bunch of sleet. Was hard to get a accurate measurement because of the drifts. It was so much easier to snow blow/shovel right as the sleet started. Once the sleet built up it was much heavier. Was out there for about 2 hours. I wanted more pure snow its so much easier. With the crazy range in model forecasts one of them had to be right. Some models busted some didn't. Snow was very dry as the leaf blower I was using to clear the cars.

Two weather threads sucks tbh. I've been posting in both.
There's another weather thread ?
 

RU848789

Heisman
Jul 27, 2001
65,193
44,277
113
So at 1 pm I cleared the board (as one is supposed to do after a precip change) and as of 2 pm we got another 3/4" of mixed snow/sleet, although the last 20 minutes it's been pure sleet, so our total snow/sleet total is 9.0". Newark just reported 9" and 7-10" are common all over CNJ/NNJ (my friend in Colts Neck got 9" of snow before the change).

Even if we only get sleet from here on, the counties south of 78 in EPA/CNJ and then SW along 95 in SEPA/SNJ are still supposed to get heavy precip for a few more hours, so getting to my 10.1" prediction seems almost like a sure thing, give the very recent NWS update to the warning, below, which says we could get up to 4" more sleet/snow, plus 0.2" freezing rain on top (but that's not a given at all). The northern counties N of 78 are expected to get 2-8" more snow/sleet - that range is so wide because some will get all snow (likely the Poconos/Sussex) and some will have sleet mixing.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
153 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-
Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Cumberland-Delaware-Philadelphia-
Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-Eastern
Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation. Additional snow and sleet
accumulations up to 4 inches and ice accumulations up to two
tenths of an inch.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
153 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

Sussex-Warren-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-
Including the cities of Stroudsburg, Newton, Washington,
Bethlehem, Easton, Reading, Allentown, and Jim Thorpe

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation. Additional snow and sleet
accumulations between 2 and 8 inches and ice accumulations around
a light glaze.

As of 3 pm, we got another 1/4" of sleet (1" so far, on top of our 8.3" of snow), so we're up to 9.3" of sleet/snow. Temp up to 17F now and pretty windy.

We have another 0.7-0.8" of QPF (precip) to go as per the latest HRRR, that's 2-2.5" of sleet to go if all sleet (see the meso discussion below, which implies mostly/all sleet), but it also shows 0.1-0.2" QPF as freezing rain along 95 after 7 pm (assume that means sleet NW of 95 and rain SE of 95 during that time). Really don't want ZR, but since we might, I'm going to leave some sleet on my driveway/sidewalk to absorb any possible ZR rather than having an ice rink.

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